EPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Guatemala remain limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off
the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch

[cycloneye]

Convection is a little bit closer to the circulation.

[Sciencerocks]

Convection is a little bit closer to the circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/M3N27F9.gif

Well defined LLC and convection is covering 70% of it. Pretty reasonable to assume that it is a depression. Expect slow strengthening over the next couple of days and after 72 hours we will see how the environment shapes up.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Guatemala is beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch

[Kingarabian]

Convection is a little bit closer to the circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/M3N27F9.gif

They'll probably wait to see if its persistent or not before calling it

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
late this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[Teban54]

Convection is a little bit closer to the circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/M3N27F9.gif

They'll probably wait to see if its persistent or not before calling it

For good reason:

[Astromanía]

It has three days to develop if it wants to become the fifth system in June this season, which would tie the record

[cycloneye]

Continues naked this morning. Yellow Evan said earlier that we will see what is left and right now is this.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have changed little overnight and remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

[cycloneye]

The ridge to the north is not strong and looks what has happened with the best track in 4 days.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have increased some this morning, but remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec remain disorganized. Environmental conditions,
however, are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have remained disorganized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions, however, are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by late this weekend or
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Looks like finnally it will go ahead and be a TC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have become a little better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of
southern Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

[underthwx]

It has three days to develop if it wants to become the fifth system in June this season, which would tie the record

The EPAC has been busy thus far.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like another strong hurricane is coming.
 https://x.com/frontierfcst/status/1938941897591971859

[cycloneye]

Models are much more bullish now.