Area of Interest Near the Southeast U.S. Coast (Is invest 92L)

[South Texas Storms]

NHC is now mentioning a slight chance of tropical development near the Southeast U.S. Coast.

1. Southeastern U.S. Coastline:
Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low
pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along
the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and or Gulf coasts. Some gradual
tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it
drifts slowly just off the U.S. coastline.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[underthwx]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a lemon off the florida east coast and expanding to the eastern gulf within the week, GFS/ CMC/ Euro all have something

And you are correct! Currently the NHC has an area highlighted over Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters, at 20% over the next 7 days, per the 8 am Sunday, Tropical Weather outlook.

[DunedinDave]

Tampa Bay Area in for a drenching this week.

[Stratton23]

This is going to be very tricky to see if we get any development because the low could just stay over florida and die out and never develop at all, it could try to develop off the se coast and or NE gulf, another additional problem is steering currents are incredibly weak so whatever tries to form maybe not be going anywhere fast, hard to say if it will go west in the gulf or ride up the se us coast, very complex steering pattern on the models

[cycloneye]

Southeastern U.S. Coastline:
Towards the end of this week into next weekend, an area of low
pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along
the southeastern U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts. Some gradual tropical
or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts
slowly just off the U.S. coastline.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[DunedinDave]

I don’t know if anyone here remembers Elena but some of the models give me flashbacks. Just kinda meanders in the NE Gulf.
Hopefully it’s just a rainmaker and nothing serious.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1939440572017811693

[BobHarlem]

gfs ensembles are all over. In this setup I don't think the Euro is much good for picking up genesis. It'll be a big peculating mess for the week, could pop up anywhere like the gfs ensembles show. Rain rain rain rain and rain (Florida is already wet today)

[TallyTracker]

gfs ensembles are all over. In this setup I don't think the Euro is much good for picking up genesis. It'll be a big peculating mess for the week, could pop up anywhere like the gfs ensembles show. Rain rain rain rain and rain (Florida is already wet today)

https://i.imgur.com/h0ieRTs.png

It’s supposed to rain a ton every day and the WPC charts don’t show the front stalling out for 5 more days. I’m expecting some flood watches soon as we could see huge rain totals in the next 7 days. If a tropical cyclone does form, it will be even worse. Particularly for the folks on the east side of the circulation getting the moist flow off the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barry, near the eastern coast of Mexico.

Southeastern U.S. Coastline:
Towards the end of this week and into next weekend, an area of low
pressure could develop from a remnant frontal boundary near or along
the southeastern U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts. Some gradual tropical
or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts
slowly just off the U.S. coastline.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Nimbus]

GFS probably going with the idea that the tropical circulation will start as far southwest at the very tail end of the trough or where the trough cuts off. You get 3/4 of a complete circulation at the end of a stationary trough.

[skillz305]

The recent/current rain for east coast central Florida has been badly needed. We will take it.

[caneman]

Confused as to why this thread is called southeast coast? I thought another system was trying to develop when I was searching for a thread in the gulf activity. All the action for now is in the gulf.

[Stratton23]

The development zone includes the eastern gulf, models are all over the place from development , to where something could develop, east coast or eastern gulf, ensembles are split down the middle as well

[Nimbus]

Confused as to why this thread is called southeast coast? I thought another system was trying to develop when I was searching for a thread in the gulf activity. All the action for now is in the gulf.

Old frontal boundaries can roll up into circulation centers in more than one place.
Gulf lows at the very tail end of fronts usually get captured by the following high and drift SW then west. With the government cutbacks in forecasting resources we will have to do the best we can.

Likely can't afford Ingrezza for the GFS.

[GCANE]

Watching the north GOM toward the end of the week. I think a hot tower or two may spin something up here.

[GCANE]

GFS spins up a Low-Level Vort Friday in the Big Bend area.
Large surge on high CAPE air comes in this time next week.
Big old ULL currently over the Bahamas and forecast to spin out of the region by Wednesday, making the north GOM more conducive for development.
Will be closely watching this region over the 4th of July weekend.

[cycloneye]

Hi South Texas Storms. To let you know that modified the title of thread to include the NE Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
Remnants of Barry, located inland over eastern Mexico.

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S.,
over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or
subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves
little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[WeatherBoy2000]

A bunch of sub 1000mb members along with a few hurricanes on the eps. If things align right (or wrong), it does have well above normal ssts to work with.