Area of Interest Near the Southeast U.S. Coast (Is invest 92L)

[psyclone]

Development potential now exclusively resides on the Atlantic side although the gulf side could still get hosed with heavy rain in an onshore flow regime

[ThomasW]

While I disapprove of A.I. overall, the 0z "EC-AI-FS" is presenting a very convincing scenario. Moving the 10/50 AOI inland near Wilmington as a very weak L.P.A. or neutral pressure area

[DorkyMcDorkface]

While I disapprove of A.I. overall, the 0z "EC-AI-FS" is presenting a very convincing scenario. Moving the 10/50 AOI inland near Wilmington as a very weak L.P.A. or neutral pressure area

I think a moderate TS into the Carolinas is a good bet. GFS is an outlier right now with a hurricane paralleling the Eastern Seaboard

[sasha_B]

0z Euro ensemble is quite active, especially compared to the last three runs, with most ensemble members developing a (weak) low just offshore of Georgia / SC by 72 hours, and a few of those that stay offshore longer deepening up to high-end TS intensity by 84h (40～60 kts, 996～987 hPa range). And there seems to be a consensus emerging among the operational models that a low-pressure area will likely come together in that area, too, if not necessarily anything that could be designated as a (sub)tropical cyclone.

[GCANE]

Latest ICON has development off the GA coast and making landfall in SC.
Watching the wave coming after this approaching the SE CONUS Coast mid to late next week.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening
frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States by Saturday. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow
development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in
this region over the weekend or early next week while the system
drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,
particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[ThomasW]

While I disapprove of A.I. overall, the 0z "EC-AI-FS" is presenting a very convincing scenario. Moving the 10/50 AOI inland near Wilmington as a very weak L.P.A. or neutral pressure area

I think a moderate TS into the Carolinas is a good bet. GFS is an outlier right now with a hurricane paralleling the Eastern Seaboard

The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting ensembles agree with the GFS, interestingly

[WeatherBoy2000]

While I disapprove of A.I. overall, the 0z "EC-AI-FS" is presenting a very convincing scenario. Moving the 10/50 AOI inland near Wilmington as a very weak L.P.A. or neutral pressure area

I think a moderate TS into the Carolinas is a good bet. GFS is an outlier right now with a hurricane paralleling the Eastern Seaboard

The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting ensembles agree with the GFS, interestingly

A hurricane wouldn't be too surprising if conditions align right. Ssts in that area are about the most anomalously warm in the basin currently, widespread 28c-29c ssts to work with:

[ThomasW]

I think a moderate TS into the Carolinas is a good bet. GFS is an outlier right now with a hurricane paralleling the Eastern Seaboard

The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting ensembles agree with the GFS, interestingly

A hurricane wouldn't be too surprising if conditions align right. Ssts in that area are about the most anomalously warm in the basin currently, widespread 28c-29c ssts to work with:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_sst_natl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png

The problem doesn't lie with the SSTs...it lies with the upper-levels, which will bring it inland

[ChrisH-UK]

Well most of the model;s are showing a low forming off the coast of Florida and Georgia in the next few days and by the looks of it a TD at best based on latest runs.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here the latest SST's a little cooler off the cost of florida but nice and toastie a bit further out with the gulf stream.

[wxman57]

Looks like a "Barry-type" TS into the Carolinas Sunday. Just a rain maker.

[cycloneye]

If necesarry, recon may fly on the 4th.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1600Z
D. 30.5N 79.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO
SUSPECT AREA NEAR 30.5N 79.5W FOR 05/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

[Nimbus]

Development potential now exclusively resides on the Atlantic side although the gulf side could still get hosed with heavy rain in an onshore flow regime

Lowest surface pressure this afternoon is on the west side of Florida at the Tampa buoy 29.92
Shear has diminished some on the east side of Florida and the front appears more convective there so I can understand the forecast for development on the east side.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42036

NOLA may get another piece of energy passing south overhead into the gulf tonight although none of the models show any development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida
Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form in this region over the weekend while the
system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Blake

[hohnywx]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1940914212425158734

[Sciencerocks]

[psyclone]

Some very heavy rain verified close to me with radar estimates of 6-8" around crystal beach and parts of palm harbor. onshore flow and warm water can really unload

[tropicwatch]

850mb starting to ramp up.https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=