Area of Interest in NE Gulf: (Is Invest 93L)

[Steve]

still early in the game, very strong ridge over the SE US, meaning this is likely going to get pushed towards the western gulf , but texas is certainly in play as well, especially if that subtropical ridge keeps nosing into the gulf, i also do not see any evidence in the models of a big shortwave/ trough coming down to pick this up in the models, so this may be a case of generally weak steering currents as it gets close to shore somewhere

There’s not going to be much steering except the flow around the nose of the high. Where it is relative to the push will determine. A farther north track takes it toward SELA but probably with a westerly component at landfall. Farther south and it would be a much stronger storm that would affect SWLA or UTC. It’s going down this week which we haven’t seen much in July on the Gulf Coast.

[BobHarlem]

8pm held at 20% which is probably wise considering how it is now out there. I do think the NHC is in wait and see mode.

Convection shifted to the normal seabreeze activity on the IR, however you can see the flow on the radar moving sse along the east part of Florida (2 radars being out notwithstanding)

[cycloneye]

18Z EPS uptick.

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1944569569772724713

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro ensembles:


0z icon started, it shows a low moving over Florida and into the Gulf just north of Tampa (so far 1010mb when it starts to get into the Gulf).

0z icon


Satellite wise, doesn't look as impressive as it did earlier today. The area east of St. Augustine (and due north of Grand Bahama), ~29.3N 78.8W, seems the most suspicious still, however NHC has the X a bit north of it. Time will tell. Orlando is about to get a good line of storms move in from the north (which is unusual)

[Stratton23]

ICON goes into Lousiana, but again its very early in the game and easily subject to change, but one thing that caught my eye on that run was that as soon as “ dexter” made landfall west of new orleans, steering currents almost completely collapse on that run, takes nearly 4 days to clear the state of louisiana, that’s extremely slow

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the CMC is now on board with the idea of this developing into something (it now has a mbar reading instead of being some vague cyclonic feature). Also looks to be a very small system that heads toward the New Orleans vicinity.

[Stratton23]

Just a personal gut feeling here, I feel like this is going to develop into Dexter and becoming a border line cat 1, i just dont trust this disturbance or the globals handeling it well, of course i could be wrong, but i think this one might surprise folks

[sasha_B]

Just a personal gut feeling here, I feel like this is going to develop into Dexter and becoming a border line cat 1, i just dont trust this disturbance or the globals handeling it well, of course i could be wrong, but i think this one might surprise folks

It's up to 10/30 per the NHC's 07.14/06z Tropical Weather Outlook, and the most recent deterministic model runs (with the exception of the GFS) show a more well-defined low forming in 3～5 days. I'm with you on this one; I didn't really buy the 'hints' on the models last week, but now that there's an identifiable disturbance & decent support across multiple models for further development, it's looking like a more plausible candidate for "Dexter".

[Hurricane2022]

Just a personal gut feeling here, I feel like this is going to develop into Dexter and becoming a border line cat 1, i just dont trust this disturbance or the globals handeling it well, of course i could be wrong, but i think this one might surprise folks

It's up to 10/30 per the NHC's 07.14/06z Tropical Weather Outlook, and the most recent deterministic model runs (with the exception of the GFS) show a more well-defined low forming in 3～5 days. I'm with you on this one; I didn't really buy the 'hints' on the models last week, but now that there's an identifiable disturbance & decent support across multiple models for further development, it's looking like a more plausible candidate for "Dexter".

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent
Atlantic waters. This system is forecast to move westward across
Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by
late Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to
support some gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and
north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part
of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the
north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1944606148759572773

[Nimbus]

Official forecast said its currently off the coast of north Florida but scanning the buoys the lowest surface pressure is further south near Sebastian Creek. Broad shallow area of falling pressures though. A center forming further south might have more time to develop without the proximity to land and drier air issues.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=SIPF1

[BobHarlem]

6z icon has gone up a bit, but still around SE Louisiana




Euro ensembles went back down overnight, and the gfs/euro still are keeping it weak.

The biggest difference is how early things get going on the icon vs everything else. Canadian is weaker than the iocn because it doesn't get going as quickly when it enters the Gulf from Florida.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore the east coast of Florida
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during
the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[GCANE]

Convection may not look pretty but the low-level vort is deepening and shear is dropping.
Getting some well-defined rotation on MIMIC-TPW now.

[GCANE]

IMHO, steering currents will continue to push this farther south than what ICON is currently showing.
Likely this will go over the top end of the Loop Current where CAPE ranges from 6500 to 8000 during the day.

[cycloneye]

Convection may not look pretty but the low-level vort is deepening and shear is dropping.
Getting some well-defined rotation on MIMIC-TPW now.

Do you have the MIMIC-TPW animation? Members may want to see it.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1944731280077177299

[Tailgater33]

IMHO, steering currents will continue to push this farther south than what ICON is currently showing.
Likely this will go over the top end of the Loop Current where CAPE ranges from 6500 to 8000 during the day.

Yes now that we are seeing a more define center, we will be able to track it better if it stays partially exposed.

[MGC]

IMHO, steering currents will continue to push this farther south than what ICON is currently showing.
Likely this will go over the top end of the Loop Current where CAPE ranges from 6500 to 8000 during the day.

I'm thinking the same. Should get some decent reports from land stations later today as the disturbance passes overhead.......MGC

[tropicwatch]

Convection may not look pretty but the low-level vort is deepening and shear is dropping.
Getting some well-defined rotation on MIMIC-TPW now.

Do you have the MIMIC-TPW animation? Members may want to see it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif