ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[wxman57]

Believe 93L’s chances at 40% look good. I think it looks less likely to develop than yesterday. Structure is poor, and the low has moved too far to the north. Dry air/shear are wreaking havoc. A tropical depression could form, I guess, but the rain amounts will be more important than any classification.

40% may be a good estimate of actual chances. However, we have to forecast the chance that the NHC will call the weak low a TD. After what they did with Barry and Chantal, I'm surprised they didn't call it a TD already. I think the chances that the NHC classifies it as a depression are closer to 70-80%. New ICON has a 1012mb low into SE LA Thursday pm. Yesterday's 12Z run had a sub 990mb TS with 50-55 kts moving ashore there.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/1945140963745075556

[cycloneye]

Dr Levi Cowan video about the prospects of 93L to develop.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1945145653270815128

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1945151572607979843

[BobHarlem]

That north side swirl on the visible looks more like an eddy circulating around the bigger low, it's confusing some of the experts even.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed with 40%. The biggest issue is the lack of water. It's going to be running right along the beaches if it doesn't reform to the south (that may have been the ICON thought). It probably needs to stay south of 29.5N to get anything going, otherwise land interaction will likely stop it.

[underthwx]

Believe 93L’s chances at 40% look good. I think it looks less likely to develop than yesterday. Structure is poor, and the low has moved too far to the north. Dry air/shear are wreaking havoc. A tropical depression could form, I guess, but the rain amounts will be more important than any classification.

40% may be a good estimate of actual chances. However, we have to forecast the chance that the NHC will call the weak low a TD. After what they did with Barry and Chantal, I'm surprised they didn't call it a TD already. I think the chances that the NHC classifies it as a depression are closer to 70-80%. New ICON has a 1012mb low into SE LA Thursday pm. Yesterday's 12Z run had a sub 990mb TS with 50-55 kts moving ashore there.

Good morning all!. What is ultimately steering 93L? From what I have been reading on various sites, it appears at this point, 93L may affect the North Central gulf? Can we expect significant precipitation here in SE Tex Xman? I realize it's early in the evolution of 93L, and it's a waiting process, any info will be appreciated.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Believe 93L’s chances at 40% look good. I think it looks less likely to develop than yesterday. Structure is poor, and the low has moved too far to the north. Dry air/shear are wreaking havoc. A tropical depression could form, I guess, but the rain amounts will be more important than any classification.

40% may be a good estimate of actual chances. However, we have to forecast the chance that the NHC will call the weak low a TD. After what they did with Barry and Chantal, I'm surprised they didn't call it a TD already. I think the chances that the NHC classifies it as a depression are closer to 70-80%. New ICON has a 1012mb low into SE LA Thursday pm. Yesterday's 12Z run had a sub 990mb TS with 50-55 kts moving ashore there.

Good morning all!. What is ultimately steering 93L? From what I have been reading on various sites, it appears at this point, 93L may affect the North Central gulf? Can we expect significant precipitation here in SE Tex Xman? I realize it's early in the evolution of 93L, and it's a waiting process, any info will be appreciated.

There's currently a ridge to the north of 93l driving it west. Atm this looks largely to be a rain threat because even if it does sufficiently get back over water, it probably won't have the time to develop into much of anything:

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1945137533584589156



One of the things that may need to be monitored is a potential dip to the south before a turn to the northwest. If it ends dipping further south than expected, it may get more time over water.

[chaser1]

That north side swirl on the visible looks more like an eddy circulating around the bigger low, it's confusing some of the experts even.

Exactly; right on point! No different then tracking a LLC disturbance in the deeper tropics right up to the point when the perceived LLC simply becomes "vertically challenged" LOL, and ends up ejecting as a swirl/eddy until a new LLC develops and aligns with the MLC. "Follow the bouncing (MLC) ball"

[tropicwatch]

The lowest pressure seems to be around Daytona, 1014.6mb. As of 12:53 eastern time.

[BobHarlem]

Some flooding rainfall is occurring especially near Mims/Scottsmoor in Brevard, and there's a nasty cell that could get tornadic near Astor/Pierson that cound spin down toward Mount Dora. It'll be interesting to see how much the peninsula lights up with the late afternoon stuff mixing in with 93L today.

[TomballEd]

The lowest pressure seems to be around Daytona, 1014.6mb. As of 12:53 eastern time.

I don't think this comes off Florida S of 29N even assuming the 'blob' is where a new center might try to develop, which means it has a pretty low ceiling on intensity.

OTOH, WPC has an area of 10+ inch rains in Vermillion Parish.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I see that one of the newer NHC forecasters, Lisa Bucci, updated Hagen's outlook and kept development chances at 40%. Perhaps she didn't feel comfortable going higher?

I have never seen anyone on this forum speak about an individual NHC forecaster like that. And what a coincidence that it is the only woman on the team.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Satellite and radar data indicate that the low pressure area
previously over the Atlantic is moving onto the coast of
northeastern Florida. This system is currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, and little
development is expected through tonight while the center is over
land. Once the system reaches the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form while the system
moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf and approaches
the coast of Louisiana on Thursday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday and continuing through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[Nederlander]

I see that one of the newer NHC forecasters, Lisa Bucci, updated Hagen's outlook and kept development chances at 40%. Perhaps she didn't feel comfortable going higher?

I have never seen anyone on this forum speak about an individual NHC forecaster like that. And what a coincidence that it is the only woman on the team.

Forecaster tendencies get pointed out all the time.. and I seriously doubt that gender played a role in wxman's comment.

[Fancy1002]

I see that one of the newer NHC forecasters, Lisa Bucci, updated Hagen's outlook and kept development chances at 40%. Perhaps she didn't feel comfortable going higher?

I have never seen anyone on this forum speak about an individual NHC forecaster like that. And what a coincidence that it is the only woman on the team.

What are you talking about, I’ve heard this kind of uncertainty used for many different people. Are you just trying to start something? Because if you are, please just don’t.

[GCANE]

Convection looking surprisingly better now given the fact it has some mid-level dry air on its SW side.

[cycloneye]

[MississippiWx]

The low level circulation is tightening on approach to land, likely thanks to friction. I’d say you could classify as a TD now. The thunderstorms are still sheared to the southwest, but still likely qualifies as a TD. The center has also been on a due west course for some time now. The next several hours will determine the fate. Does it jog south any? If so, tropical cyclogenesis chances increase once over the Gulf.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon everyone

I expected more rain fall here in Key Largo. A few showers yesterday, today mostly overcast, very little if any rain to speak of.