WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

96W INVEST 250715 0600 13.7N 133.6E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

06z eps

[cycloneye]

Looks like this one will be a decent typhoon. 12z GEFS and EPS.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 160030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160030Z-160600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15JUL25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 39.5N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 152100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N
131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 572 NM EAST OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 152108Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF FLARING CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER ORIGINATING FROM SEVERAL SMALL POCKETS ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVERALL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE STEADILY ALONG A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD PATH TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

18z eps, northern luzon landfall...

[Hayabusa]

TC warning JMA

TD a
Issued at 2025/07/16 01:20 UTC
Analysis at 07/16 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°05′ (14.1°)
E131°50′ (131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 07/17 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35′ (14.6°)
E127°40′ (127.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 07/18 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E124°55′ (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 07/19 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°20′ (19.3°)
E121°00′ (121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 310 km (170 NM)
Forecast for 07/20 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°10′ (20.2°)
E118°00′ (118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 390 km (210 NM)
Forecast for 07/21 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25′ (21.4°)
E115°30′ (115.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 500 km (270 NM)

[cycloneye]

PAGASA also begins warnings.

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1945306168307462626

[cycloneye]

Up to medium.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
EAST OF LEGAZPI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION,
GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARED FROM THE NORTH. A PARTIAL 160047Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 96W WILL CONTINUE
WEST NORTHWEST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH ECENS BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. FOR HAZARDS AND
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TD a
Issued at 2025/07/16 13:15 UTC
Analysis at 07/16 12 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30′ (14.5°)
E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)