2025 EPAC Season

[AnnularCane]

Well, it was good while it lasted. Ironically, the 2018 season also had a shutdown in activity after a very active June

And 2017 had a rather active July.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Its pretty interesting how the models agreed on development and then together agreed on no development. Goes to show the lack of data available.

[Kingarabian]

Its pretty interesting how the models agreed on development and then together agreed on no development. Goes to show the lack of data available.

I say this and the 12z GFS is back to developing the 0/20 AIO and one more behind it.

[Yellow Evan]

Its pretty interesting how the models agreed on development and then together agreed on no development. Goes to show the lack of data available.

GFS was too overzealous with a passing CCKW for both 96E and the system behind it.

Intraseasonal forcing should be more favorable again in the second half of July. WPAC is getting its shot in the meantime.

[Kingarabian]

Its pretty interesting how the models agreed on development and then together agreed on no development. Goes to show the lack of data available.

GFS was too overzealous with a passing CCKW for both 96E and the system behind it.

Intraseasonal forcing should be more favorable again in the second half of July. WPAC is getting its shot in the meantime.

Over zealous probably. But the track was completely wrong on the models. Showing WNW track vs NW.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops the 0/20 AOI and another one behind.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for development, and while some
tropical development is possible, it is becoming less likely as the
low pressure area moves generally west-northwestward well off the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to only be marginally conducive for development of this
system as it moves to the west-northwest, well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Another one bites the dust.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development, and tropical cyclone development is no longer
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Kingarabian]

Likely we'll see a new AOI soon. Models agreeing on a weak long tracker.

[cycloneye]

The basin for a change after the very active start looks to be tranquil for the next 7 days.

[Kingarabian]

CMC only model to show development on today's runs.

[Yellow Evan]

Strong trades and ULLs and TUTTs are very present on recent model runs. This is more typical of the pattern observed during July of an El Niño year (which tend to be quiet before turning on in August).

[cycloneye]

Looks like the quiet period that this basin has gone tyru in the past 2 weeks may come to an end as the CPC hazards have highlighted an area west of Mexico for the end of this month going to the first few days of August.

[cycloneye]

Looks like basin will be active again very soon.

[cycloneye]

And here is the lemon.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated
with a tropical wave is located well southwest of the Baja
California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system is
possible late this weekend through early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

[StormWeather]

And here is the lemon.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated
with a tropical wave is located well southwest of the Baja
California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system is
possible late this weekend through early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

https://i.imgur.com/KcMVR9y.png

Models want this to develop before crossing 140, so it will be close.