WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 250720 0600 12.5N 135.0E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

00z

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 201200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201200Z-210600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 20JUL25 0600Z, TYPHOON 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N
113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTPN31 PGTW 200900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N
135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SMALL AND POORLY ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT
IS SHEARED FROM THE WEST AS EVIDENT IN A 200902Z SSMIS PASS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERN TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT
THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

06z

[Hayabusa]

18z

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.5N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 198 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5N 135.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 774 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT. A 210043Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH (20-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION, CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE, CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY AND A
WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD, IMPACTS MIGHT BE SEEN AS FAR AS 400-600 NM AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN, EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF FANANU. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z
ASCAT PASS WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY
WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

06Z eps, euro splitting into two?...

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 133.4E TO 22.6N 128.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220300Z INDICATES THAT
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 133.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.6N 133.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC), WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. A 220113Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD
CIRCULATION, WITH PATCHY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND
5-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 220019Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 30-31C.
INVEST 97W HAS FORMED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF BROAD
MONSOONAL FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER
THIS PERIOD, THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE AND MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING
MONSOON DEPRESSION SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230300Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TD b
Issued at 2025/07/22 07:30 UTC
Analysis at 07/22 06 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°50′ (17.8°)
E133°10′ (133.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 07/23 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°20′ (21.3°)
E129°25′ (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 07/24 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°30′ (23.5°)
E126°10′ (126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 07/25 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°40′ (26.7°)
E123°55′ (123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 07/26 06 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°05′ (29.1°)
E121°20′ (121.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 390 km (210 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TS typo...

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.9N 132.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 578 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W. AN EARLIER 220113Z METOP-C
ASCAT WIND VECTOR IMAGE REVEALS THE ASYMMETRY OF THE WIND FIELD OF
TS 10W. STRONGER 20-25KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER MONSOONAL
FLOW WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE
THE WIND FIELD TO THE WEST IS WEAK YET CLOSED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE DIVERGENT REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW DRIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY AND IS
SUPPLEMENTED BY THE AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BAND OF STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW AND IS
STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36-48, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL
TRANSFER TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN.
BETWEEN TAU 48-72, THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CLOSE OFF, DEVELOPING
INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. TS 10W IS
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A WEAK AND BROAD SYSTEM AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IMPOSES ON THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE BETWEEN TAU 48-72,
ULTIMATELY CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE INTO THE
LARGER MONSOONAL FLOW. TS 10W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45KTS
WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INITIATE WEAKENING AT TAU 48,
BUT THE STRONG BAND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOONAL FLOW THAT TS 10W DISSIPATES INTO WILL PERSIST, ENDING THE
FORECAST AT 35KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, BUT NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AS THE
VORTEX TRACKERS APPEAR TO TRACK THE CENTER OF VORTICITY OF THE
DEVELOPING MONSOON DEPRESSION RATHER THAN TS 10W. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS NOT REPRESENTED THE
DEVELOPMENT TS 10W, INSTEAD FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW AS
A RESULT OF THE MINIMAL TRACK GUIDANCE, AND THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST LEANS CLOSELY TO THE SMALL VORTICITY FEATURES APPARENT IN
ECMWF AND EC-AIFS, BRINGING TS 10W ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
VORTICITY SIGNATURE OF THE LARGER MONSOONAL FEATURE. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE PERFORMS QUESTIONABLY AS WELL DUE TO THE PERFORMANCE OF
THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, DISPLAYING A LARGE SPREAD OF PEAK
INTENSITIES. THE PEAK AND LENGTH OF THE FORECAST MAY VARY BASED ON
HOW STRONGLY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO SHALLOW
AND HOW QUICKLY, AND LONGER OR SHORTER FORECAST PERIODS MAY RESULT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL STEER TD
10W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36-48, THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM WILL TRANSFER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
JAPAN, CURVING NORTHWESTWARD. BETWEEN TAU 48-72, AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE TD 10W TO BECOME SHALLOW AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL BECOME BROAD. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CLOSE OFF,
DEVELOPING INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, AND
ULTIMATELY CAUSING TD 10W TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE INTO THE LARGER
MONSOONAL FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION AFTER TAU
36 AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE UNFAVORABLY
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INITIATING A WEAKENING PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW, ENDING THE FORECAST
AT 30KTS.

[TomballEd]

If named, it becomes 'Francisco'. A name more Western/Filipino than the PAGASA name of 'Dante'.

PAGASA's names are usually more easy to remember than WMA names. Super Typhoon Pablo is easily remembered, Super Typhoon Bopha. See also ST Yolanda v. Super Typhoon Hainan. Francisco/Dante should pass far enough N of Luzon to not seriously aggravate serious flooding from Wipha. (Pagasa 'Crising' is not better/more memorable than Wipha)

Side note- JTWC web site creeping and glitchy and JMA website for TCs is not user friendly.

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎230000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2507 ‎FRANCISCO ‎(2507) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎230000UTC ‎20.4N ‎130.4E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎350NM ‎NORTHEAST ‎150NM ‎SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎231200UTC ‎22.0N ‎128.5E ‎40NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
24HF ‎ ‎240000UTC ‎23.6N ‎126.8E ‎57NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
48HF ‎ ‎250000UTC ‎25.9N ‎123.7E ‎115NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
72HF ‎ ‎260000UTC ‎27.6N ‎121.2E ‎160NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=

[Hurricane2022]

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎230000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2507 ‎FRANCISCO ‎(2507) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎230000UTC ‎20.4N ‎130.4E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎350NM ‎NORTHEAST ‎150NM ‎SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎231200UTC ‎22.0N ‎128.5E ‎40NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
24HF ‎ ‎240000UTC ‎23.6N ‎126.8E ‎57NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
48HF ‎ ‎250000UTC ‎25.9N ‎123.7E ‎115NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
72HF ‎ ‎260000UTC ‎27.6N ‎121.2E ‎160NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=

Habemus Franciscum. The good news for the Japanese Islands is that he's going to be a rather weak and messed up TS.