ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 94, 2025072018, , BEST, 0, 92N, 456W, 25, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, al782025 to al942025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942025.dat

[tropicwatch]

Talk about your curve balls Totally unexpected!

[chaser1]

Nope, didn't expect that either

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A small area of low pressure has developed from a tropical wave in
the Central Tropical Atlantic, about 900 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Shower and thunderstorm activity has recently
become more concentrated near the center, and environmental
conditions are generally favorable for some additional development
over the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. By the middle of this week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[AtlanticWind]

Has shown improvement in organization today

[Nimbus]

Even though it isn't forecast to develop before the islands will the shear dissipate 94l or will it still be a strong wave in the Caribbean?

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A small area of low pressure has developed from a tropical wave in
the Central Tropical Atlantic, about 900 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Shower and thunderstorm activity has recently
become more concentrated near the center, and environmental
conditions are generally favorable for some additional development
over the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. By the middle of this week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

The wording sounds significantly more bullish though the % rose only from 10 to 20.

[chaser1]

What minimal chances it has likely hinges on its maintaining a low latitude presence

[chaser1]

Duplicate post

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2025072100, , BEST, 0, 99N, 463W, 25, 1011, LO

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Lesser
Antilles have increased some during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are generally favorable for some additional
development over the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of this week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Jelsema

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Lesser
Antilles have changed little in organization during the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive,
and any development should be slow to occur while the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. In a couple of days,
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1947257351414722979

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Even if nothing comes from this it is nice to be coming into the meaty part of the season.

[Nimbus]

Not much there or time to develop but if it gets a low level circulation tonight ~11.4N they might upgrade it.

[cycloneye]

Next.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave has become less organized
today. Although the wave is still producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days while the wave
moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized associated
with a weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles
east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for development during
the next few days while the wave moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Papin

[chaser1]

Still a small vigorous MLC around 11N & 54W. Given its speed of forward motion and relative upper shear, the somewhat stable air out ahead and to the south of it isn't doing it any favors. Sure, it's on life-support but what else in the Atlantic are you gonna look at

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly
unfavorable as the wave moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph,
and further development is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin