2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

In new business, not even ICON is enthusiastic on this week's inverted trough into the Gulf but the GFS brings a sweet PW surge (~2.5 inches) with it. KHOU forecasting first 100F days of the summer, nothing like some showers to keep that becoming a multi-day heat wave.

18 GFS ensembles see another shot at an inverted trough trying to do something in the Gulf or off ECUSA end of the month.

[TomballEd]

I think I figured it out imgur, ( [imgur]https://i.imgur.com/12wA7Jc.jpeg[/imgur] ) just doesn't work. Img does. I had assumed {imgur} was for use with imgur.

I had been assuming imgur tags were required for imgur. I never would have gotten it w/o Hurricane2022 who sent the 'open in other tab' instead of using the copy link button in imgur. See above about inverted wave and juicy PW forecast by GFS. Noting shear is starting to become favorable (column moisture isn't an issue) as the inverted trough moves onshore. Even if not really model supported not completely ruling out a last minute, with the help of coastal convergence/curvature, attempted development.

[Tailgater33]

Looking a lot like last week in that the low and mid levels are not aligned.But By the time the low level vorticity gets below Louisiana they start aligning better as it heads towards the upper Texas coast, is what I’m seeing using euro and earth link.
Played 27 holes yesterday from 11:30 until 5pm. This just in its HOT as hell out there, with little to no clouds or wind. Stay hydrated folks, we’ve been lucky so far this summer with cooler temps and above normal rainfall in South La.

[jaguars_22]

Some of the short range models show a pretty big system once (ex invest 93) comes into the gulf... Not big as in powerful but could see a spin up if it can consolidate. Looks like Texas will be in for more rainfall...

[Nimbus]

Some of the short range models show a pretty big system once (ex invest 93) comes into the gulf... Not big as in powerful but could see a spin up if it can consolidate. Looks like Texas will be in for more rainfall...

Lowest surface pressures are still north east of Florida off Jacksonville. The Sebastian Inlet State Park pressure reported is lower but that might be a barometer out of caliber. Pressures are coming down but its a very broad and shallow area as far as I could tell from buoy data.

[TomballEd]

Some of the short range models show a pretty big system once (ex invest 93) comes into the gulf... Not big as in powerful but could see a spin up if it can consolidate. Looks like Texas will be in for more rainfall...

Lowest surface pressures are still north east of Florida off Jacksonville. The Sebastian Inlet State Park pressure reported is lower but that might be a barometer out of caliber. Pressures are coming down but its a very broad and shallow area as far as I could tell from buoy data.

Models keep it in high shear, but much more favorable shear isn't far to the N&W. Friday the low level vort gets so close to favorable shear. GFS and Euro similar. Mid level moisture/PWAT follows the system, that shouldn't be a hindrance to development. Euro shows the low level vorticity coming ashore Beaumont area while 700 mb max is E of Corpus Christi and 500 mb max is just moving into Brownsville Saturday morning. So close to favorable shear but the shear from the N doesn't quite let it organize (a few Euro ensembles overcome this for a TD, one probably a TS). 500 mb vorticity and 850 mb vorticity.
Low


Mid

[Stratton23]

TomballEd development probably is unlikely, that being said it does have about 60 hours over water , wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see a depression or maybe a weak TS out of this, especially if it can find the pocket of favorable shear, models kind of show the disturbance splitting the middle of hostile shear and lighter shear to the north, we will see, dry air doesnt look to be much of a hinderance to development though

[hurricane2025]

Is the gfs 18z is bringing it back in the gulf for a 3rd time lol

[Pas_Bon]

Is the gfs 18z is bringing it back in the gulf for a 3rd time lol

Lmao

[Stratton23]

GFS shows another system making landfall in texas at day 9, with potentially a 4th disturbance entering the gulf beyond that, its like a traffic jam pattern, big problem with the steering ridge sitting over the central us on models, that will continue to direct things west towards the western gulf

[GCANE]

Strong LL Vort in the ITCZ at 11N 26W. SAL and shear beginning to drop across the MDR. GFS seems to be on this one.

[TomballEd]

The Gulf lemon won't do anything. The Euro ensembles still have a few members, when the strongest is 1006 mb, hard to stay interested except any enhanced rain keeps AC bills lower and lawn greener.

I don't expect much here to be honest but it is our next best chance at an invest.

[tolakram]

So the letter 'i' has to be part of the url and free imgur doesn't provide it? I used giphy last summer until it was time to pay. I need to ask my wife if I can pay for image/gif hosting and a PPV weather model that shows the Euro before 3:30 am/pm CDT (when WxNerds ECENS are already becoming available). It exists, people quote Euro runs over an hour before I can see it.

I'm using free imgur on google

Imgur on Google? This is what I tried to post earlier. Other than the letter i not in the URL, I think I'm doing it right.
https://imgur.com/a/wKiMbbe

That's won't work, imgur has about a thousand different tag types. The tag you used takes you tot he image page, not the image. When you uploaded the image you will see various tags, using the BBCODE tags are the easiest. I posted this in the help forums but here it is again. After you upload you will see something similar to this on the side of the image:





If you just copy and paste the BBCode link it will work just fine. Some images require the imgur tag, like larger animations or videos. This is rare, but if it happens it will show up as an extra selection in the share popup.

[floridasun]

The Gulf lemon won't do anything. The Euro ensembles still have a few members, when the strongest is 1006 mb, hard to stay interested except any enhanced rain keeps AC bills lower and lawn greener.

I don't expect much here to be honest but it is our next best chance at an invest.

https://i.imgur.com/Y395u1U.gif

that wave coming off Africa now?

[LarryWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies had a large increase in activity vs yesterday to above avg for the week covering 8/18-24.

[GCANE]

SAL & shear looking better for that wave in the ITCZ.
Max LL Vort currently at 11N 32W.

[kevin]

06z GFS has a short-lived TD/TS from the latest MDR wave between +100hr and +140hr. Pressure around 1005 - 1007 mb during this period. Might only be classifiable for a period of 24 - 48 hours, but who knows.

[GCANE]

Experience has taught me that watching the run-to-run consistency of a model in terms of TC development is key.
If a given model strengthens a potential system on later runs, then there is an excellent chance for development.

[TomballEd]

The Gulf lemon won't do anything. The Euro ensembles still have a few members, when the strongest is 1006 mb, hard to stay interested except any enhanced rain keeps AC bills lower and lawn greener.

I don't expect much here to be honest but it is our next best chance at an invest.

https://i.imgur.com/Y395u1U.gif

that wave coming off Africa now?

I believe so.

In other news, for those that don't want to wait on the wave the Euro ensembles like, 6Z GFS develops what is probably a TS that impacts the Lesser Antilles.

[jaguars_22]

Texas could be a tropical magnet according to the GFS. We have the "lemon" in the gulf currently, round 5 of another disturbance enters the gulf next week, then a wave coming in from the carribean...