2025 CPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Here is the thread for this basin that has on average 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. These numbers are based on the 1991-2020 climatology. The next name to be used will be Iona. There is an AOI from NHC.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual
development is possible as the system moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual development
is possible as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual
development is possible and a tropical depression could form while
the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium..40 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

Looks like there's a possibility for a weak TS to form before it weakens. SSTs aren't a problem. Most likely mid level dry air and shear will keep a lid on this.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this weekend or early next week as it
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[StormWeather]

So far... its looking really good. It just needs to find a brief pocket of favorable conditions. This is looking like a CPAC classic.

Here are the stats of storms by month in the CPAC (I noted EPAC origin depressions that became CPAC named as EPAC origins)

January- 2
February
March- 1
April
May
June
July- 6 (1 EPAC origin)
August- 13 (1 EPAC origin)
September- 12 (3 EPAC origins)
October- 7
November- 1
December- 1

July interestingly has 6 cases in 4 different years : 1994, 2000, 2014 and 2015 (3 storms: Ela (a EPAC origin depression), Halola and Iune.)

[cycloneye]

StormWeather, moved your post from the 97E thread to the general CPAC one. Is better to have that information here.

[StormWeather]

StormWeather, moved your post from the 97E thread to the general CPAC one. Is better to have that information here.

Gotcha. I went back to the first iteration of Akoni and then continued to the present with the most recent Hone for that data.

[cycloneye]

Wow, is has been very unexpected how active this basin has turned into and without El Niño.

[Kingarabian]

Wow, is has been very unexpected how active this basin has turned into and without El Niño.

https://i.imgur.com/YGsPZjy.gif

You can basically see the MJO moving east into the CPAC and EPAC with that enhanced convection near the dateline near the equator.

[cycloneye]

How many major canes have been classified in this basin without having El NIño? Asked the question because of Iona that maybe it reaches that goal.

[ScottNAtlanta]

How many major canes have been classified in this basin without having El NIño? Asked the question because of Iona that maybe it reaches that goal.

It's already there per hurricane center
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[WeatherBoy2000]

How many major canes have been classified in this basin without having El NIño? Asked the question because of Iona that maybe it reaches that goal.

This is what I've found going back to 1970 (many of these are storms that formed in the Epac but became majors in the Cpac):

Iona 2025

Madeline 2016

Flossie 2007

Keoni 1993

Iniki 1992

Fabio 1988

Uleki 1988

Ignacio 1985

Susan 1978

Ione 1974

[cycloneye]

How many major canes have been classified in this basin without having El NIño? Asked the question because of Iona that maybe it reaches that goal.

This is what I've found going back to 1970 (many of these are storms that formed in the Epac but became majors in the Cpac):

Iona 2025

Madeline 2016

Flossie 2007

Keoni 1993

Iniki 1992

Fabio 1988

Uleki 1988

Ignacio 1985

Susan 1978

Ione 1974

Good information, thanks.