Tropical Wave near Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

This is the wave that will throw plenty of rain to the Leewards, BVI and Puerto Rico this weekend, but in terms of tropical development, not much as the conditions are not too ideal.We will watch it anyway in case things change.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This is the wave that will throw plenty of rain to the Leewards, BVI and Puerto Rico this weekend, but in terms of tropical development, not much as the conditions are not too ideal.We will watch it anyway in case things change.

https://i.imgur.com/64EFePQ.gif

Yeah this wave is the one that pivots NW and goes dormant until it gets into the SW Atlantic on some models. We'll have to see if it maintains itself as it journeys across the MDR, and that could determine potential development prospects down the road.

[chaser1]

This wave has "that look" and is a good deal better insulated from the great black hole of dry air still making its way across the Central Atlantic. I'll say this much, the last couple of waves are exhibiting a decent level of mid level vorticity.

[StPeteMike]

This wave has "that look" and is a good deal better insulated from the great black hole of dry air still making its way across the Central Atlantic. I'll say this much, the last couple of waves are exhibiting a decent level of mid level vorticity.

Definitely a different situation than 2024 where I feel like, outside of the obvious Beryl, the MDR struggled to produce many waves that had the “look”.

Many of the models seem to at least give this some life. Surprisingly, the GFS seems to be one of a couple not showing this wave any love…. guess since it’s not a CAG.

[cycloneye]

I expect a lemon for this wave in the next few days as the time goes by and it nears the SW Atlantic where conditions are not too bad.

[cycloneye]

Let's see how the wave does with the negative elements like the SAL, and dry air.

[Stratton23]

First run of the GFS that shows some slight development of the wave as it enters the eastern gulf, broad surface low trying to form days 9-10

[LarryWx]

I’m getting slightly concerned with this AEW based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has a TD from this forming at 168 in the far NW Bahamas recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27[/quote]

I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.

[cycloneye]

First run of the GFS that shows some slight development of the wave as it enters the eastern gulf, broad surface low trying to form days 9-10

To let you know that moved your post from the global models discussion thread to here.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 10N to 13N and between 28W and 32W.

[LarryWx]

The reason I said I was only getting “slightly concerned” about the UKMET, which was in deference to the UKMET usually being conservative, is that the 0Z UKMET is the only major 18Z/0Z global (and now I can say the same for 6Z runs) with anything even close to a TD from this. Also, recent GFS/Euro/CMC ensemble runs have had almost nothing. Earlier UK runs had only a disturbance though distinct. One has to go back to yesterday’s 12Z CMC/JMA/ICON to find something close to a TD on any other global run from this.

[BobHarlem]

The morning/overnight models all dropped this, including the Euro AI which was pretty consistent for days on it before. Good to know how it performs in these situations.

The 0z Euro does show something behind it though, later. Maybe watch for signs of life later, but I'd bet against anything happening.

[LarryWx]

The morning/overnight models all dropped this, including the Euro AI which was pretty consistent for days on it before. Good to know how it performs in these situations.

The 0Z UKMET is the exception of the 18Z/0Z/6Z runs with its TD in the far NW Bahamas from this, its first run with a TD from it.

[LarryWx]

The morning/overnight models all dropped this, including the Euro AI which was pretty consistent for days on it before. Good to know how it performs in these situations.

The 0Z UKMET is the exception of the 18Z/0Z/6Z runs with its TD in the far NW Bahamas from this, its first run with a TD from it.

Followup: Unlike the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET has no TD.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS does show the wave surviving enough to eventually start slowly developing in the gulf at day 8-9

[Nimbus]

18z GFS does show the wave surviving enough to eventually start slowly developing in the gulf at day 8-9

I'm skeptical that any system forecast to track NW is going to survive the dry air and shear.
Near 10n the waves can draw enough moisture up from the ITCZ to stay alive longer, maybe track weak and west into the gulf as an open wave though.

[floridasun]

18z GFS does show the wave surviving enough to eventually start slowly developing in the gulf at day 8-9

I'm skeptical that any system forecast to track NW is going to survive the dry air and shear.
Near 10n the waves can draw enough moisture up from the ITCZ to stay alive longer, maybe track weak and west into the gulf as an open wave though.

the way i see it alot dry air ahead likely almost gone so next 24 hours will tell

[cycloneye]

Dealing with the sal and dry air but despite that, this weekend will be rainy as it will bring some squally weather to the lesser antilles islands and later to the BVI, U.S VI and Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

The 00z surface analysis has wave axis passing 40W and has a weak low.

[GCANE]

Heading into an anti-cyclone. SAL doesn't look so bad today.