CPAC: INVEST 92C - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2025072800, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1305W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, SPAWNINVEST, ep762025 to ep982025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep982025.dat

[StormWeather]

Since we are about to get Iona according to the 00Z ATCF, what are the probabilities that this could be 02C or Keli?

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1650 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have become a little better organized overnight. Additional
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two as it moves generally
westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Since we are about to get Iona according to the 00Z ATCF, what are the probabilities that this could be 02C or Keli?

91C will probably beat it. But we could see 3 CPAC homebrew here...

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific (EP98):
The area of low pressure located around 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands has changed little since earlier today.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10
mph and enters the Central Pacific basin around midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[StormWeather]

Western East Pacific (EP98):
The area of low pressure located around 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands has changed little since earlier today.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10
mph and enters the Central Pacific basin around midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

To be honest, I’d call it bones and say it’s not going to do anything. The circulation is fully exposed.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Definitely the red-headed stepchild of this CPAC TC outbreak. For good reason though.

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If the thunderstorms
persist or increase, this system will likely become a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves westward into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Maintaining some convection for the past few hours. If it persists through the afternoon would be enough to classify it

[StormWeather]

Maintaining some convection for the past few hours. If it persists through the afternoon would be enough to classify it

And take convection has gone bye-bye again. We’ll see if it comes back.

[cycloneye]

1. Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1250 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have decreased since earlier today. However, if persistent showers
and thunderstorms re-develop during the next day or so, a
short-lived tropical depression is likely to form. The system will
enter the Central Pacific basin tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1150 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
remain limited. However, if persistent showers and thunderstorms
re-develop during the next day or so, a short-lived tropical
depression could still form during the next day or two. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1150 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
remain limited. However, if persistent showers and thunderstorms
re-develop during the next day or so, a short-lived tropical
depression could still form during the next day or two. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

A flareup of convection and it will be the last chance to develop as it nears cooler waters and shear zone.

CP, 92, 2025073100, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1447W, 30, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. Although the system lacks a well-defined
low-level center at this time, some additional development is
possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could still form
during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions
are expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.