CPAC: KELI - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

CP, 91, 2025072806, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1423W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bcp912025.dat

[cycloneye]

Eastern portion of the Central Pacific (CP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low
pressure area located about 950 miles southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is showing signs of organization and have persisted
overnight. If current trends continue, a tropical depression or
storm is likely to develop later this morning or this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Satellite data indicate that a new tropical depression has formed
over the central Pacific basin a little less than 400 n mi
east-northeast of Hurricane Iona. ASCAT data from several hours ago
indicated that the system had a well-defined circulation
with maximum winds of about 30 kt north of the center. More
recently, microwave images show that the system is very compact, and
its cloud pattern extends no more than 90 n mi across. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
latest satellite intensity estimates. It should be noted that the
formation of this system was poorly predicted by most of the
models. The small size of the depression, the complexity of the
ITCZ breakdown, and close proximity to Iona all contributed to the
forecasting difficulties.

The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt, but this motion is
somewhat uncertain since it has only recently formed. The system is
expected to continue westward, following Iona, during the next few
days as it remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge.
The cyclone might move a little south of due west late in the week
when it is expected to weaken and move in the low-level flow. The
official track forecast generally follows the various consensus
aids.

The environmental conditions could favor a little strengthening
during the next day or so while the depression is over relatively
warm water, embedded in a moist airmass, and in generally low shear
conditions. However, as Iona gets stronger by the middle of the
week, its outflow will likely impinge on the depression. This should
end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening. In fact,
the models show little to no strengthening and seem to have a poor
grasp on the cyclone. Therefore, the official intensity forecast
lies above all of the guidance in the short term given recent trends
and the system’s current structure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 12.0N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.0N 144.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 12.0N 146.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 12.0N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 12.0N 151.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 11.9N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 11.7N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 11.0N 162.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not fully sure why this wasn't marked yesterday tbh - it had model support and a closed center on ASCAT with some convection.

[Kingarabian]

Looking like a micro system.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

ASCAT data from around 1830 Z showed a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds just north of the center of the system.
Based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical
storm Keli with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Although the winds
are estimated to be higher than earlier this morning, satellite
images indicate that the deep convection has generally decreased
during the past few hours. Keli is a very compact storm with its
associated cloud field extending only about 90 n mi across.

The storm is moving westward at about 9 kt. Keli is expected to
continue westward, following Iona, during the next few days as it
remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. The latest
track models have trended a little to the north and are faster this
cycle, and the official forecast has been nudged in those
directions.

The environmental conditions could favor a little more strengthening
during the next day or so while the storm is over relatively warm
water, embedded in a moist air mass, and in generally moderate
shear conditions. By the middle of the week, however, Iona's outflow
will likely impinge on the cyclone. These unfavorable upper-level
winds and stable air should end the opportunity for strengthening
and cause weakening. Most of the models show Keli dissipating in
about 2 days, except for the GFS which hangs on to the cyclone for
about 3 days. Based on the latest guidance, the official forecast
has moved up dissipation by 24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 12.1N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.1N 146.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 12.1N 148.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 12.3N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 12.3N 153.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 12.2N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 11.9N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[StormWeather]

Welcome to Tropical Storm Keli as well! Impressive for a non-El Nino year at that too.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Welcome to Tropical Storm Keli as well! Impressive for a non-El Nino year at that too.

It's Iona's baby...that is what it looks like...wonder if it is going to be shunted off to the north....sort of a Fujiwara effect.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Keli is producing a small area of deep
convection near and just west of the estimated center position.
There is little evidence of convective banding features, although
there are some curved cloud lines noted over the eastern portion
of the system on visible imagery. Overall, the cloud pattern is
rather disorganized with the storm experiencing easterly shear.
The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, which is a
little above the subjective Dvorak classifications and close to the
objective AIDT and DRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Keli is a small
tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward
about 30 n mi from the center.

The storm is moving westward, with a motion estimate of around
280/10 kt. Keli is expected to continue on a generally westward
track for the next few days while it remains on the south
side of a narrow mid-level ridge. Most of the track models have
shifted north and are faster than in the previous advisory, and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Slight additional strengthening is possible during the next day or
so while Keli moves over relatively warm waters. However the
unfavorable dynamical influence of the low-level circulation and
upper-level outflow of nearby Hurricane Iona should result in a
weakening trend in around 36 hours. The global models show the
system weakening into a trough in a few days. Therefore, Keli could
dissipate sooner than shown in this official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 12.3N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 12.4N 147.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 12.8N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 13.2N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 13.2N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 13.1N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 13.0N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

Organizing quickly. CDO developed. Should be a hurricane soon at this rate.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Keli has not changed much this evening, with an area of deep
convection to the west of the low-level center. The system is
struggling to become better organized due to vertical wind shear.
The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T2.0 from
both PHFO and JTWC. Using these estimates and satellite trends, the
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Keli is a small
tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward
about 30 n mi from the center.

The storm is moving westward, with an estimated motion of 280/10 kt.
Keli is forecast to continue moving generally westward for the next
few days steered by a mid-level ridge north of the system. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous, although with a
slightly faster forward motion.

Keli is forecast to remain over warm sea surface temperatures, but
wind shear is forecast to increase later today, thus the official
intensity forecast shows little change in intensity during the next
day or so. As Keli continues to feel the upper-level outflow of
nearby Hurricane Iona the system should begin to weaken by 36 h, and
dissipate by Day 3. The official intensity forecast lies near the
simple and corrected consensus aids. Global models indicate that the
shear could take its toll on Keli quicker than forecast, and due to
the small storm size it is possible that the system could dissipate
into a trough earlier then officially forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 12.5N 146.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.7N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 13.1N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.3N 154.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.3N 157.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 13.2N 160.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Kingarabian]

Fell apart and it has to compete with a major hurricane to its west.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025


Keli has been holding steady since the previous advisory. Cold
cloud tops over the storm initially warmed, but recent fresh
convection has been growing just west of the low-level center. The
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC
remained at T2.0 and the intensity is held at 35 kt for this cycle.
Keli is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward from the center about 30 n mi.

A mid-level ridge to the north of Keli is steering the storm
westward at about 11 kt. Model guidance, and the NHC official track
forecast, predict the forward motion of the storm slightly
increasing during the next couple of days while maintaining a
westward trajectory.

The intensity forecast reasoning has not changed. While sea surface
temperatures are sufficiently warm, environmental conditions are
expected to become gradually less conducive. Therefore, Keli is
predicted to hold steady for the next day or so until it begins to
weaken. The latest official forecast now show Keli dissipating
by 60 h, based on the latest model guidance. However, Keli is a
small storm and could dissipate sooner than expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.8N 150.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 13.2N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 13.4N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.4N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Keli is a ragged-looking tropical storm. Thunderstorms have been
developing in the eastern semicircle of the the circulation
suggesting some decrease in the southeasterly shear. Satellite
intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC were T2.5 and T2.0,
respectively, and the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt. Keli
is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward from the center about 30 n mi.

The storm appears to be gradually accelerating and is moving
westward at 13 kt. A narrow ridge to the north should continue to
steer Keli westward through the next day or so. The track guidance
envelope has shifted northward and increased in forward speed this
cycle. Thus, the official track forecast has been nudged poleward
and is slightly faster, lying between the previous forecast and the
various consensus aids.

Only minimal changes have been made to the intensity forecast.
Atmospheric conditions and the storm's proximity to Hurricane
Iona are expected to gradually weaken Keli. Model guidance has been
advancing the dissipation of this small storm, and the official
forecast now shows Keli opening into a trough by 48 h. However,
dissipation could still occur sooner than expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.6N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.8N 159.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Keli appears to be maintaining its intensity...for now. The system
continues to produce rather small areas of convection with limited
banding features over the eastern semicircle. Overall, however,
the tropical cyclone's cloud pattern is not very well organized.
The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt in agreement with
subjective Dvorak numbers from SAB and PHFO along with objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS. The storm remains quite small with only
about a 30 n mi extent of 34-kt winds from the center.

The storm continues to gradually accelerate with an initial motion
estimate now of about 280/16 kt. Keli is being steered by the flow
on the south side of a mid-level ridge and appears to also be
starting to get caught up in the northeast quadrant of the outer
circulation of larger Hurricane Iona. The track guidance models
have generally shifted a little northward with an additional
increase in forward speed. The official forecast has again been
nudged poleward and faster.

Although Keli is hanging on as a tropical storm for the moment, it
is not likely to last for more than a couple of days. Westerly
vertical shear from the outflow of Iona is likely to cause
weakening, and Keli's inflow should be soon disrupted by Iona's
low-level circulation. The official forecast continues to call for
weakening and dissipation in 48 hours or so. This is also in good
agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.1N 151.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.7N 154.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 14.2N 157.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

While initially appearing a little more organized on satellite
infrared imagery, Keli's convection has become more fragmented
during the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak estimates range from
T2.0/30 kt to T3.0/45 kt and the initial intensity is still held at
35 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. First-light visible
satellite data should hopefully reveal more useful information about
the state of the low-level circulation.

Keli is moving rapidly westward at about 18 kt. A combination of
the ridging to the north and Iona to the southeast continue to the
be the major steering features. The track guidance is closely
clustered, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged to show a
slightly faster forward motion. Strong vertical wind shear, dry
mid-level humdities, and marginal sea surface temperatures will all
contribute to Keli's weakening and dissipation during the next day
or so. While the official intensity forecast still maintains
dissipation at 36 h, numerical models suggest this could occur even
sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 13.8N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 14.2N 158.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 14.9N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Keli Advisory Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

...KELI OPENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 156.6W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[StormWeather]

Bye bye Keli! See you in another 20-40 years!

TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Remnants Of Keli Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Convection associated with Keli has largely collapsed. Based on
the geostationary visible imagery, it appears the low-level
circulation has opened into a trough on the northern side of Iona.
The remnants of Keli are moving westward at around 15 kt within
the northeastern circulation of Iona and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so.

This will be the last advisory issued for Keli. For additional
information, see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC and AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.9N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

NNNN