WPAC: 14W - Tropical Depression

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 250802 0600 26.7N 166.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 021230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021230Z-030600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020751ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020752ZAUG2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020753ZAUG2025//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 02AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
37.5N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 020900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 02AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO TO,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 020900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) AT 02AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (IONA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9N 179.7E, APPROXIMATELY 761 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 020900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 26.7N
166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 449 NM NORTH OF WAKE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A 020923Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT
WINDS SURROUNDING A SMALL LLCC, WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER
WINDS, PARTICULARLY UNDER THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. 95W HAS PINCHED
OFF FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF A SHEARLINE OR WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS AND MOVED INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEN
IN THE EIR LOOP. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS) OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 95W WILL
TRACK SOUTHWEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TURNING POLEWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED AS TO WHETHER 95W
WILL INTENSIFY. THE GFS SHOWS VERY WEAK INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS DO NOT. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW MIXED RESULTS, WITH THE ECENS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE GEFS IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

06Z Euro AI if I read its forecast right, tracks this southwest and then tracking westward before curving to make a landfall over South Korea.

[Hayabusa]

JMA 12Z

WWJP27 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 165E SW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 030100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030100Z-030600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021952ZAUG2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 02AUG25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 39.0N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 022100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 02AUG25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 31.0N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 022100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
28.2N 167.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 022150Z ASCAT METOP-B
25KM IMAGE REVEALS A SWATH OF ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KNOTS) JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25 KTS) FROM THE NORTH, OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30C) AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 030800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.7N 166.1E TO 29.5N 164.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.9N 166.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.7N 165.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTH OF WAKE.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS SLOWLY, BUT
STEADILY, CONSOLIDATING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. A 022150Z ASCAT-B
PASS REVEALED A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LLCC AT THAT TIME, WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING UP AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION, AND A BAND OF
25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS) GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE
SYSTEM HAD BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT TURNED
SHARPLY POLEWARD AFTER 030000Z. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS VERY
LIMITED, WITH THE GEFS SHOWING A VERY WEAK CIRCULATION TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD BUT NOT INTENSIFYING, WHILE THE ECENS IS NOT PICKING UP
THE CIRCULATION AT ALL. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
INTENSIFICATION, THE FACT THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THE SYSTEM WELL BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA, THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY OUTPERFORM THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040800Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

14w

14W FOURTEEN 250804 0000 27.0N 163.6E WPAC 25 1009