2025 ENSO Updates

[weeniepatrol]

Waters east of Japan are on fire.

PDO is collapsing.

[Kingarabian]

Strong trade bursts over the Nino regions continue on the GFS. IO continues with the WWBs.

[cycloneye]

The weekly CPC update of 7/21/25 has niño 3.4 at -0.2C at cool neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The warm waters try to rise to the surface, but the cooler waters don't let them do it.

[Kingarabian]

Significant upwelling being picked up on the buoys.

[Yellow Evan]

Upcoming period of weaker trades on the EPS over the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Upcoming period of weaker trades on the EPS over the CPAC.

MJO moving through. Pretty meaningful pulse as this may trigger 6 systems combined in the CPAC and EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Exceptionally strong IO WWB on the GFS.



That means the atmosphere is trending back to La Nina if it verifies.

[cycloneye]

No change to niño 3.4 as it remains at -0.2C. The depth of the ENSO area is cooling.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

SOI has been anemic in regards to an actual La Nina atmosphere setting up. Still firmly in cool neutral territory.

That being said trade burst showing up on the models near the dateline.

[weeniepatrol]

That being said trade burst showing up on the models near the dateline.

"today ends with a y"

[cycloneye]

The CPC 8/4/25 update has niño 3.4 down to -0.3C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[LarryWx]

The CPC 8/4/25 update has niño 3.4 down to -0.3C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

That’s not a good thing to see if you don’t want above average activity from the NE Caribbean to the SE corridor. That means RONI is likely in low end weak La Niña (~-0.6).

[weeniepatrol]

Waters east of Japan are on fire.

PDO is collapsing.

https://imgur.com/SwMVlgc

July will probably be the coolest PDO monthly in our records. NOAA came in at an unbelievable -4.0 sigma

The Bay Area is experiencing its coolest Summer since 1965.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/san-francisco-california-coldest-summer-2025

As I write this from the Portland area, today failed to reach 70F and is around 15 degrees below average. Over half an inch of rain in the previous 24 hours; this is the coolest and wettest August weather I have ever experienced in over a decade of living here.

[Woofde]

Waters east of Japan are on fire.

PDO is collapsing.

https://imgur.com/SwMVlgc

July will probably be the coolest PDO monthly in our records. NOAA came in at an unbelievable -4.0 sigma

The Bay Area is experiencing its coolest Summer since 1965.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/san-francisco-california-coldest-summer-2025

As I write this from the Portland area, today failed to reach 70F and is around 15 degrees below average. Over half an inch of rain in the previous 24 hours; this is the coolest and wettest August weather I have ever experienced in over a decade of living here.

It's a very interesting -PDO. The southern region is very typical looking in shape and value, while the warm tongue is extremely anomalous; breaking records and ovviously influenced by warming SSTs. It's also notable that the northern branch of cooler SST's you would expect to see around Alaska is absent at the moment.

If this period of -PDO inevitably inverts and swaps those SST anomalies that have been present in recent times near Japan to the coast of California. I would not be surprised to see record breaking floods and rainfall in California. There's historically no precedent for waters that warm.

[weeniepatrol]

PDO is collapsing.

https://imgur.com/SwMVlgc

July will probably be the coolest PDO monthly in our records. NOAA came in at an unbelievable -4.0 sigma

https://imgur.com/B4M2lnw

The Bay Area is experiencing its coolest Summer since 1965.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/san-francisco-california-coldest-summer-2025

As I write this from the Portland area, today failed to reach 70F and is around 15 degrees below average. Over half an inch of rain in the previous 24 hours; this is the coolest and wettest August weather I have ever experienced in over a decade of living here.

It's a very interesting -PDO. The southern region is very typical looking in shape and value, while the warm tongue is extremely anomalous; breaking records and ovviously influenced by warming SSTs. It's also notable that the northern branch of cooler SST's you would expect to see around Alaska is absent at the moment.

If this period of -PDO inevitably inverts and swaps those SST anomalies that have been present in recent times near Japan to the coast of California. I would not be surprised to see record breaking floods and rainfall in California. There's historically no precedent for waters that warm.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250807/214c5347b8a56faec60eda9146ffcbaf.jpg

Yeah, it’s not the most traditional cool horseshoe but those waters east of Japan are projecting so strongly onto -pdo that it doesn’t matter

[Kingarabian]

Waters east of Japan are on fire.

PDO is collapsing.

https://imgur.com/SwMVlgc

July will probably be the coolest PDO monthly in our records. NOAA came in at an unbelievable -4.0 sigma

https://imgur.com/B4M2lnw

The Bay Area is experiencing its coolest Summer since 1965.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/san-francisco-california-coldest-summer-2025

As I write this from the Portland area, today failed to reach 70F and is around 15 degrees below average. Over half an inch of rain in the previous 24 hours; this is the coolest and wettest August weather I have ever experienced in over a decade of living here.

Models have Henriette intensifying well north of Hawaii. Almost unheard of in non El Nino years. Just shows how far east those warm anomalies east of Japan are extending.

The PDO is historically cool. But whats starting to become abnormal is the length of this -PDO period and the way its being driven by the waters east of Japan.

[weeniepatrol]

PDO is collapsing.

https://imgur.com/SwMVlgc

July will probably be the coolest PDO monthly in our records. NOAA came in at an unbelievable -4.0 sigma

https://imgur.com/B4M2lnw

The Bay Area is experiencing its coolest Summer since 1965.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/san-francisco-california-coldest-summer-2025

As I write this from the Portland area, today failed to reach 70F and is around 15 degrees below average. Over half an inch of rain in the previous 24 hours; this is the coolest and wettest August weather I have ever experienced in over a decade of living here.

Models have Henriette intensifying well north of Hawaii. Almost unheard of in non El Nino years. Just shows how far east those warm anomalies east of Japan are extending.

The PDO is historically cool. But whats starting to become abnormal is the length of this -PDO period and the way its being driven by the waters east of Japan.

Can't help but think that at least some of the current -pdo must be at least partially forced by AGW; with Hadley cell expansion and associated anomalous warmth east of Japan + anomalous subtropical Pacific ridging projecting onto -PDO. We'd still be in a negative phase right now without the climate change signal, but I do think it'd be less negative for sure.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1955977713891860945

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a large Pacific trade burst in its forecast.