Area of Interest off the SE U.S Coast

[NDG]

18z GFS is very aggressive with another low pressure forming in the area after the current low pressure exits to the east, from another piece of energy left behind.
CMC and ICON also show a weak of low pressure forming next week but not as aggressive as the GFS.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1951776366011077068

[cycloneye]

This is not 95L but a new area off the SE Coast.

Off the Southeastern United States:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days a few hundred
miles southeast of the Carolinas. Some gradual development of this
system is possible by midweek as the system drifts to the
northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent

[Hurricaneman]

Unless the tropical wave over Africa develops faster than modeled and if something doesn’t pop in surprise this could possibly be Erin, models do develop this before the west Africa system, we really won’t know strength until later in the week could be anything from a low end tropical storm to significant hurricane of the ensembles are to be believed

As of right now I’m predicting a 60mph TS for OBX to Wilmington

[OuterBanker]

Unless the tropical wave over Africa develops faster than modeled and if something doesn’t pop in surprise this could possibly be Erin, models do develop this before the west Africa system, we really won’t know strength until later in the week could be anything from a low end tropical storm to significant hurricane of the ensembles are to be believed

As of right now I’m predicting a 60mph TS for OBX to Wilmington

I assume you mean Wilmington DE not NC.

I just hope there is enough time for the ocean to calm down before what could be Erin goes by. We have had two days of fetch already with sc advisories until Tues. High surf today with 7 to 9 ft shore break.

I'm more concerned about over wash and erosion here. Rains and wind shouldn't be a problem. GFS 12 z has backed off the cat 3 near coast on the 15th that the 6z had.

[Hurricaneman]

Unless the tropical wave over Africa develops faster than modeled and if something doesn’t pop in surprise this could possibly be Erin, models do develop this before the west Africa system, we really won’t know strength until later in the week could be anything from a low end tropical storm to significant hurricane of the ensembles are to be believed

As of right now I’m predicting a 60mph TS for OBX to Wilmington

I assume you mean Wilmington DE not NC.

I just hope there is enough time for the ocean to calm down before what could be Erin goes by. We have had two days of fetch already with sc advisories until Tues. High surf today with 7 to 9 ft shore break.

I'm more concerned about over wash and erosion here. Rains and wind shouldn't be a problem. GFS 12 z has backed off the cat 3 near coast on the 15th that the 6z had.

I meant NC but Delaware is a better measure

[WeatherBoy2000]

This may have a higher intensity ceiling than 95l because it won't be racing off to the NE:

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1952109842052849902

[BobHarlem]

The 18Z gfs shifted from the North Carolina OBX at the 12z to Jacksonville, FL 18z keeps it offshore longer, and is slower than the 12 icon. It never makes landfall before the end of the run on that one.

[cycloneye]

Off the Southeastern United States:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days a few hundred
miles off the coast of the southeastern United States. Some
gradual development of this system is possible during the middle or
latter part of the week as the system drifts to the west or
northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[BobHarlem]

0z icon just moves it into around WIlmington, NC Saturday afternoon without much strengthening. (Icon also pulls up the Africa wave up east of Bermuda.)

[LarryWx]

Upped from 20% to 30%:

2. Off the Southeastern United States:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of
days a few hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United
States. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the middle or latter part of the week as the system drifts to the
west or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon keeps this offshore with no landfall. (last run was into North Carolina)

12z gfs is really weak, but makes landfall near Wilmington, NC. Interestingly it picks up more on the Bahamas area this time though.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro is stronger with this system (well a lot since 0z really didn't show it at all), with a landfall near the SC/NC border saturday. No more than a TD though.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952517106718957848

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is the convection that is north of the DR supposed to interact with this system? It's starting to look pretty good on it's own

[TomballEd]

Now a mandarin.

I think it has a better chance of developing that the MDR mandarin. May also affect sensible weather in the US

Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak surface trough currently located several hundred miles off
the coast of the southeastern United States is expected to form an
area of low pressure in a day or so. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this
week or weekend as as the low initially moves slowly westward, but
turns more northward by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.