Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support some
gradual development of the wave during the middle to latter part of
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support some
gradual development of the wave during the middle to latter part of
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/3k1Vm4U.png

One of the smallest areas I've seen

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1951820234274300218

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support some
gradual development of the wave during the middle to latter part of
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS develops a longtracker that if verified, may get a lot of ACE while having a close call to the Carolinas and the NE.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or two. Thereafter, some gradual development of the
wave is possible during the middle to latter part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[TomballEd]

Euro ensembles have a lot of members that develop this. NW movement keeping the Caribbean and probably Bermuda in the clear matched orientation of NHC lemon.

[Kazmit]

Looking like a strong candidate for first CV hurricane of the season. GFS has it reaching the east coast… would require some crazy ridging to verify.

[LarryWx]

After the prior 3 full UKMET runs showed an MDR TD this week per their textual output, the last 2 runs for the record haven’t had it fwiw.

Edit: The last two runs instead develop it well north of the MDR. This is from the latest (12Z):
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 30.8N 50.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2025 156 30.8N 50.0W 1016 27
1200UTC 10.08.2025 168 34.2N 49.9W 1016 28

[StormWeather]

After the prior 3 full UKMET runs showed an MDR TD this week per their textual output, the last 2 runs for the record haven’t had it fwiw.

I think the UKMET is an outlier this run. Every model shows something in some form in the MDR.

[LarryWx]

After the prior 3 full UKMET runs showed an MDR TD this week per their textual output, the last 2 runs for the record haven’t had it fwiw.

I think the UKMET is an outlier this run. Every model shows something in some form in the MDR.

Yeah, I just added this to my prior post:

The last two full runs of the UKMET instead develop it well north of the MDR. This is from the latest (12Z):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 30.8N 50.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2025 156 30.8N 50.0W 1016 27
1200UTC 10.08.2025 168 34.2N 49.9W 1016 28

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs keeps it weak, gets it into the Bahamas. 12z Canadian develops it now, and is much further west than the others (stays north of the Caribbean, but gets it SW of Bermuda. Icon recurves it way sooner in the east Atlantic (closer to the Euro) when it feels the pull of 95L (actually gets in between 95L and the "wake of 95L development" area the GFS forecasts)

[StormWeather]

After the prior 3 full UKMET runs showed an MDR TD this week per their textual output, the last 2 runs for the record haven’t had it fwiw.

I think the UKMET is an outlier this run. Every model shows something in some form in the MDR.

Yeah, I just added this to my prior post:

The last two full runs of the UKMET instead develop it well north of the MDR. This is from the latest (12Z):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 30.8N 50.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2025 156 30.8N 50.0W 1016 27
1200UTC 10.08.2025 168 34.2N 49.9W 1016 28

This is definitely interesting. The Atlantic MDR lately has started ramping up by mid to late August, but we are at the beginning of August and already the models are lighting up.

30.8N 50.0W is just to the north of our current MDR AoI.

[LarryWx]

Looking like a strong candidate for first CV hurricane of the season. GFS has it reaching the east coast… would require some crazy ridging to verify.

Whereas the odds of it getting all of the way to the Conus, assuming it were to actually become a TS well out in the MDR, are almost always not high at this far out stage, the concern I have is that the MJO may then get stuck in phase 2. That has by a significant margin been the MJO phase (whether inside or outside the circle) when the most (major) hurricanes have hit the Conus during the months July-Sept. for the period 1975-2024. So, even if this one fails to threaten, there may be others to watch. I hope to post more about that later. Regardless, it’s still very early and there’s no need to get overly worried. The risk to the US may actually be higher if it were to stay weak E of the Caribbean.

[TomballEd]

GFS ensembles backing up earlier Euro ensembles on the first wave. Not quite as enthusiastic on development. A couple of the ensemble members on that wave don't recurve the wave but most agree with the Euro. Some GFS ensemble develop another wave after and a few more of those look to stay S with some Florida hits and ECUSA close calls. A couple of those make the Gulf, which also has a non-tropical to tropical system, most of those mid-latitude to tropical systems stay near the ECUSA.

EC weeklies, 2 weeks and beyond, favor systems recurving near ECUSA with some making landfall, and a few of those systems, not many, leak into the Gulf. Exciting times coming, maybe both the first hurricane next weekend and maybe first major a couple of days beyond that. As noted in some of the Twitter posts above the pattern is a threatening one for the East Coast USA.

Looks like pattern the next 2 weeks and beyond will favor systems that do form threatening the NE Caribbean and then near/into ECUSA but the Gulf isn't completely in the clear.

[Cpv17]

GFS ensembles backing up earlier Euro ensembles on the first wave. Not quite as enthusiastic on development. A couple of the ensemble members on that wave don't recurve the wave but most agree with the Euro. Some GFS ensemble develop another wave after and a few more of those look to stay S with some Florida hits and ECUSA close calls. A couple of those make the Gulf, which also has a non-tropical to tropical system, most of those mid-latitude to tropical systems stay near the ECUSA.

EC weeklies, 2 weeks and beyond, favor systems recurving near ECUSA with some making landfall, and a few of those systems, not many, leak into the Gulf. Exciting times coming, maybe both the first hurricane next weekend and maybe first major a couple of days beyond that. As noted in some of the Twitter posts above the pattern is a threatening one for the East Coast USA.

Looks like pattern the next 2 weeks and beyond will favor systems that do form threatening the NE Caribbean and then near/into ECUSA but the Gulf isn't completely in the clear.

https://i.imgur.com/bGwNxeK.png

Looks more like tracks you’d see in October, not August.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Monday. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[TomballEd]

GFS ensembles backing up earlier Euro ensembles on the first wave. Not quite as enthusiastic on development. A couple of the ensemble members on that wave don't recurve the wave but most agree with the Euro. Some GFS ensemble develop another wave after and a few more of those look to stay S with some Florida hits and ECUSA close calls. A couple of those make the Gulf, which also has a non-tropical to tropical system, most of those mid-latitude to tropical systems stay near the ECUSA.

EC weeklies, 2 weeks and beyond, favor systems recurving near ECUSA with some making landfall, and a few of those systems, not many, leak into the Gulf. Exciting times coming, maybe both the first hurricane next weekend and maybe first major a couple of days beyond that. As noted in some of the Twitter posts above the pattern is a threatening one for the East Coast USA.

Looks like pattern the next 2 weeks and beyond will favor systems that do form threatening the NE Caribbean and then near/into ECUSA but the Gulf isn't completely in the clear.

https://i.imgur.com/bGwNxeK.png

Looks more like tracks you’d see in October, not August.

October, more form into the Caribbean and then come N to threaten the Greater Antilles or the E half of the Gulf. I was born in NYC and grew up on Long Island, this is a classic track and a not untypical Cat 5 track into the Florida Gulf Coast.

[Cpv17]

GFS ensembles backing up earlier Euro ensembles on the first wave. Not quite as enthusiastic on development. A couple of the ensemble members on that wave don't recurve the wave but most agree with the Euro. Some GFS ensemble develop another wave after and a few more of those look to stay S with some Florida hits and ECUSA close calls. A couple of those make the Gulf, which also has a non-tropical to tropical system, most of those mid-latitude to tropical systems stay near the ECUSA.

EC weeklies, 2 weeks and beyond, favor systems recurving near ECUSA with some making landfall, and a few of those systems, not many, leak into the Gulf. Exciting times coming, maybe both the first hurricane next weekend and maybe first major a couple of days beyond that. As noted in some of the Twitter posts above the pattern is a threatening one for the East Coast USA.

Looks like pattern the next 2 weeks and beyond will favor systems that do form threatening the NE Caribbean and then near/into ECUSA but the Gulf isn't completely in the clear.

https://i.imgur.com/bGwNxeK.png

Looks more like tracks you’d see in October, not August.

October, more form into the Caribbean and then come N to threaten the Greater Antilles or the E half of the Gulf. I was born in NYC and grew up on Long Island, this is a classic track and a not untypical Cat 5 track into the Florida Gulf Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/jXk3Ds1.png
https://i.imgur.com/Cvcgfv2.png

Not used to seeing storms recurve in August. Will be a season with very few if any landfalls if that keeps up. Doubt it will though.