ATL: DEXTER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

hmm

[aspen]

Getting close to being named. Still looks to be attached to the front though.....MGC

The partially exposed circulation looks very healthy and distinct, it may be separated by now.

Probably the best-looking system of the season so far…which is a low bar but it’s something lol.

[StormWeather]

1. Western Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles
east of the North Carolina coast. The low is producing gale-force
winds, and it appears that the system is becoming separated from
the nearby frontal zone to its north and west. If the shower
and thunderstorm activity persists, the low would continue to
acquire tropical characteristics, with a tropical storm likely to
form later tonight or on Monday while moving east-northeastward at
10 to 15 mph over the western Atlantic, away from the coast of North
Carolina. For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2025080400, , BEST, 0, 340N, 699W, 35, 1006, LO

[Sciencerocks]

I'll just say that a duck is a duck and a chicken is a chicken. And frankly it is what it is. Sure it won't effect land but that doesn't change the reality that it has a closed LLC with sustained convection for the past 12+ hours with tropical storm force winds.

Of course it is up to the nhc to make the move but one is allowed to hold such opinions.

[AJC3]

I'll just say that a duck is a duck and a chicken is a chicken. And frankly this is what it is. Sure it won't effect land but that doesn't change the reality that it is a closed LLC with sustained convection for the past 12+ hours with tropical storm force winds.

What we have here is a frontal hybrid. The low has central convection as you would see in a TC, but is still embedded within the sprawling frontal zone that extends NE from the GA coast to the low, and then farther NE into the Atlantic, as analyzed by WPC/OPC. Buoy/METAR obs clearly trace the boundary out with a distinct wind shift on either side. As typically occurs over water, the discontinuity in temps/dew points is becoming increasingly diffuse (ill-defined) as the post-frontal air mass to the north undergoes marine modification. Either the low will separate itself, or the front decay enough (into a broad trough) for the low to be classified - if not by 11 PM, then tomorrow.

[sasha_B]

I'll just say that a duck is a duck and a chicken is a chicken. And frankly it is what it is. Sure it won't effect land but that doesn't change the reality that it has a closed LLC with sustained convection for the past 12+ hours with tropical storm force winds.

Of course it is up to the nhc to make the move but one is allowed to hold such opinions.

Agreed. There was more ambiguity earlier today (12～15Z) but as of this evening (EST/local time) 95L appears to have all of the characteristics of a tropical storm. Perhaps the NHC is waiting for more recent scatterometry or microwave imagery to confirm that the (probable) cyclone has fully detached from the front - there hasn't been a complete ASCAT pass or MW image since this morning - but either way, TCs with a less clear-cut presentation on LWIR/Vis. satellite have been classified this year.

[Nimbus]

For shipping interests they might call it at 11 PM?
Definitely a low level circulation.

[zzzh]

AL, 04, 2025080400, , BEST, 0, 340N, 699W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEXTER, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, TRANSITIONED, alA52025 to al042025,

[ScottNAtlanta]

At this point, it's even producing cirrus outflow. Don't see much of that on a frontal low.

[BobHarlem]

AL, 04, 2025080400, , BEST, 0, 340N, 699W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEXTER, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, TRANSITIONED, alA52025 to al042025,

I'm not seeing that on https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D ? where did you get that one

[cycloneye]

AL, 04, 2025080400, , BEST, 0, 340N, 699W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEXTER, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, TRANSITIONED, alA52025 to al042025,

I'm not seeing that on https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D ? where did you get that one

Here.

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/geoips/ ... ector_file

[cycloneye]

Even if best track has Dexter, until is oficial from NHC, we dont change the titles of threads.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

IMO a really cool hurricane name wasted on a wimpy system…

[SconnieCane]

IMO a really cool hurricane name wasted on a wimpy system…

"Dee Dee, get out of my lab-o-ratory before I blow you away!"