2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs take on that wake area


After this, it goes on to stay just offshore of Delaware, and then goes over Martha's VIneyard then into Nova Scotia. (hovering just over 1000mb)

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm starting to think whatever comes after 95l is going to get trapped under high pressure that is building in behind 95L. Those SW movements are a little more believable now.

[ronjon]

18z GFS has a 952 mb major cane hitting Ft Piece on the FL east coast moving W-NW across the peninsula. Fortunately it's 11 days out.

[BobHarlem]

This 18z GFS loop shows the new Atlantic area going into Georiga, the area off africa slamming into East Central Florida, (better image in the wave thread) , but the reason the loop is here is to point out the gulf thing that goes across into Houston. Either way I think it's going to get really hectic in here over the next few weeks.

[Stratton23]

whats that little feature going into texas on the GFS?

[OuterBanker]

Windshield wipers on for Fernand (interesting, only one d). I don't know anyone named Fernand.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw because this is just a fantasy range operational but since operationals are being posted: 0Z Euro develops the AEW after the AOI responsible for the mandarin shading on the TWO and has a 978 mb H NW of Jamaica at 360 moving W. Mainly “for entertainment”.

But I will repeat that the projection of a potential extended period in MJO phase 2 does tell me that the Conus may be in more danger than normal starting next week. US MH hits during phase 2 (either inside or outside the circle) during July-Sep since 1975: Ida (2021), Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Bret (1999), Emily (1993), Hugo (1989), Frederic (1979), Eloise (1975)….that’s 9 of 23 (39%) Jul-Sep Conus MH hits 1975-2024 just during phase 2, alone! That’s more than double the ~17% of days in phase 2.

[SconnieCane]

0Z GFS remained consistent with a hurricane in the same general area/timeframe as the 18Z. 06Z coming in now...

Edit *Forgot there's already a thread for the wave that would develop from.

[chris_fit]

This might be a sign that the Atlantic MDR is about to wake up. The is the most aggressive I have seen the EC ensembles get so far.

PS, Glad to be back in. For the last couple of months or so I was not able to get in, it showed an error on the page, as if the site was down, then one day I tried with my wife's phone and the site worked but with my phone and laptop it was still showing an Error on the screen, too weird. So I just gave up after weeks of trying, this week I tried out of the blue and now it works for me. I wonder if any of you had the same problem.

https://i.imgur.com/NhVH2cA.png

Weird what you describe to see on two devices. Could have been a cache issue. Periodically clear out your browser cache. I have been getting in the last few months so I think it was something local on your end. Glad to see you back just in time for the action.

I have the exact same problem, and have been for weeks/maybe months. I wonder if your ISP/Internet Provider is Frontier?

I have to turn off my WIFI (Frontier) to be able to access storm2k. My cell Network is TMOBILE. I can also access the site fine from work (not Frontier ISP.) What is even more interesting, is that if I go to a friend's house or a business that uses Frontier, I also cannot access storm2k. Has to be some kind a routing issue on the back end between Frontier and Storm2k - and nothing at the local router level. If I turn on a VPN, I can access the sites just fine. Tablet, Desktop, Laptop, Phone - Behavior is the same - cannot access storm2k if using Frontier as the ISP. If I bring any of those devices to a non-Frontier connection, works fine, so not a cache issue.

I tried using various public DNS Servers and it does not help, so I don't think it's a local DNS issue either.


Not sure where else to post this, but here's something for the admins...


TRACERT of when I am able to access storm2k

Tracing route to storm2k.org [38.135.49.11]
over a maximum of 30 hops:

1 37 ms 37 ms 37 ms 10.87.96.2
2 38 ms 37 ms 38 ms 169.127.78.73
3 38 ms 37 ms 37 ms 10.120.1.1
4 38 ms 38 ms 39 ms 10.244.254.224
5 41 ms 41 ms 41 ms 0.xe-5-2-2.GW13.NYC1.ALTER.NET [157.130.250.189]
6 * * * Request timed out.
7 * * * Request timed out.
8 * 74 ms 74 ms ae8.0.ear3.Dallas1.net.lumen.tech [4.69.210.145]
9 75 ms 76 ms 76 ms 65.56.126.74
10 78 ms 79 ms 79 ms vl412.ar7.da4.evocative.net [170.75.253.101]
11 74 ms 74 ms 74 ms 38.135.49.11

Trace complete.



TRACERT of when I am able to access storm2k (Frontier ISP):

Tracing route to storm2k.org [38.135.49.11]
over a maximum of 30 hops:

1 1 ms <1 ms <1 ms 192.168.68.1
2 3 ms 6 ms 2 ms 47-205-74-1.fdr01.prsh.fl.ip.frontiernet.net [47.205.74.1]
3 7 ms 6 ms 7 ms 184-19-249-144.e12134e965f841d8ffae9bf31bcda260.ip.frontiernet.net [184.19.249.144]
4 11 ms 11 ms 13 ms ae11---0.scr03.mias.fl.frontiernet.net [74.40.10.180]
5 16 ms 15 ms 15 ms ae0---0.cbr05.mias.fl.frontiernet.net [45.52.201.153]
6 * * * Request timed out.
7 11 ms 10 ms 15 ms be2085.ccr81.mia03.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.167.186]
8 31 ms 32 ms 36 ms port-channel8472.ccr91.jan02.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.3.145]
9 42 ms 40 ms 39 ms be8121.ccr31.dfw01.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.40.249]
10 39 ms 42 ms 41 ms be8551.rcr71.b059724-0.dfw01.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.92.105]
11 45 ms 42 ms 42 ms be4693.nr61.b059724-0.dfw01.atlas.cogentco.com [154.24.5.166]
12 42 ms 39 ms 41 ms 38.140.119.138
13 49 ms 41 ms 42 ms vl411.ar7.da4.evocative.net [170.75.253.103]
14 * * * Request timed out.
15 * * * Request timed out.
16 * * * Request timed out.
17 * * * Request timed out.
18 * * * Request timed out.
19 * * * Request timed out.
20 * * * Request timed out.
21 * * * Request timed out. (it continues to timeout forever)

[DunedinDave]

18z GFS has a 952 mb major cane hitting Ft Piece on the FL east coast moving W-NW across the peninsula. Fortunately it's 11 days out.

Yeah i think we found out in June just how bad the GFS is at anything over 7 days. For three weeks, they had a long term phantom storm in Carib that just never developed.

That said, it is Cape Verde season. It’s going to be more active than last year. Storms will start rolling across. Even the Euro has hinted at that. The BH is stronger this year than the last few so storms are more likely to track closer to the US.

[WeatherBoy2000]

18z GFS has a 952 mb major cane hitting Ft Piece on the FL east coast moving W-NW across the peninsula. Fortunately it's 11 days out.

Yeah i think we found out in June just how bad the GFS is at anything over 7 days. For three weeks, they had a long term phantom storm in Carib that just never developed.

That said, it is Cape Verde season. It’s going to be more active than last year. Storms will start rolling across. Even the Euro has hinted at that. The BH is stronger this year than the last few so storms are more likely to track closer to the US.

Not just this year, the gfs has always loved blowing up CAGs in the long range. Although the high intensity bias is there with any disturbance, the gfs is usually not as bad with tropical waves.

[BobHarlem]

Off the radar, a pretty long shot, but a few of the euro ensembles show something developing in/around the Bahamas from what used to be 94L next Monday or so. (easy to mix with the lemon area, but it's different. google's model shows something in the Gulf from this area too, a few hints of hurricane in them.
Euro's ensembles in a week that cross Florida:


Long term on the google model looks like someone knocked over a pepper shaker filled with ice cream sprinkles all across the Atlantic...

I guess the equivalent of "arrrr. there be dragons in Mid August"


6z Euro Ai has a area going over Haiti -- the area behind the wave just off Africa now. (last run had it recurving just west of Bermuda) It curves the current 50% area well before Bermuda.

[ColdFusion]

This might be a sign that the Atlantic MDR is about to wake up. The is the most aggressive I have seen the EC ensembles get so far.

PS, Glad to be back in. For the last couple of months or so I was not able to get in, it showed an error on the page, as if the site was down, then one day I tried with my wife's phone and the site worked but with my phone and laptop it was still showing an Error on the screen, too weird. So I just gave up after weeks of trying, this week I tried out of the blue and now it works for me. I wonder if any of you had the same problem.

https://i.imgur.com/NhVH2cA.png

Weird what you describe to see on two devices. Could have been a cache issue. Periodically clear out your browser cache. I have been getting in the last few months so I think it was something local on your end. Glad to see you back just in time for the action.

I have the exact same problem, and have been for weeks/maybe months. I wonder if your ISP/Internet Provider is Frontier?

I have to turn off my WIFI (Frontier) to be able to access storm2k. My cell Network is TMOBILE. I can also access the site fine from work (not Frontier ISP.) What is even more interesting, is that if I go to a friend's house or a business that uses Frontier, I also cannot access storm2k. Has to be some kind a routing issue on the back end between Frontier and Storm2k - and nothing at the local router level. If I turn on a VPN, I can access the sites just fine. Tablet, Desktop, Laptop, Phone - Behavior is the same - cannot access storm2k if using Frontier as the ISP. If I bring any of those devices to a non-Frontier connection, works fine, so not a cache issue.

I am in Dallas and also am unable to access this site from home (Frontier), but have no problem at work (ATT).

For weeks I just assumed that you guys were shutting the site down after hours or having site stability problems in the evenings.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro decided to go nuts with the system east of the one near the cabo verde:
I don't recall seeing the euro ever this aggressive with something this far out.

[BobHarlem]

Attempts to describe the flakiness of models:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952439813619003854



also followed with a post about Euro Ensembles with signals the above may be changing mid month. Which is a good way to round out the best takeaway of some of the longer range models runs lately.

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1952439387570004282

[TomballEd]

Weird what you describe to see on two devices. Could have been a cache issue. Periodically clear out your browser cache. I have been getting in the last few months so I think it was something local on your end. Glad to see you back just in time for the action.

I have the exact same problem, and have been for weeks/maybe months. I wonder if your ISP/Internet Provider is Frontier?

I have to turn off my WIFI (Frontier) to be able to access storm2k. My cell Network is TMOBILE. I can also access the site fine from work (not Frontier ISP.) What is even more interesting, is that if I go to a friend's house or a business that uses Frontier, I also cannot access storm2k. Has to be some kind a routing issue on the back end between Frontier and Storm2k - and nothing at the local router level. If I turn on a VPN, I can access the sites just fine. Tablet, Desktop, Laptop, Phone - Behavior is the same - cannot access storm2k if using Frontier as the ISP. If I bring any of those devices to a non-Frontier connection, works fine, so not a cache issue.

I am in Dallas and also am unable to access this site from home (Frontier), but have no problem at work (ATT).

For weeks I just assumed that you guys were shutting the site down after hours or having site stability problems in the evenings.

It happened to me at home, someone recommended a VPN and it worked. It seems particular to S2K and I suspect it is mostly because of the age of the system. I see color codes using RGB in binary hexidecimal and brackets with letters for italics and bold and the such. I remember that from early 2000s

[Hurrilurker]

Finally, things are starting to get interesting, right on schedule.

[GCANE]

Watching EURO. Has a wave developing just east of the islands, running through the Carib and shooting the Yucatan Channel into the GOM.
Surface low in about 200 hours. Watching further runs if consistent and if other models pick up on it.

[TomballEd]

All kinds of models showing development all over. I'm waiting to see when a trend on a particular system at a particular time becomes obvious. Picking out Bootheville or Melbourne or whatever city at the end of a 15 day model doesn't seem productive.

Not as interested in the mandarin area with its own thread as the one behind it. Looks good now but it isn't over water quite yet.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are definitely perking up in the medium to LR. Mid August could be an active time around here.