WPAC: 15W - Tropical Depression

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 250804 1200 24.0N 162.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 050030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050030Z-050600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041352ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZAUG2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING AND REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 161.9E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 041500) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 04AUG25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (BAILU) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 689 NM EAST OF MISAWA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.8N
159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) OF 28-29C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK AND MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 158.4E TO 35.0N 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.7N 158.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.2N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625
NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING SHEERED
LIGHTLY FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 051051Z ASCAT-
C PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS),
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-
29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK, WITH THE GFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREEING WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061500Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051452ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 28.4N 157.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 157.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 30.2N 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 32.5N 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.8N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 37.3N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 39.7N 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 157.4E.
06AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
318 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (BAILU) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051500).//
NNNN