Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[chris_fit]

12z OP GFS is way west and south of most of 12z GFS ENS

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS: I count ~60% of the 30 members with a TC then from this at hour 204. With regard to the CONUS, there is a mix of more northern safe recurvers that are tending to be stronger (though possibly threatening Bermuda) and further south mainly then not as strong potential threats. This may be a good representation of the most likely scenarios as is often the case with ensembles.

[Cpv17]

It’s not a rare track for August….

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Still no mention on the TWO which is a little surprising. GFS is likely too aggressive in the short term but there's clear support from elsewhere of something developing.

[Nimbus]

Freeport, TX landfall
https://i.imgur.com/g5vLMVk.png

How common is it for a storm to form south of the CV islands and just off the coast Africa and making it all the way west into the Gulf for a landfall in Mexico or Texas?

The GFS has been trending further west every run with the landfalls since yesterday.

That might not be due to increasing confidence of a stronger ridge to the north but if The 00Z Euro echoes the westward trend then maybe the models are starting to get a handle on the wind patterns. At least everyone from Texas to New England has been targetted by one of the early runs.

The jet stream is a little more zonal than usual transporting upper air systems west to east through Canada and that can allow ridging further south to build west.

[TomballEd]

Most of the GFS ensemble members at hour 240 are N of the op track. Time to check the #TXwx hashtag on Twitter and laugh at people posting 13 day GFS runs to be hyping.

I do think how much 96L develops is huge, it would leave a weakness N of future lemon if it does develop.

Edit- Good news. Not one single Lake Jackson or Freeport scare tweet.

[StormWeather]

No lemon at 2pm, we will see if they do put a lemonade out at 8.

[Jxdama]

12z euro aifs recurves safely away from the U.S., but a close call for the carolinas

[LarryWx]

Freeport, TX landfall
https://i.imgur.com/g5vLMVk.png

How common is it for a storm to form south of the CV islands and just off the coast Africa and making it all the way west into the Gulf for a landfall in Mexico or Texas?

The key is that this is highly unlikely to actually become a TC anywhere near that soon per the models. Thus, with it likely becoming a TC much further west as of now, that would mean more tracks that have made it that far west.

[Cachondo23]

Watching the GFS run come in. Significantly stronger in the near-short term. Anxiously awaiting to see how much it blows once it gets west. One benefit of a stronger storm earlier is that it will naturally get tugged more north via beta drift. Ridging still looks strong, so it's going to get west - question is how far and will there be an escape route? It is already at 20N at the last frame I can see, so generally it will be difficult to get all the way to the CONUS without really anomalously strong ridging. Track almost looks similar to Irma, except Irma famously had insanely strong high pressure build in to its north that actually shoved the storm SW, losing about 2.5deg of latitude in the process.

Very true on Irma-like track but this one from CV to Texas up and down, interesting…

[Beef Stew]

If something like the 12z GFS were to verify, we’d be looking at a potential top-5 storm in terms of ACE production.

[Pelicane]

Going off the GFS ensembles it seems like the faster it moves the further west it gets, and a stronger system might go a bit faster if the operational is anything to go by.

West Atlantic ridging in the 10 day timeframe seems stout, but that's subject to change. It'd be unusual for a storm to form that quickly off Africa and head all the way west like that.

Hoping this stays away from the Gulf, or better yet out to sea. It's been a wet summer on the gulf coast so we don't need any tropical rain.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro landfalls in E NC/Outer Banks at hour 324 (late on Aug 21st with it then in the 950s of mbs or likely near cat 3 status. All of this is very much just fwiw since it’s just an operational run out in fantasyland.

[chris_fit]

Here's the 12z Euro AI Loop

[chris_fit]

Here's the 12z ICON

[chris_fit]

And here's the 12Z Canadian. Seems like all models really start to crank the engine when it gets north of the Caribbean.

[LAF92]

I know it’s only one model run but it’s funny how the east bias GFS has a western solution and the west bias Euro has an eastern solution

[chris_fit]

Might as well post the 12Z EURO too.... Will be an eventful week or two it looks like.

[cycloneye]

The train. choo-choo.

 https://x.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1953860739157860382

[Nimbus]

Might as well post the 12Z EURO too.... Will be an eventful week or two it looks like.

https://i.imgur.com/3JX3yFU.gif

12z Euro further west, terrible flooding and surf erosion from Cape Hatteras north ends up in the gulf of Maine as a 963 mb hurricane, moving fast enough that it doesn't lose strength which is the worst case scenario for coastal New England.

But this isn't an active storm topic so other than the strengthening ridge models trend it doesn't mean much.