Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[convergencezone2]

The train. choo-choo.

 https://x.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1953860739157860382

yep the trains have left the station for sure! 7 pages regarding a wave that hasn't even moved off the coast yet shows our thirst for the dopamine hits of development.

disclaimer: as thirsty as we are for activity, keep in mind, it reflects no desire to see death and destruction, because the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do. It's more about the excitement of watching storms come together.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro ensemble: many potential scenarios regarding the CONUS as would be expected this far out with many well offshore the E coast, some threatening the E coast, and 4 in/near the Gulf

[ScottNAtlanta]

The GFS has a Rita like track

[Nederlander]

12z GFS woke up and chose violence

[Stormlover70]

https://i.ibb.co/dwNk9v2W/IMG-0033.png

12z GFS woke up and chose violence

full run?

[Fancy1002]

The train. choo-choo.

 https://x.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1953860739157860382

yep the trains have left the station for sure! 7 pages regarding a wave that hasn't even moved off the coast yet shows our thirst for the dopamine hits of development.

disclaimer: as thirsty as we are for activity, keep in mind, it reflects no desire to see death and destruction, because the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do. It's more about the excitement of watching storms come together.

I try to explain that to people, but they still think I’m crazy for getting excited over hurricanes.

[Jr0d]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1403241519884013638/Screenshot_2025-08-08_000015.png?ex=6896d601&is=68958481&hm=fb5d2262c7eb42c9b8f8f704cb5c274ef951778b3585c360662b8756f793073a&

If I had a $100 bill every time the long range GFS destroyed South Florida over the years I would be rich.

The GFS is living up to the Give Florida a Storm acronym.

Usually if we are in the bullseye in the early model runs, it won't hit. Irma was a rare exception to this rule of thumb.

[cycloneye]

The train. choo-choo.

 https://x.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1953860739157860382

yep the trains have left the station for sure! 7 pages regarding a wave that hasn't even moved off the coast yet shows our thirst for the dopamine hits of development.

disclaimer: as thirsty as we are for activity, keep in mind, it reflects no desire to see death and destruction, because the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do. It's more about the excitement of watching storms come together.

I knew this wave would create plenty of discussions and that is why decided to make this thread separated from the main models discussion one.

[chris_fit]

https://i.ibb.co/dwNk9v2W/IMG-0033.png

12z GFS woke up and chose violence

full run?

[chris_fit]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1403241519884013638/Screenshot_2025-08-08_000015.png?ex=6896d601&is=68958481&hm=fb5d2262c7eb42c9b8f8f704cb5c274ef951778b3585c360662b8756f793073a&

If I had a $100 bill every time the long range GFS destroyed South Florida over the years I would be rich.

The GFS is living up to the Give Florida a Storm acronym.

Usually if we are in the bullseye in the early model runs, it won't hit. Irma was a rare exception to this rule of thumb.

GFS was pretty far out to sea when Irma was still in the E Atlantic (9+ days out) - To be fair, so was the Euro. Really started narrowing in only 5-6 days out.

[Stormlover70]

https://i.ibb.co/dwNk9v2W/IMG-0033.png

12z GFS woke up and chose violence

full run?

https://i.imgur.com/0YAIMZY.gif

threading the. Needle between Cuba and Florida.

[cycloneye]

Irma's invest / TC thread had 622 pages and if all goes as both GFS and Euro have, the invest TC thread would get hundreds of pages. Let's see how things evolve in realtime.

[SouthFLTropics]

full run?

https://i.imgur.com/0YAIMZY.gif

threading the. Needle between Cuba and Florida.

Key West would get rocked on that run. Big impacts to Cuba and Florida. Looks like Georges 1998 through the Keys and then Rita all the way to Texas.

[chris_fit]

Irma's invest / TC thread had 622 pages and if all goes as both GFS and Euro have, the invest TC thread would get hundreds of pages. Let's see how things evolve in realtime.

Thanks for that - How I recall staying up late refreshing the pages to see the latest model runs. Was very nostalgic to go through that thread again.... In case you want to waste your time too: https://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.ph ... 71df4546ac

[BobHarlem]

12z euro ensembles, a bit of a west shift from 0z.

[Jr0d]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1403241519884013638/Screenshot_2025-08-08_000015.png?ex=6896d601&is=68958481&hm=fb5d2262c7eb42c9b8f8f704cb5c274ef951778b3585c360662b8756f793073a&

If I had a $100 bill every time the long range GFS destroyed South Florida over the years I would be rich.

The GFS is living up to the Give Florida a Storm acronym.

Usually if we are in the bullseye in the early model runs, it won't hit. Irma was a rare exception to this rule of thumb.

GFS was pretty far out to sea when Irma was still in the E Atlantic (9+ days out) - To be fair, so was the Euro. Really started narrowing in only 5-6 days out.

I might be mistaken then. Maybe I just remember getting rocked by her and my memory before impact is fuzzy.

I will have to look at old threads and hopefully remember which storm the GFS nailed a Florida hit 10 days out.

[Blown Away]

The GFS is living up to the Give Florida a Storm acronym.

Usually if we are in the bullseye in the early model runs, it won't hit. Irma was a rare exception to this rule of thumb.

GFS was pretty far out to sea when Irma was still in the E Atlantic (9+ days out) - To be fair, so was the Euro. Really started narrowing in only 5-6 days out.

I might be mistaken then. Maybe I just remember getting rocked by her and my memory before impact is fuzzy.

I will have to look at old threads and hopefully remember which storm the GFS nailed a Florida hit 10 days out.

Yeah, that 12z run with MH due W over the Keys, no bueno!

[JKG43]

The GFS has a Rita like track

And I just told a Rita story yesterday.

[Pelicane]

18z GFS seems too aggressive. It thinks it'll close a LLC within 24 hours.

[Ian2401]

18z GFS good bit north compared to 12z, but again it is probably organizing the storm way too quickly (within 24-36hrs!) especially considering how much SAL is just off the east coast of Africa. Also looks like meandering energy from 96L is a little more pronounced which matches its current satellite presentation and thus the ridge isn't able to build as much. Going to be hard to get as far west as 12z but we will see. Complex setup with a lot riding on how fast this storm can develop and how 96L evolves through the next few days.