Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[TomballEd]

Ensembles are the way to go at this point and a hit or near miss of ECUSA seems the way to go. More of ensembles than not miss the NE Caribbean.

Be interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow. I would not be surprised if it fizzles a bit then starts flaring up past 40W

[TampaWxLurker]

Ridge doesn't appear as strong on 18z GFS. 96L not as weak, either, maybe trying to make an escape hatch for this system. We'll see what the rest of the run does.

One thing that does stand out consistently between the last two runs of the GFS is just how quick out of the gate it wants to develop it and push off the coast of Africa.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles are the way to go at this point and a hit or near miss of ECUSA seems the way to go. More of ensembles than not miss the NE Caribbean.

Be interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow. I would not be surprised if it fizzles a bit then starts flaring up past 40W

https://i.imgur.com/336rNRU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ytuK3eW.png

Meh, I wouldn’t even really go with ensembles yet. I still think it’s too early. Ensembles are still flip flopping around by hundreds of miles from run to run.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The GFS has a Rita like track

And I just told a Rita story yesterday.

Your story must have conjured up that model run

[chris_fit]

18z GFS looking to de-escalate after that 12z run. It's much much more north and east and likely curves out to sea.

[TampaWxLurker]

It started a turn north but appears to be stalling out about 240 hours out.

[hurricane2025]

No model is good till u have a center, ensembles also, you will get a head ache if you model hug long long ways out

[Stratton23]

Im looking for a trend closer to the US over the next few days, the PNA goes strongly negative which favors strong ridging over the SE US, I dont see any real big trough coming down for a clean escape out to sea, that - PNA should prevent at least a safe recurve out to sea, though can’t completely rule that out, it just seems unlikely given the strong - PNA

[Woofde]

18z GFS good bit north compared to 12z, but again it is probably organizing the storm way too quickly (within 24-36hrs!) especially considering how much SAL is just off the east coast of Africa. Also looks like meandering energy from 96L is a little more pronounced which matches its current satellite presentation and thus the ridge isn't able to build as much. Going to be hard to get as far west as 12z but we will see. Complex setup with a lot riding on how fast this storm can develop and how 96L evolves through the next few days.

Agreed, there is quite a bit out there. Not to mention the GFS has a tendency to overestimate how fast these large waves will develop. The run has it approaching Hurricane intensity around 3 days out; not impossible, but unlikely IMO.

[BobHarlem]

GFS was sure a full swing of the windshield wipers today. 18z recurves, seems to get pretty intense extratropical for Newfoundland though. Cant't say no landfall this run as it goes over Newfoundland (And technically the cabo verde). But probably the other extreme edge from a Texas landfall. Wouldn't be shocked for it to head the other direction next run.

[BobHarlem]

It's now a lemon 20%

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Cachondo23]

It's now a lemon 20%

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

About 45 mins before the hour, is it usually that early in the TWO?
Also, very NE of where it can develop. A bit early to determined that?

[BobHarlem]

It's now a lemon 20%

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

About 45 mins before the hour, is it usually that early in the TWO?
Also, very NE of where it can develop. A bit early to determined that?

It's semi random as far as I can tell, also related to how confident they are. If it's REALLY late they are making changes.

The 18z Euro AI decided to do what the 12z GFS did and run it through the Florida straits after the 12z run recurved it, the ai this time makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana. 10 day (240 hour) spot for the Euro and 12z is in the Eastern Bahamas, 18z GFS put it north. 5,7 and 10 day checkpoints are good to follow the trends. 18z GEFS Ensemble mean shifted sw.

[Stratton23]

If it takes longer to develop ( models are developing too quickly, too much dry air to its north at the present time) its likely to miss the weakness left behind by 96L, so that may not necessarily be a good thing if this takes longer to develop

[tolakram]

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Cpv17]

If it takes longer to develop ( models are developing too quickly, too much dry air to its north at the present time) its likely to miss the weakness left behind by 96L, so that may not necessarily be a good thing if this takes longer to develop

Good thing is they mention a WNW movement and not due W. If it stays N of the islands, it’ll have a harder time getting into the Gulf.

[Category5Kaiju]

1933's Hurricane 8



1996's Edouard



Here are some close analogs to the most recent GFS runs.

[IcyTundra]

If it takes longer to develop ( models are developing too quickly, too much dry air to its north at the present time) its likely to miss the weakness left behind by 96L, so that may not necessarily be a good thing if this takes longer to develop

Good thing is they mention a WNW movement and not due W. If it stays N of the islands, it’ll have a harder time getting into the Gulf.

It looks like this is going to stay north of the Caribbean unless there is a major change. It looks like the only path into the Gulf is going to be through the Florida Straits or a South Florida landfall if the ridge to the north is strong like it was on the 12Z GFS or the 18Z AI Euro it is possible. It is pretty hard to have a strong ridge like that extending that far west with no weakness so I think it is pretty unlikely.

[Nimbus]

If it takes longer to develop ( models are developing too quickly, too much dry air to its north at the present time) its likely to miss the weakness left behind by 96L, so that may not necessarily be a good thing if this takes longer to develop

So far the recent waves coming off Africa have been taking their time organizing, so if this one spins up early it would be kind of anomalous. 96l is about to get beamed up by the ULL and that trough won't be there long enough to pick up a wave without a closed circulation.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS