Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[Fancy1002]

Both the midnight euro AI and GFS hate North Carolina.

[ElectricStorm]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: MH passes 150 miles E of NC 8/21 and then hits Cape Cod/E ME 8/22-3 as weakening H.

[AtlanticWind]

Seems likely that our 1st Cape Verde hurricane of the year just rolled off Africa.

[Cachondo23]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1311237382682447893/1403595840945393725/Screenshot_2025-08-08_232826.png?ex=68981ffe&is=6896ce7e&hm=b54b66a7551be41696a19478856a43343bfa84a7161b85407e1fa5c71773c00b&

Now sure how this thing avoids land this run.

Idk if anybody has noticed, but these runs have been hinting at a slight WSW dip before the islands. A scaled down version of the motion of an "I" storm in 2017.

Yeah, way too close to NE Caribbean Islands. Especially BVI, on that run about 20-30 miles from Anegada.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z GFS running... immediately develops TS Erin off the coast of Africa as early as Monday.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Here comes would-be Erin. GFS makes it into a tropical storm as early as Monday. I do not think development will be that quick due to the size of the wave and hostile environment, but we will see.

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS recurves it just west of Bermuda, no landfall likely this run (unless it it goes to canada at the end of the run.. edit: it does not). Operational is in the middle of the ensembles this time.

It's very similar to yesterday's 18z.

Last 5 runs

0z yesterday: South Florida
6z yesterday: obx brush
12z: Freeport Tx
18z: Recurve with no landfall no landfall (similar to today's 6z)
0z: North Carolina
6z: Recurve with no landfall

A lot of the ensembles diverge around the 10 day mark east of the Bahamas.

[otowntiger]

On the latest GFS looks to recurve OTS well east of CONUS.

[cycloneye]

The best case scenario from the 06z GFS as it avoids every land areas including Bermuda. Here is the loop.

[GCANE]

This is OTS

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged offshore the west coast of
Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
the middle to latter portion of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Sunday and
Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent

[Nimbus]

06z GFS running... immediately develops TS Erin off the coast of Africa as early as Monday.

NHC only giving this a 30% chance of having a closed circulation by the 16th so 00z GFS run probably tracking too far north. A weak and west trend for even a day beyond the 13th would scrap this run. Think bowling, If you were off by a bowling lane dot at seven feet past the foul line, it could mean a Cuban landfall at the pins. This ridge may build west all the way to Colorado for all we know now.

[WeatherBoy2000]

06z GFS running... immediately develops TS Erin off the coast of Africa as early as Monday.

NHC only giving this a 30% chance of having a closed circulation by the 16th so 00z GFS run probably tracking too far north. A weak and west trend for even a day beyond the 13th would scrap this run. Think bowling, If you were off by a bowling lane dot at seven feet past the foul line, it could mean a Cuban landfall at the pins. This ridge may build west all the way to Colorado for all we know now.

Yeah the gfs is likely being too aggressive in the short term, however, the nhc is showing the possibility of this developing pretty far east. Chances are up to 40% and the hatch extends as far as 28W, not that far from the CV islands.

[chris_fit]

06z Euro AI trending more N again through 216hr

[Jxdama]

good trends this morning for the east coast, hopefully it continues....

[BobHarlem]

6z GEFS mean stays just east of Carolina (west of operational), but it is much closer to the Northeast. One suble thing being picked up on is a bend back to the west closer to the northeast. I wouldn't be too comfortable beyond 10 days yet-- the 10 day mark (east of Bahamas) is where things start to split. Spread is still mid gulf to Bermuda.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/UWu1qGM.gif

No posts dismissing it as the "happy hour run" when it doesn't show a high-impact outcome...

Not sure I understand. No model at this range should even be discussed other than a general direction for the next 5 or so days.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro, similar route, weaker until late in the run.

[wxman57]

One thing I'm noting is the relatively weak Bermuda high. That should allow any developing storm to turn northward prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean. I would not rule out any threat to the NE Caribbean or East U.S. Coast just yet, though. Reaching the Gulf would seem unlikely.