ATL: ERIN - Models

[Hurricane2022]

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/hHOiY2Z.png

Immediately out the gate most of the early models are calling for at least a Cat 3. Could continue to uptrend, could downtrend later on. We will see.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon is ne of the 0z (0z was 20.6N, 12z is 25.3N and ends at 26N). It also has another system to the east.

[StormWeather]

12z Icon is ne of the 0z (0z was 20.6N, 12z is 25.3N and ends at 26N). It also has another system to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/iwbTRQc.png

This reminds me of Irma and Jose, tbh. After the talk over the past few days of comparing the early Irma thread model runs to the now 97L model runs to date.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The gfs has backed off on intensity in the short term, which is more realistic given the marginal ssts.

[CycloysisNegative]

12z GFS so far (90hrs), ~10mb weaker but slightly N of 6z.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS looks a good ways north of the last run, and it's only 96hrs in. Looks like OTS likely here.

[CycloysisNegative]

12z GFS still slightly N 120hrs out but ~20mb weaker.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK: still has a TS but delayed vs 0Z and not as far N moving WNW at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.5N 51.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 120 21.1N 53.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 132 22.3N 56.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.4N 59.6W 1009 30
0000UTC 16.08.2025 156 24.7N 62.1W 1008 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.0N 64.3W 1006 42

[CycloysisNegative]

12z 144hrs out ~15mb weaker but becoming more and more NNW of 6z. Bermuda high looks weaker as well.

[LarryWx]

12z 144hrs out ~15mb weaker but becoming more and more NNW of 6z. Bermuda high looks weaker as well.

Looks similar to 18Z

[LarryWx]

But 12Z CMC, like its recent runs, is significantly further S at 171 (just ENE of PR) with it again much weaker than other models at 1003 mb. It isn’t recurving as it is moving in underneath an extensive H5 ridge.

Edit: Edit: ends up near Andros I. moving NW toward FL.

[CycloysisNegative]

Bit of blocking to its N which was absent on the 6z run at 234hrs out. Might not fully miss land.

[BobHarlem]

Last frame of 12z Canadian, large left (SW) shift from 0z which was east of the Bahamas.

[TomballEd]

New GFS coming in looks like a fish or New England/Canada threat,

That said, folks at Space City Weather describe how useless deterministic models are at longer time frames and why ensemble modeling gives a more accurate picture.

https://spacecityweather.com/a-rather-typical-early-august-weekend-awaits-houston-while-we-take-a-detailed-look-at-the-tropics/

[lsuhurricane]

Canadian definitely keeping things interesting. Proximity to Greater Antilles seems to be an absolute benchmark.

[AutoPenalti]

https://x.com/weatherprof/status/195421 ... 17675?s=46


A lot of intensity models have this as a strong cat 1 by next week.

[TampaWxLurker]

12z GFS gets its fairly close to the Outer Banks before making a sharp turn to the NE before becoming extratropical South of Nova Scotia and giving maritime Canada a good whacking.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS no US landfall but does landfall in Newfoundland in Canada. It does get a good deal closer to North Carolina compared to 6z,

[chris_fit]

12z GFS ended up a lot closer to the east coast than I was expecting based on the storm's position around 100hrs. Will see many more windshield wipers in the coming days. There were many GFS and EURO runs showing recurve from FL or even OTS for Irma at even 7 and 8 days out.