ATL: ERIN - Models

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro AI. Charleston, SC (Also goes over some of the Bahamas, including Nassau) and brushes by Cape Canaveral

[AtlanticWind]

A threat to somewhere on the Atlantic coast according to these
model runs , but a long long way to go

[Fancy1002]

Man, that euro AI run is bad for so many different people.

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps, the hurricane models are now running for the first time for 97L Here is HAFS-A,HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON how they end.

[cycloneye]

TVCN track trend. A great tool to follow.

[CycloysisNegative]

TVCN track trend. A great tool to follow.

https://i.imgur.com/f6egsVg.png

https://i.imgur.com/LU1ig2t.png

https://i.imgur.com/GYC5yql.png

How do I interpret the track trend tool?

[Fancy1002]

TVCN track trend. A great tool to follow.

https://i.imgur.com/f6egsVg.png

https://i.imgur.com/LU1ig2t.png

https://i.imgur.com/GYC5yql.png

How do I interpret the track trend tool?

The charts come out every six hours, so around 1 o’clock or just wait for the ones tomorrow morning, come back and compare them to the previous ones and see what’s changed. After doing this a few times you’ll notice the trend.

[cycloneye]

TVCN track trend. A great tool to follow.

https://i.imgur.com/f6egsVg.png

https://i.imgur.com/LU1ig2t.png

https://i.imgur.com/GYC5yql.png

How do I interpret the track trend tool?

The red line is the latest run and the gray line was the past runs and you then see how is trending.

[Stratton23]

18z AIFS and EPS ensembles with a noticeable shift south, with some members now going through the leeward islands and into the Caribbean, its latitude will be determined on how quickly 96L exits the picture , but that shift south will be interesting to see if overnight runs continue the trend, a south trend could be significant down the road in regards to any US impacts

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1954372917342417086

[StormWeather]

18z AIFS and EPS ensembles with a noticeable shift south, with some members now going through the leeward islands and into the Caribbean, its latitude will be determined on how quickly 96L exits the picture , but that shift south will be interesting to see if overnight runs continue the trend, a south trend could be significant down the road in regards to any US impacts

I keep getting Irma vibes from this. Please don’t let it do such a thing.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS is much weaker in the short term.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS is much weaker in the short term.

And quite a bit farther south from the 18z run

[CycloysisNegative]

Significantly weaker ridge on the 0z GFS. This is going to swing wide right.

[CycloysisNegative]

Passes east of Bermuda. ~500mi shift east compared to 18z at the same lat.

[Category5Kaiju]

Unlike the 18z GFS run, there's a cutoff low that manages to pull 97L northward OTS, though in the process Bermuda gets nailed.

0z CMC is more north than 12z, although there doesn't seem to be a noteworthy trough in the picture, and whether this heads OTS or hits some part of the Atlantic Seaboard is inconclusive.

[hurricane2025]

Euro ai landfall Texas

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET for some reason doesn’t classify this as a TC. I’d like to see the WxBell or weather.us maps once they’re released to see why. From what I can tell on Pivotal, there still is a sfc low.

[Fancy1002]

both of the 00z Hafs models seem to be wsw of the 18z, and I mean a good bit west by at least four or 5 degrees. They are also both stronger.

I can’t see it, but I’m guessing in these models the ridge is stronger.

[Jxdama]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!