ATL: ERIN - Models

[ElectricStorm]

0z Hurricane models, all are still strengthening at the end of the run:
HWRF and HAFS-A both around Cat 2/mid to low 970s
HMON the weakest with a strengthening TS, takes longer to develop than the others
HAFS-B the strongest with 102kts/960mb at the end of the run

[AxaltaRacing24]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!

Although it’s the most likely scenario, it is too early to sound the all clear on a wave that just left Africa, just because it recurves 150+ hours out.

[eastcoastFL]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!

Famous last words...That's a story we've seen a million times over the years. Way too soon for an all clear.

[Nimbus]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!

Although it’s the most likely scenario, it is too early to sound the all clear on a wave that just left Africa, just because it recurves 150+ hours out.

150 hours out track prediction for hurricanes historically has been only 50/50 but the new AI may be improving to the point that the 00z run trend is statistically indicative. There could very well be a weakness east of the gulf ridging and Erin could be far enough north to feel it. The front riding east through Kansas may dig a little more or less in 10 days when it moves off the coast. The hurricane strength also may feed back into the upper air analysis by then etc.

[cycloneye]

At the 06z GFS run, it moves over Bermuda but is already long range at that point so changes will occur.

[Jxdama]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!

Famous last words...That's a story we've seen a million times over the years. Way too soon for an all clear.

maybe, but models only get better as we get closer in time. fwiw, the 6z euro aifs swipes the carolinas, but thats waaaay north of 0z which was in the gulf, trends continue

[cycloneye]

06z European is stronger than 00z.

[Hurricane2022]

HAFS-B 06z



HAFS-A 06z

[Hurricane2022]

HMON 06z


HWRF 06z

[TampaWxLurker]

12Z GFS has it start to make its turn north east of Bermuda.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon recurves it east of Bermuda. (shift right from just west at 0z)

[Hurricaneman]

Seems the 12zGFS is on the very eastern side of the ensemble envelope, don’t be surprised if we trend west in later runs

[NDG]

I will be watching for trends over the next few days.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1954571980516069725

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS safely east of Bermuda.

[Ian2401]

Wow that ridge is coming in weaker and weaker each run. Good trends for CONUS, it is hard to see how a CONUS impact could result from a setup like this but still time for things to change. At the end of the day climatology says it is quite hard to get a storm that forms this far east to make it all the way west - it's best chance is always to stay weak for as long as it can.

[BobHarlem]

12z Canadian also shifted right, but remains west of Bermuda. Not sure if the euro will join the weaker ridge party or not yet.

[Stratton23]

Im not buying the weaker ridge trend, especially on the GFS which has a huge issue with handling ridging , in addition 97L is currently tracking south of most model guidance including the hurricane models, I have a growing suspicion that this will be an irma or florence type situation

[NDG]

12z GFS weakens the heck out of the mid levels over Bermuda, EC & GEFS don't show such weakness over Bermuda.

[TomballEd]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!

Famous last words...That's a story we've seen a million times over the years. Way too soon for an all clear.

My unofficial and amateur forecast based on models and ensembles, the trend is the friend, this is 90% fish storm, and of the 10% uncertainty, 5% is for Bermuda or the Canadian Maritimes.

But this almost certainly will become the first hurricane of the season and probably the first major, and a Cat 4 storm, fish or not, will be fun to track. Long track ACE machine!

[NDG]

Definitely the operational GFS is on the far right of the GEFS ensembles which don't show such a weakness over Bermuda.