ATL: ERIN - Models

[Cpv17]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!

Famous last words...That's a story we've seen a million times over the years. Way too soon for an all clear.

My unofficial and amateur forecast based on models and ensembles, the trend is the friend, this is 90% fish storm, and of the 10% uncertainty, 5% is for Bermuda or the Canadian Maritimes.

But this almost certainly will become the first hurricane of the season and probably the first major, and a Cat 4 storm, fish or not, will be fun to track. Long track ACE machine!

https://i.imgur.com/SSeBWVq.png

Fish storms aren’t fun to track, but to each their own lol personally, I couldn’t care less about a fish storm.

[BobHarlem]

Charleston, SC area landfall on the 12z euro AI, shift left from the 6z, but close to what yesterday's 18z was. 12z euro also shifted left some (West of Bermuda), similar to the canadian.

[Ian2401]

Im not buying the weaker ridge trend, especially on the GFS which has a huge issue with handling ridging , in addition 97L is currently tracking south of most model guidance including the hurricane models, I have a growing suspicion that this will be an irma or florence type situation

97L is actually tracking north of guidance, and by quite a bit

[emeraldislenc]

I think it is way too soon to call this a fish storm. As a coastal N.C. resident I have seen too many so called fish storms either hit N.C. or come very very close!

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro is slightly left of the 0z, this plot shows a sw dip in the middle of the run that's interesting:


West of Bermuda here (0z was much closer to Bermuda)


No landfall, closest point to Nova Scotia here: (0z was nowhere close)


I'd avoid calling 97l a fish storm, especially with Cabo Verde and Bermuda both in play.

[Nimbus]

Im not buying the weaker ridge trend, especially on the GFS which has a huge issue with handling ridging , in addition 97L is currently tracking south of most model guidance including the hurricane models, I have a growing suspicion that this will be an irma or florence type situation

97L is actually tracking north of guidance, and by quite a bit

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/guidance/97L_tvcn_trend.png

The low level center (if there is one to be seen) is moving more west now revolving around the mid level circulation. Models may still swing the track back west again especially if this doesn't deepen quickly.

[crownweather]

 https://x.com/crownweather/status/1954599754639216936

[Cpv17]

I think it is way too soon to call this a fish storm. As a coastal N.C. resident I have seen too many so called fish storms either hit N.C. or come very very close!

When waves are first exiting Africa like 97L is right now, models tend to underestimate the strength of subtropical highs and want to send a lot of storms OTS, only to shift back left with time. Has happened quite a few times.

[BobHarlem]

I think it is way too soon to call this a fish storm. As a coastal N.C. resident I have seen too many so called fish storms either hit N.C. or come very very close!

Cabo Verde immediately eliminates Fish Storm as an option. Bermuda may also double void it even if it stays east of the US.

[CrazyC83]

Finally got the log in figured out again on my new computer.

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1954606356083757460

[TomballEd]

I think it is way too soon to call this a fish storm. As a coastal N.C. resident I have seen too many so called fish storms either hit N.C. or come very very close!

Cabo Verde immediately eliminates Fish Storm as an option. Bermuda may also double void it even if it stays east of the US.

Add Canada as a reasonable land target for future Erin. A 35 or 40 knot storm doesn't do real damage in the CVs, unless it triggers a slide on one of the volcanoes, Bermuda seems to have very well built homes, even strong hurricanes seem to do fairly limited damage. Canada would be the worst case (assuming ECUSA is in the clear, unofficially, I'm 90% confident). Canada seems rather vulnerable to their infrequent hurricanes (usually hurricanes well into post-tropical transition). See Hurricane Juan as an example.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think it is way too soon to call this a fish storm. As a coastal N.C. resident I have seen too many so called fish storms either hit N.C. or come very very close!

Cabo Verde immediately eliminates Fish Storm as an option. Bermuda may also double void it even if it stays east of the US.

Add Canada as a reasonable land target for future Erin. A 35 or 40 knot storm doesn't do real damage in the CVs, unless it triggers a slide on one of the volcanoes, Bermuda seems to have very well built homes, even strong hurricanes seem to do fairly limited damage. Canada would be the worst case (assuming ECUSA is in the clear, unofficially, I'm 90% confident). Canada seems rather vulnerable to their infrequent hurricanes (usually hurricanes well into post-tropical transition). See Hurricane Juan as an example.

I'm not sure I would use the term "infrequent" for Nova Scotia landfalls any longer. Over the last decade, NS, more so the eastern half, has been hit every couple of years. We call Eastern Nova Scotia (the capital, Halifax, to Sydney) the "New Florida" around these parts.

[cycloneye]

Woah, little shear most of the track.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1954612515532664972

[cycloneye]

TVCN trends more north at 18z.

[kevin]

I don't know about this one. If I had to make a bet I'd say OTS from the US (but still a danger to Bermuda). But the 1st storm that made me lurk on storm2k was Irma and I distinctly remember models trending OTS. Since 2017 any modelled WSW dip in an MDR storm always gives me flashbacks. Personally, I'll wait until the storm has solidified as a TS before increasing my confidence towards any solution.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro ensemble tracks. Many of these have a sw dip in the middle. Longer range means Bermuda should keep the eyeballs on it. Only 5 tracks threaten florida.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely agree we'll have to keep a close eye on that SW bend. Most impactful CV hurricanes have that feature.

[BobHarlem]

last frame of the 18z icon for midday Friday. Icon doesn't develop it until this frame (same for the longer run of 12z)

Slightly left/south of 12z and 0z.
~23.0N here vs 24.5N at 12z

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1954656005926875410