ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[TampaWxLurker]

18x Best Track: Is the 15.7N latitud is too high in terms of intensifying down the road?

AL, 97, 2025081018, , BEST, 0, 157N, 215W, 30, 1006, LO

https://i.imgur.com/YluClWx.png

That's some serious latitude for a system so far east. I know it's going to run into the ridge sooner rather than later, but here's to hoping it gets as absolutely far north as it can now before starting its trek west.

[Cachondo23]

Heavy rain fall in CV islands, specially in Boa Vista.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1954644981127496079

[ScottNAtlanta]

Nice blowup over the center

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1954663826256797891

[storm_in_a_teacup]

This gonna be our first hurricane this year?

[StormWeather]

This gonna be our first hurricane this year?

It’s seeming very likely to be.

[cycloneye]

Great video about Bermuda in the crosshairs from Fabian. Will it happen again with future Erin?

 https://x.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1954681666389385719

[eastcoastFL]

Quite persistent convection

[eastcoastFL]

This gonna be our first hurricane this year?

It seems so.

[StormWeather]

Quite persistent convection

https://weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES19_1km_ir_202508102305_12.25_20.75_-29.00_-15.00_ir1_ltngge_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

This is likely a TC now or close to it. I expect TD Five or TS Erin at 11pm.

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty good lightening going on right now also. Following the lightening it seems to be continuing wnw.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located over
the eastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. Only a small
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression as the low continues moving across the Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
tonight and Monday across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC might normally have named it by now, but they're Erin on the side of caution.

[Jr0d]

It certainly has that mean look with intense convection we often see in the genesis stage of storms that become monsters.

It may take a WSW dive soon and it seems like storms that take that motion also often become monsters, it usually happens much further west. My guess as an amateur is when a storm takes that wsw or even sw dive, it is entering the eastern part of a high pressure ridge...and tropical systems thrive under those ridges.

[StormWeather]

NHC might normally have named it by now, but they're Erin on the side of caution.

Finally someone seeing the meme-worthiness of the name.

Though the name won’t be memeable here soon it seems.

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/cjfieldswx/status/1954691003434111002

[BobHarlem]

Curious why they didn't at least do PTC on this, it's basically almost over the Cabo Verde now.

[cycloneye]

Good thread to read.

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1954701708954612169



 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1954701713405055480



 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1954701718102429939

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track now moving WNW.

AL, 97, 2025081100, , BEST, 0, 165N, 234W, 30, 1006, LO