ATL: ERIN - Models

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/26mFnqpp/12z-Models.jpg [/url]
12z... Still likely recurve, but the cluster keeps moving farther S and W...

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4dL7nnsQ/12z-Location.jpg [/url]
12z Location... W turn has begun...

Seems like it’s getting closer and closer to the islands.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I don't like looking at models of where it's gonna hit the US this far out. It just gives me anxiety that may or may not be justified in the end. I dunno how you guys enjoy it lol

[mitchell]

For 10 days out, the 0z Euro and 0z GFS are in an uncanny agreement on track and intensity. Both models have it passing just west of Bermuda while moving in a northward direction on August 19th - 20th. Both models have the center within a hundred miles of one another and within 5 mb intensity around 950.

[DunedinDave]

Still very far out. If I had $100 to wager, I’d put $70 on that it curves out to sea, $20, that it comes close enough to the US to clip Hatteras or the Cape Cod region, and $10 that it stays south and somehow rams into Florida and/or hits the Gulf.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon is right (NE) of the 0z. Very similar position to the 6z GFS at the same timeframe (although a bit slower) and almost on top of the same time for the 0z Euro. (Storm is just weaker on the icon) Remarkable agreement on the models today so far. Bermuda should be watching this very closely.

[Stormlover70]

Still very far out. If I had $100 to wager, I’d put $70 on that it curves out to sea, $20, that it comes close enough to the US to clip Hatteras or the Cape Cod region, and $10 that it stays south and somehow rams into Florida and/or hits the Gulf.

look at Irmas early runs and get back to me.

[AutoPenalti]

I get people want to bring back Irma when it comes to the track after for days 5-10 but this was almost 8 years ago, models have substantially improved since then. We have basically all models in agreement so far, there will be adjustments, but so far it hasn't been drastic. Euro AI has been pretty poor with track.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1954912250793472022

[Ian2401]

The only real similarity to Irma with Erin is how far east it has formed. I think it is getting brought up because some guidance indicates a subtle SW dip in track, but Irma's SW jog was far more dramatic - losing about 2.5deg of latitude in the process which helped it get farther west. The synoptic pattern for Erin is not really comparable, as Irma had far stronger ridging helping it resist poleward movement via beta drift and not providing any escape via approaching troughs until it reached FL. Not to mention that storm was being forecast with a much older and less skillful suite of model guidance, which can explain some of the larger swings in track during Irma.

Climatology is powerful, but comparing one storm to another is not all that useful and sometimes misleading.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has been delayed

[Category5Kaiju]

The only real similarity to Irma with Erin is how far east it has formed. I think it is getting brought up because some guidance indicates a subtle SW dip in track, but Irma's SW jog was far more dramatic - losing about 2.5deg of latitude in the process which helped it get farther west. The synoptic pattern for Erin is not really comparable, as Irma had far stronger ridging helping it resist poleward movement via beta drift and not providing any escape via approaching troughs until it reached FL. Not to mention that storm was being forecast with a much older and less skillful suite of model guidance, which can explain some of the larger swings in track during Irma.

Climatology is powerful, but comparing one storm to another is not all that useful and sometimes misleading.

There is another big storm that I feel gets quite overshadowed by Irma in terms of WSW dips in the MDR, and that is Luis from 1995. Ended up impacting Barbuda before recurving northward.

I do agree that Irma is not a great comparison with Erin due to the different background forcing patterns, but what I will say is at least in terms of track, it looks like Erin's future track might resemble something like Fabian, Bill, or Earl. Hopefully not like Fabian, because that was a disaster for Bermuda.

[StormWeather]

12z GFS has been delayed

https://i.imgur.com/UEFpPM2.jpeg

Well that’s a first…

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS has been delayed

https://i.imgur.com/UEFpPM2.jpeg

Well that’s a first…

Means no hurricane models either. Icon/Canadian will be it until the euro

[cycloneye]

12z GFS running now.

[BobHarlem]

12z Canadian is pretty left/south of 0z and every other run since 0z sat, very close to the islands here.

[TampaWxLurker]

GFS doesn't seem to be on board the NHC's forecast in terms of quick strengthening. Through 60 hours the 12z has Erin at only 994mb, while at 60 hours the NHC thinks it would be a Cat 1 hurricane.

Edit: Through 72 hours 12z has it at 985mb, vs NHC 90mph strong Cat 1.

[StormWeather]

12z GFS has been delayed

https://i.imgur.com/UEFpPM2.jpeg

What’s the site in the background behind this? Just curious.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: further W than the 0Z’s recurve at 63.3W with a threat to Bermuda as it ends the run moving NNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.8N 35.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 24 17.8N 35.1W 1008 30
0000UTC 13.08.2025 36 17.3N 39.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.1N 42.2W 1006 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 60 17.8N 44.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.08.2025 72 19.4N 48.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 15.08.2025 84 20.8N 51.7W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.08.2025 96 21.4N 55.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 16.08.2025 108 22.0N 57.9W 1006 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 120 22.3N 60.2W 1003 43
0000UTC 17.08.2025 132 23.4N 62.8W 1002 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 144 25.0N 64.3W 1001 47
0000UTC 18.08.2025 156 26.0N 65.4W 999 45
1200UTC 18.08.2025 168 27.5N 66.0W 998 50

[TampaWxLurker]

Last few frames of the GFS starts to blow it up. From 975mb to 964mb in 18 hours. Quite a bit stronger than in past GFS runs, too.

It also isn't turning it yet. In past runs the turn had started already. Still traveling generally WNW at 120 hours, almost to 60W.

[StormWeather]

Last few frames of the GFS starts to blow it up. From 975mb to 964mb in 18 hours. Quite a bit stronger than in past GFS runs, too.

To me, the position of Erin at 120 hours in the current 12Z GFS run is slightly more SE than in the 06Z run at 120 hours.