ATL: ERIN - Models

[BobHarlem]

0z earlies shifted a bit to the left and flattened out slightly at the end.

[ronjon]

It's concerning that the models today have been further south and west. If the storm follows HAF A or B track in 5 days it'll be significantly south of 20N-60W and would place it in Herbert Box 1. This would significantly increase the risk of a US strike based on historical data.

[Cpv17]

18z Euro ensembles look quite interesting.

[emeraldislenc]

Please explain why it looks interesting?

[OuterBanker]

Just as I was feeling as Erin was safely out to sea along comes the 18z runs.
Even the GFS has shifted much further west (still OTS but getting uncomfortably close to seus).
Euro AI is outrageous with a potential double strike (jury still out on this model).

I guess I will still have to watch Erin.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1955041151313940595



This is concerning, Eric is saying that Models have been horrible with the CONUS Ridges with forecasts busting all summer, particularly with the ridges not retrograding like they were forecasted to.

[BobHarlem]

New Experimental HAFS V2.1.1B (out to 102 hours) Notable how strong the ridging is here.



Link for these is https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro looks like a close call with the greater Antilles. Maintains the south west shift of the 18z model suite.

[Cpv17]

Please explain why it looks interesting?

They continue the left trend.

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon at last 18z frame time, about 1.5 degrees south of 18z at 120 hours.

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon last frame MUCH stronger (cat 4 pushing cat 5) and west of 12z. 73w vs 65.2w at 12z

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the latest model data, the Carolinas will have to watch this as much as Bermuda and Atlantic Canada and can’t discount Long Island/New England and most definitely first the Northeast lesser Antilles and Bahamas

[NDG]

Not surprising seeing the models trend south and west after wanting to erode ridging over or just south of Bermuda too soon like they have been erroneously doing the last few days.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1955111800594203024

[Beef Stew]

I certainly can’t recall the last time I saw the icon bring a storm down to the 920’s from a ~1000 mb initialization.

I still think the more noteworthy piece here though is another SW shift. I expect that the windshield wipers are still in full effect this far out and the next suite could very well shift back to the east, but if nothing else the latest trends highlight that no one in the Antilles nor US East Coast should be feeling fully comfortable yet.

[Pelicane]

0z GFS looks very similar to 18z, if anything it's a bit slower and east.

[StPeteMike]

0z GFS early runs, stronger ridge and a tad weaker by Friday 12z from 24 hours ago. Trough that supposed to come off CONUS by Saturday looks to be too horizontal to have an impact on the ridging. I’ll be refreshing to see what the next 72 hours on it will look like.

[LarryWx]

I certainly can’t recall the last time I saw the icon bring a storm down to the 920’s from a ~1000 mb initialization.

I still think the more noteworthy piece here though is another SW shift. I expect that the windshield wipers are still in full effect this far out and the next suite could very well shift back to the east, but if nothing else the latest trends highlight that no one in the Antilles nor US East Coast should be feeling fully comfortable yet.

The 0Z 168 Icon is not only well SW of the 12Z 180, but it’s also still moving NW by WNW and isn’t headed N into a trough like it was on 12Z.

[LarryWx]

OTOH:
0Z 8/12 UKMET: similar to 12Z with it recurving at 66.5W and threatening Bermuda:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 31.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 0 17.8N 31.2W 1010 29
1200UTC 12.08.2025 12 17.4N 35.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 13.08.2025 24 17.2N 39.3W 1008 30
1200UTC 13.08.2025 36 17.0N 42.6W 1007 29
0000UTC 14.08.2025 48 17.3N 45.3W 1008 29
1200UTC 14.08.2025 60 18.3N 49.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 72 19.2N 52.1W 1008 28
1200UTC 15.08.2025 84 20.3N 55.5W 1008 33
0000UTC 16.08.2025 96 21.0N 58.8W 1007 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 108 21.8N 61.0W 1004 43
0000UTC 17.08.2025 120 22.4N 63.8W 1002 43
1200UTC 17.08.2025 132 24.2N 65.6W 1000 45
0000UTC 18.08.2025 144 26.6N 66.5W 998 42
1200UTC 18.08.2025 156 28.6N 66.5W 995 43
0000UTC 19.08.2025 168 30.8N 65.6W 992 47

[Pelicane]

Seems like a bit of a shift back east. Interesting to see if the HAFS models stick to what they were showing earlier.