Texas Summer 2025
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.
Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
cstrunk wrote:Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.
Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.
Hoping nothing gets into the Gulf. It seems common for a gulf storm to crash, curve east, and pull the death ridge right over Texas. No need for that now.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:cstrunk wrote:Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.
Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.
Hoping nothing gets into the Gulf. It seems common for a gulf storm to crash, curve east, and pull the death ridge right over Texas. No need for that now.
Yeah I will pass. We're so close to being past the worst of summer

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Re: Texas Summer 2025
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:cstrunk wrote:Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.
Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.
Hoping nothing gets into the Gulf. It seems common for a gulf storm to crash, curve east, and pull the death ridge right over Texas. No need for that now.
Entering a more favored climatology time period for the western Gulf as we move deeper into August.
Been monitoring tropics since late July as the MJO forecast was hinting at a more active period as we moved into August.
Ensembles definitely saying watch out in the 10-15 but as usual this far out, it's a wait and see situation but at the very minimum we should see a bit more activity.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
The 0z GFS was uh quite disturbing
fortunately it's a long way out
That would be the last thing Texas needs right now

That would be the last thing Texas needs right now
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
Ntxw wrote:Pacific SSTA has increased over the summer season off the west coast. Ridging there has been favored and played a role in preventing a scorching summer. It will set shop again in the medium term. Will this continue into the Fall and Winter? Predominantly has connections to a -EPO with such a set up.
I think it will play a big role in the coming winter. Last year we had quite a bit of ridging in Alaska as well, right? I think La nina provides the best chances for winter down in the south.
For me, Nina can be scary if the high is over the top of me. Want it to be a weakening nina scenario for the best snow in the Rockies, similar to '22-'23.
Last year we had about 3 fairly large arctic blasts and that was tough. The air is so dry in the house from the heater running, does a number on the sinuses.
I think in a month or so, i'll do a deep dive into this upcoming winter and my mediocre thoughts and forecast, but as of now, that large pool of water off the coast of Japan will play a huge role for our winter. It will roll its way right into the sweet spot which can lead a many -EPO situations.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.
With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?
With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.
With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?
We also missed here and only have one on the books. I'm hoping but not convinced yet if hurricane season can get going. That's gonna determine our fate the rest of the summer
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
Brent wrote:mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.
With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?
We also missed here and only have one on the books. I'm hoping but not convinced yet if hurricane season can get going. That's gonna determine our fate the rest of the summer
It usually makes the heat worse here.
So I can say no hurricanes unless they are Pacific.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
rwfromkansas wrote:Brent wrote:mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.
With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?
We also missed here and only have one on the books. I'm hoping but not convinced yet if hurricane season can get going. That's gonna determine our fate the rest of the summer
It usually makes the heat worse here.
So I can say no hurricanes unless they are Pacific.
Oh yeah I still remember after Laura which was barely in Louisiana how it got hot again in DFW
Also 1999 was really bad late while the east coast was getting slammed every week
So yeah
Ironically 2020 as crazy as it was had no 100s here but still. I'm not gonna trust it
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.
With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?
Today was yet another bust, with only a high of 97*F.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
Sneaky system in the eastern gulf that might need to be watched over the next few days.
Nothing from NHC yet but wouldn't surprise me if they tagged it at least in future updates with the 12z Euro ens showing 50/50 odds of a TD.
Nothing from NHC yet but wouldn't surprise me if they tagged it at least in future updates with the 12z Euro ens showing 50/50 odds of a TD.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
Flood watch issued here today for a MCS… during the peak of Summer LOL.


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Re: Texas Summer 2025
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
wxman22 wrote:Flood watch issued here today for a MCS… during the peak of Summer LOL.
https://i.ibb.co/NndRkgvy/IMG-0508.png
Lol big thunder and lightning here on the day after the all time record high was set in 1936


I hope we keep this active pattern going into the fall and winter
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
Serious question, how many warnings are we up to in and around Wichita Falls this year? It must be at least 20 or 25.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
mmmmsnouts wrote:Serious question, how many warnings are we up to in and around Wichita Falls this year? It must be at least 20 or 25.
There's been 53 severe thunderstorm warnings in Wichita County so far this year per Iowa states mesonet data.
There's been a lot of heavy rain and hail on the north/west side of the county this evening. Some localized spots picked up over 2 inches.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025
A tiny rain bomb yesterday morning dropped ~0.75" at my office. Later in the afternoon another dropped very isolated, but nice, amounts just to the north of my house. 30% chance today, 40% tomorrow, and 30% on Thursday. I think tomorrow looks like the best chance for more widespread showers in my local area, but still glad to see any rain.
The last few GFS runs has shown hope for more of Texas over the next 1-2 weeks as well. At least the eastern half.
Tropics-wise, the gulf looks pretty quiet for the next couple of weeks. Erin looks to recurve out to east east of the US. Always the possibility for something home-grown, like that sneaky wave currently south of LA, so we'll have to wait and see.
The last few GFS runs has shown hope for more of Texas over the next 1-2 weeks as well. At least the eastern half.
Tropics-wise, the gulf looks pretty quiet for the next couple of weeks. Erin looks to recurve out to east east of the US. Always the possibility for something home-grown, like that sneaky wave currently south of LA, so we'll have to wait and see.
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