Texas Summer 2025

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#681 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 06, 2025 11:23 am

I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#682 Postby cstrunk » Wed Aug 06, 2025 11:58 am

Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.


Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#683 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Wed Aug 06, 2025 4:45 pm

cstrunk wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.


Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.

Hoping nothing gets into the Gulf. It seems common for a gulf storm to crash, curve east, and pull the death ridge right over Texas. No need for that now.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#684 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 06, 2025 5:18 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
cstrunk wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.


Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.

Hoping nothing gets into the Gulf. It seems common for a gulf storm to crash, curve east, and pull the death ridge right over Texas. No need for that now.


Yeah I will pass. We're so close to being past the worst of summer :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#685 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Aug 06, 2025 7:40 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
cstrunk wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I’m thinking we might need to watch the models beginning this weekend for the next wave about to exit Africa and possibly watch the Caribbean/Gulf around the 15th-20th.


Agree - tropics looking more interesting within a couple of weeks per recent Euro and GFS runs. Something to keep an eye on.

Hoping nothing gets into the Gulf. It seems common for a gulf storm to crash, curve east, and pull the death ridge right over Texas. No need for that now.


Entering a more favored climatology time period for the western Gulf as we move deeper into August.

Been monitoring tropics since late July as the MJO forecast was hinting at a more active period as we moved into August.

Ensembles definitely saying watch out in the 10-15 but as usual this far out, it's a wait and see situation but at the very minimum we should see a bit more activity.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#686 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 07, 2025 8:17 am

The 0z GFS was uh quite disturbing :eek: fortunately it's a long way out

That would be the last thing Texas needs right now
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#687 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Aug 07, 2025 10:47 am

Ntxw wrote:Pacific SSTA has increased over the summer season off the west coast. Ridging there has been favored and played a role in preventing a scorching summer. It will set shop again in the medium term. Will this continue into the Fall and Winter? Predominantly has connections to a -EPO with such a set up.


I think it will play a big role in the coming winter. Last year we had quite a bit of ridging in Alaska as well, right? I think La nina provides the best chances for winter down in the south.
For me, Nina can be scary if the high is over the top of me. Want it to be a weakening nina scenario for the best snow in the Rockies, similar to '22-'23.
Last year we had about 3 fairly large arctic blasts and that was tough. The air is so dry in the house from the heater running, does a number on the sinuses.
I think in a month or so, i'll do a deep dive into this upcoming winter and my mediocre thoughts and forecast, but as of now, that large pool of water off the coast of Japan will play a huge role for our winter. It will roll its way right into the sweet spot which can lead a many -EPO situations.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#688 Postby mmmmsnouts » Fri Aug 08, 2025 8:12 pm

Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.

With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#689 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 08, 2025 8:36 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.

With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?


We also missed here and only have one on the books. I'm hoping but not convinced yet if hurricane season can get going. That's gonna determine our fate the rest of the summer
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#690 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Aug 09, 2025 6:05 pm

Brent wrote:
mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.

With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?


We also missed here and only have one on the books. I'm hoping but not convinced yet if hurricane season can get going. That's gonna determine our fate the rest of the summer


It usually makes the heat worse here.

So I can say no hurricanes unless they are Pacific.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#691 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 09, 2025 7:07 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Brent wrote:
mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.

With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?


We also missed here and only have one on the books. I'm hoping but not convinced yet if hurricane season can get going. That's gonna determine our fate the rest of the summer


It usually makes the heat worse here.

So I can say no hurricanes unless they are Pacific.


Oh yeah I still remember after Laura which was barely in Louisiana how it got hot again in DFW

Also 1999 was really bad late while the east coast was getting slammed every week

So yeah

Ironically 2020 as crazy as it was had no 100s here but still. I'm not gonna trust it
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#692 Postby snownado » Sat Aug 09, 2025 7:14 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:Another triple-digit forecast kind of busted today - the forecast was for 101 at DFW, but it stopped at 98 and the Heat Advisory criteria ended up not being met.

With normal temperatures predicted next week and the calendar starting to work against it, have we already seen our last 100 degree day of the season?


Today was yet another bust, with only a high of 97*F.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#693 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Aug 10, 2025 5:56 pm

Sneaky system in the eastern gulf that might need to be watched over the next few days.

Nothing from NHC yet but wouldn't surprise me if they tagged it at least in future updates with the 12z Euro ens showing 50/50 odds of a TD.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#694 Postby cstrunk » Sun Aug 10, 2025 5:58 pm

Surprise shower this afternoon at least got the ground wet. 0.15".
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#695 Postby wxman22 » Mon Aug 11, 2025 9:26 am

Flood watch issued here today for a MCS… during the peak of Summer LOL.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#696 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Aug 11, 2025 1:54 pm

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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#697 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 11, 2025 6:09 pm

wxman22 wrote:Flood watch issued here today for a MCS… during the peak of Summer LOL.

https://i.ibb.co/NndRkgvy/IMG-0508.png


Lol big thunder and lightning here on the day after the all time record high was set in 1936

:lol: :spam:

I hope we keep this active pattern going into the fall and winter
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#698 Postby mmmmsnouts » Mon Aug 11, 2025 6:55 pm

Serious question, how many warnings are we up to in and around Wichita Falls this year? It must be at least 20 or 25.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#699 Postby wxman22 » Mon Aug 11, 2025 7:15 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:Serious question, how many warnings are we up to in and around Wichita Falls this year? It must be at least 20 or 25.


There's been 53 severe thunderstorm warnings in Wichita County so far this year per Iowa states mesonet data.

There's been a lot of heavy rain and hail on the north/west side of the county this evening. Some localized spots picked up over 2 inches.
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Re: Texas Summer 2025

#700 Postby cstrunk » Tue Aug 12, 2025 7:58 am

A tiny rain bomb yesterday morning dropped ~0.75" at my office. Later in the afternoon another dropped very isolated, but nice, amounts just to the north of my house. 30% chance today, 40% tomorrow, and 30% on Thursday. I think tomorrow looks like the best chance for more widespread showers in my local area, but still glad to see any rain.

The last few GFS runs has shown hope for more of Texas over the next 1-2 weeks as well. At least the eastern half.

Tropics-wise, the gulf looks pretty quiet for the next couple of weeks. Erin looks to recurve out to east east of the US. Always the possibility for something home-grown, like that sneaky wave currently south of LA, so we'll have to wait and see.
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