Tropical Wave over the Northwest Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[jaguars_22]

Might as well start a discussion about this wave in the western Caribbean. Looks to head in to the BOC/SW Gulf and towards Mexico/Texas this weekend! It already has a curvature look to it… could be a small system!

[ChrisH-UK]

I presume your talking about this on the coast of Nicaragua. The models have it heading over the Yucatan and heading to north Mexico near the US border. I don't think it will get organised saying that warm waters, low shear and plenty of moisture make the environment favorable.

[Hurricaneman]

This could be a real sleeper wave, needs to be watched in south Texas and Northern Mexico for further development

[zzzh]

Agreed. I don't think any model showed southwesterly winds. It is trying to form a circulation right now.

[Stratton23]

No signs of any surface low with this feature, will be interesting to see if it holds together as it gets into the BOC and generally heads NW toward north mexico or south texas around brownsville

[chaser1]

This feature has maintained its convection for a good 24 hours when I then identified a weak but nonetheless small area of rotation around 12.5 & 82.5 yesterday evening. A nice anticyclone appears to be moving WNW with it at the moment. I havnt had a chance to look at ship or station reports down there but I'd have to think that there's falling pressures in that region. I wouldn't be shocked to see a short fuse TD or possibly even a weak TS try and develop as it moves into Belize.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This feature has maintained its convection for a good 24 hours when I then identified a weak but nonetheless small area of rotation around 12.5 & 82.5 yesterday evening. A nice anticyclone appears to be moving WNW with it at the moment. I havnt had a chance to look at ship or station reports down there but I'd have to think that there's falling pressures in that region. I wouldn't be shocked to see a short fuse TD or possibly even a weak TS try and develop as it moves into Belize.

This is the same wave that went over Trinidad a couple of days ago, and one of the forecasters on YouTube was mentioning it was something to watch

[TomballEd]

I think the reason the models don't see development is the disturbance is surrounded by dry air as seen on model mid-level RH and PWAT products. The disturbance itself is in an area of higher, though not amazing, atmospheric moisture. Passage over land won't help it. If it had another day or two in the Gulf it might be able to moisten up its surroundings.

[Cpv17]

The NHC is now giving this area a 20% chance.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across eastern
Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua and adjacent marine areas. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while
the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Stratton23]

Some support from the 18z EPS, the ones that show development show it forming tommorow while its still in the NW caribbean

[Cpv17]

Some support from the 18z EPS, the ones that show development show it forming tommorow while its still in the NW caribbean

Needs a good DMAX.

[Tailgater33]

Looks like, mostly a mid level feature at this point. I’m still watching it cuz it’s the BOC and all.

[Frank P]

Nice little spin as it cross the Yucatan

[Stratton23]

the disturbance is actually holding together quite well, this could potentially be one of those surprise systems that the global models dont see coming

[LarryWx]

the disturbance is actually holding together quite well, this could potentially be one of those surprise systems that the global models dont see coming

The Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf has overperformed in recent years.

[Nimbus]

As it passed over the Yucatan you could see some organized structure.
Any surface pressure readings for this wave?

[cycloneye]

Look what we have here. Possible missions for Thursday and Friday.

SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 14/1800Z A. 15/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 14/1530Z C. 15/0900Z
D. 20.4N 94.4W D. 22.8N 97.0W
E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2200Z E. 15/1100Z TO 15/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO= 10/10

Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no
significant increase in organization. Some development of this
system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf
beginning on Thursday while it moves to the northwest at 10 to 15
mph. The system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico
by late Friday, which should diminish its chances of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Stratton23]

The wave pocket is moving more NW than WNW over the yucatan peninsula, NHC has the “X” too far to the south of where the mid level spin is, it actually looks pretty decent, i dont trust this one at all