ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

5 PM. Still some islands are in the southern end of cone but there was a slight shift to the north.

https://i.imgur.com/sGwuuZZ.png

Still on track for a Bermuda bullseye. That would be two very-early season hits in a row.

[chaser1]

Good data about CONUS landfalls.

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1955330103183016293

I don't know if this tells us that much at this juncture, since it's still far enough east that within 150 miles of its current position will include a lot of tropical cyclones that recurved along 40 or 45W, which we know won't be the case here.

You are correct. In fact, let's forget about any 150 mile radius of Erin's location (roughly 38W & 17N). In August 1993, the eye wall of major hurricane Emily struck the N. Carolina Banks (where I intercepted the storm in Buxton). I believe that Emily formed on Aug 25th close to 28N and about 60W. Sure, it was a good deal further west then Erin is at this time, but Emily also was a good deal further north then Erin presently is as well.

Fun fact: Emily too was that season's 1st storm to reach hurricane intensity that year (which happened to end up as a slightly below average season).

[chaser1]

Odd that the NHC held at 40 kt for 11am despite the 12z BT dropping to 35 kt.

Agreed, but that was largely for continuity's sake. Overall I am seeing a less coherent inner core. Atm, Erin is looking a bit disheveled.

[Nimbus]

Is there a chance that it gets so far south that it runs into the shredder, stays too weak that it misses the weakness and gets into the gulf?

Highly unlikely at the moment. Even the HAFS-A model, which shows a marginal TS or TD all the way to 60W, still has it slide just north of the islands. Erin will likely be steered north to some degree even in these weak scenarios. A weaker short- to mid-term Erin raises the odds of an East Coast or Bahamas impact at the most.

We should have a good handle on the ridge alignment when Erin crosses 23 N, next day or two she will continue west as a weak storm till the warmer SST's near -45 w and head poleward as she spins up.

[chaser1]

In spite of Erin's present appearance, I think there remains a very significant possibility of NC flirting with a major hurricane by the time all is said and done. The extent of the New England trough negative tilt, as well as the Southeast CONUS high filling in and bridging eastward (or either feature doing the contrary) will be big factors going into early next week. That fact that Erin is weak & racing westward surely helps muddy up the picture for everyone .... starting with the Lesser/Greater Antilles.

[cycloneye]

Is very quiet in this thread. If you are a tropical weather fan it does not matter if a storm does not go to any part of the U.S because there is plenty to discusss about Erin and its future track and intensity. I will comment about the new convection burst ERIN is going thru.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track at 16.8N.

AL, 05, 2025081300, , BEST, 0, 168N, 393W, 40, 1004, TS

[CycloysisNegative]

Is very quiet in this thread. If you are a tropical weather fan it does not matter if a storm does not go to any part of the U.S because there is plenty to discusss about Erin and its future track and intensity. I will comment about the new convection burst ERIN is going thru.

https://i.imgur.com/0uRqCeM.gif

I wonder if the blow up convection on the south side will tug it S; we’ve seen sloppy systems in the past have asymmetrical convection distributions affect its track in the past.

[galaxy401]

Is very quiet in this thread. If you are a tropical weather fan it does not matter if a storm does not go to any part of the U.S because there is plenty to discusss about Erin and its future track and intensity. I will comment about the new convection burst ERIN is going thru.

Many users (admittedly myself too) I think are still in sleep mode. Once Erin starts to organize and there's more media coverage, the activity will greatly increase here.

[cycloneye]

11 PM advisorie has two M's at the end of forecast period at graphic. Still southern side of cone is over some of the northern leeward islands, BVI and U.SVI.

[REDHurricane]

Entering warmer waters now.

[WaveBreaking]

Erin’s trying to mix out the dry air from its core atm

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1955527371798270399

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like Erin finally has some meat on her bones.

[GCANE]

Some improvement in atmospheric conditions today.
Erin is now tracking into an anticyclone.

Otherwise, still have a number of negative factors for strengthening.
1) Very strong SAL.
2) LL Vort to the SE

[GCANE]

GFS 355K PV trend is showing a flattening north of Erin when north of the Virgin Islands.
This could lead into a later recurve for future model runs.

[Nimbus]

Erin looks pretty weak this morning she is drying out between convective bursts but will be over warmer SST's as she crosses -45W and still has a closed circulation center. Weakness dropping down over Bermuda overnight still too far north for a weak system to feel. Small chance Erin ends up too far south and doesn't get picked up in time like Irma.

[cycloneye]

First visible images shows improvement but there is still some easterly shear.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1955590841453478093