ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

11 PM advisorie has two M's at the end of forecast period at graphic. Still southern side of cone is over some of the northern leeward islands, BVI and U.SVI.

https://i.imgur.com/GUbaXkc.png

Although some of the islands are in the cone, the model consensus at that point is fairly tight and spares them. So perhaps lower risk than you might typically feel at the edge of the cone.

[NDG]

The SE US is very lucky the -NAO is going negative just in time.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1955605196937003487

[cycloneye]

A new burst of deep convection over the circulation.

[jlauderdal]

Erin looks pretty weak this morning she is drying out between convective bursts but will be over warmer SST's as she crosses -45W and still has a closed circulation center. Weakness dropping down over Bermuda overnight still too far north for a weak system to feel. Small chance Erin ends up too far south and doesn't get picked up in time like Irma.

The post count on the globals thread might outpace this thread in the next few days.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

A new burst of deep convection over the circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/4pl8RRK.png

She is started to get "that look"

[wxman57]

11 PM advisorie has two M's at the end of forecast period at graphic. Still southern side of cone is over some of the northern leeward islands, BVI and U.SVI.

https://i.imgur.com/GUbaXkc.png

Although some of the islands are in the cone, the model consensus at that point is fairly tight and spares them. So perhaps lower risk than you might typically feel at the edge of the cone.

As a reminder the cone is meaningless as far as potential impacts. It has nothing to do with forecast confidence for this storm, and it does not have anything to do with Erin's projected wind field or squalls. All the cone represents is a 5-year average track error. It says that 66.7% of the time over the past five seasons, the center of the storm tracked somewhere within that cone. Do NOT use the cone for planning purposes or to assess potential storm impacts.

[Bizzles]

11 PM advisorie has two M's at the end of forecast period at graphic. Still southern side of cone is over some of the northern leeward islands, BVI and U.SVI.

https://i.imgur.com/GUbaXkc.png

Although some of the islands are in the cone, the model consensus at that point is fairly tight and spares them. So perhaps lower risk than you might typically feel at the edge of the cone.

As a reminder the cone is meaningless as far as potential impacts. It has nothing to do with forecast confidence for this storm, and it does not have anything to do with Erin's projected wind field or squalls. All the cone represents is a 5-year average track error. It says that 66.7% of the time over the past five seasons, the center of the storm tracked somewhere within that cone. Do NOT use the cone for planning purposes or to assess potential storm impacts.

Great point Wxman57! Would you share what products you would keep an eye on as we get closer to better understand what potential impacts (surge, wind, etc) could be?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

11 PM advisorie has two M's at the end of forecast period at graphic. Still southern side of cone is over some of the northern leeward islands, BVI and U.SVI.

https://i.imgur.com/GUbaXkc.png

Although some of the islands are in the cone, the model consensus at that point is fairly tight and spares them. So perhaps lower risk than you might typically feel at the edge of the cone.

As a reminder the cone is meaningless as far as potential impacts. It has nothing to do with forecast confidence for this storm, and it does not have anything to do with Erin's projected wind field or squalls. All the cone represents is a 5-year average track error. It says that 66.7% of the time over the past five seasons, the center of the storm tracked somewhere within that cone. Do NOT use the cone for planning purposes or to assess potential storm impacts.

That's my point - it is based on historical average error which may be more or less applicable to any given storm. This storm, there appears to be higher-than-average consensus through 5 days, so the center is more likely to stay within the cone. And as you say, wind field may extend well beyond the center, etc. The northern leeward islands will likely feel some impacts but hopefully will be spared the worst of it.

[wxman57]

Although some of the islands are in the cone, the model consensus at that point is fairly tight and spares them. So perhaps lower risk than you might typically feel at the edge of the cone.

As a reminder the cone is meaningless as far as potential impacts. It has nothing to do with forecast confidence for this storm, and it does not have anything to do with Erin's projected wind field or squalls. All the cone represents is a 5-year average track error. It says that 66.7% of the time over the past five seasons, the center of the storm tracked somewhere within that cone. Do NOT use the cone for planning purposes or to assess potential storm impacts.

Great point Wxman57! Would you share what products you would keep an eye on as we get closer to better understand what potential impacts (surge, wind, etc) could be?

Unless you have access to your own meteorologist, then it's best to pay attention to the latest official information from the NHC and your local NWS office. I always read the forecast discussions to get an idea what the forecaster was thinking. For you in NJ, surf's up come next Thursday/Friday! Erin should be a very large and powerful hurricane next Wednesday as it passes by Bermuda. Lots of big waves into the coast as it passes.

[Cachondo23]

Currently at 16.4N, how low will it go?

[Teban54]

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Euro is starting to trend to a weaker cane when Erin is just north of PR.
This is inline with ICON and deviates from GFS.

[Teban54]

This may be old news, but NHC has actually launched an interactive cone map under "Experimental Cone", that allows you to drag and zoom in.

Currently, the cone itself isn't interactive. It would be nice if we could click on each forecast point to see the forecast wind speed, radius of hurricane-force winds, etc. But these features can always be added over time.

[sasha_B]

T3.0 at 18z, per NOAA.

13/1800 UTC 16.4N 44.3W T3.0/3.0 ERIN -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 45 kt.

AL, 05, 2025081318, , BEST, 0, 163N, 443W, 45, 1002, TS

[Teban54]

Welcome back, deep convection!

[cycloneye]

Welcome back, deep convection!

https://i.postimg.cc/DzbNYC4B/goes19-ir-05-L-202508131635.gif

Apart from the deep convection, look at the fanning of the cirrus clouds. That is a signal showing is about to takeoff in intensity.

[Kingarabian]

Possibility the center shifts a little further south below that deep convection

[weeniepatrol]