ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Sunset

[WaveBreaking]

Also here's a "true" color image of Erin I made using the red, green, and blue visible GOES channels. I think it came out pretty good looking.

[jconsor]

Tropical Storm #Erin continues trucking west and is showing signs of life after nearly two days of struggling. While a weakness in the western Atlantic ridge is a given, how quickly the ridge rebounds and what role an eastern US trough play could lead to some longer-term track intrigue.
Check out the full in-depth analysis and a parody of a 1970s R&B classic here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/losin-latitude

[ScottNAtlanta]

It still looks to me like it is south of due west. The longer this loses latitude the more you can bet we will see track changes.

[Kingarabian]

Convective canopy has dipped below 16N. Not sure if the LLC is sitting just north of the convection.

[Coolcruiseman]

It still looks to me like it is south of due west. The longer this loses latitude the more you can bet we will see track changes.

All the more reason to keep focusing on trends. As the saying goes timing is everything in regards to the forecasted weakness.

Also why I’m not sold on the recurve even though it appears likely at this point.

[cycloneye]

Convective canopy has dipped below 16N. Not sure if the LLC is sitting just north of the convection.

Let's see if there will be an ASCAT pass over the storm to see in reallity, where is the circulation.

[zzzh]

Looks pretty good. Need microwave to see what's under the hood.

[cycloneye]

TXNT25 KNES 140017
TCSNTL

A. 05L (ERIN)

B. 14/0000Z

C. 16.2N

D. 46.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/PRXY/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. LGT NE SHEAR IMPACTING
SYSTEM. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW BECMG MORE DEFINED S AND SW QUADS. MET=2.5 AND
PT=3.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/1837Z 16.3N 44.5W SSMIS

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track. Moving west at 270 degrees.

AL, 05, 2025081400, , BEST, 0, 163N, 459W, 45, 1002, TS

[msbee]

Why do I feel that Erin is heading right for me?

[cycloneye]

Why do I feel that Erin is heading right for me?

Dont feel that way Barbara. All the models have Erin passing north of St Marteen and you will have some indirect effects such as some rainbands with gusty winds and the surf will be very high.

[msbee]

Why do I feel that Erin is heading right for me?

Dont feel that way Barbara. All the models have Erin passing north of St Marteen and you will have some indirect effects such as some rainbands with gusty winds and the surf will be very high.

Hi Luis. Yes, that is what we’re expecting here. I know we all will be ok but I won’t feel totally confident until I see her making that north turn.
Thanks for all your updates.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1955806358474731689

[Teban54]

Looking pretty good.

[wzrgirl1]

What’s with these west shifts?

[cycloneye]

NHC did not moved the forecast track as it is the same as the 5 PM one.

[Teban54]

NHC did not moved the forecast track as it is the same as the 5 PM one.



https://i.imgur.com/3GZC1ao.png

Note that with the time frame moving up, the new peak at the end of the forecast (120 hrs) is 110 kt, almost Cat 4.

[zzzh]

Disagree with NHC's position estimate. Scatterometer clearly shows that the center is at 16N.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/pfbeVTr.png
Disagree with NHC's position estimate. Scatterometer clearly shows that the center is at 16N

Something I just noticed on the Univ of Wisconsin site is that when you look at vorticity from 925 up to 700, it is south of where Erin is indicated to be. Do they get that position from NHC? If they do, it doesn't pan out with where all the vorticity is. That vorticity to the east might be adding an unknown as well.