ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[GCANE]

Now getting some short-duration hot towers

Very close to the CoC

[msbee]

That LL Vort east of Erin has finally detached and weakened quite a bit.
Opens the door now to move due WNW.

I am here waiting for that move. Every forecast puts her a little closer to me then I would like her to be.

[GCANE]

Currently on forecast track 16.4N 48.3W.
Curve to the WNW is forecast to begin shortly at 49W.

[GCANE]

Seeing a large convective blob firing now NE of the CoC.
Indicative of a feeder band developing.

[cycloneye]

Erin is now reaching warmer waters that will fuel it and takeoff intensitywise.

[cycloneye]

12z Best track is up to 50 kt and is still moving west at 270 degrees.

AL, 05, 2025081412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 489W, 50, 999, TS

[GCANE]

Currently on forecast track 16.4N 48.3W.
Curve to the WNW is forecast to begin shortly at 49W.

16.6N 49.1W
Curve to the WNW has begun

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Looked better overnight. Sort of looks like convection has been displaced a bit more this morning.

[TampaWxLurker]

Moving at 275° per the 11am advisory, so the turn north has started, if only just.

[cycloneye]

Barbara, Patti and other members in the northern Leewards. Is starting to turn slowly and is not strait west anymore.

The initial motion is now 275/15. The storm continues to be steered
by a subtropical ridge to the north, and this ridge should steer the
cyclone generally west-northwestward during the next three days.

[WeatherBoy2000]

As long as there is deep convection paired with northwesterly shear, Erin will be more prone to southerly deviations in track:

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1956004073208975656

[GCANE]

Picking up steam

[NotAHurricane]

I’m usually my friends go-to person to ask about the likelihood of a storm hitting us. I’ve been asked twice in the last two days if we’ll get hit with Erin. I said it’s way too soon, the earliest we could see any potential impacts would be later next week (I am in N.S.), if anything were to come this way. I wish I could see into the future but I also wish people understood I can’t give a definite answer.

I’m not even a meteorologist, just someone with a lifelong interest in the weather.

[cycloneye]

The shrimp.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1956026370116489501

[cycloneye]

Is that a faint eye feature at the 50W line or is a high tower? Take a good look.

[zzzh]

12Z Scatterometer only showed 30kt winds...

[ScottNAtlanta]

As long as there is deep convection paired with northwesterly shear, Erin will be more prone to southerly deviations in track:

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1956004073208975656

For those of us not on X could you post the other 2 parts to this?

[aspen]

It almost seems as if shear has slightly worsened over Erin since this time yesterday. Deep convection is persistent and outflow has further expanded to the west and southern areas of the storm, but the impacts of shear on the north and east seem more pronounced this afternoon.

Hurricane models seem to be responding to this and are pushing back Erin’s predicted RI phase. However, I’m not sure how accurate they are because they’ve been struggling to properly initialize the storm. Today’s 12z HWRF starts off with a naked swirl, more like its structure 2 days ago.

[IsabelaWeather]

Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 75. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night Scattered showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tropical Storm conditions introduced for Sunday for MBY