ATL: ERIN - Models

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS shifts slightly left of 6z. West wall is 70.0W 6z was 69.5, smooth recurve, although it does get close to Newfoundland.

[mitchell]

Did I just see the GFS stall Hurricane Erin????!!!!!!

Just looked at the entire 12z GFS run and didn't see any stalling. Gets fairly slow as it recurves near the Turks and Caicos but never stalls or wobbles.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Ensembles shifted a bit right, a few members over/east of Bermuda again. Only a single 1 clips the US (Cape Canaveral)

Still waiting for the recon fed runs tomorrow.

[DunedinDave]

Did I just see the GFS stall Hurricane Erin????!!!!!!

Just looked at the entire 12z GFS run and didn't see any stalling. Gets fairly slow as it recurves near the Turks and Caicos but never stalls or wobbles.

Strong storms tend to slow down before they make a turn. Pretty common. So not surprised with models slowing it down around Bahamas before the pull north.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z guidance is more westerly as it recurves but is still closer to Bermuda because it hooks back to the east at the end:

[GCANE]

Large jump in intensification probabilities across all categories.




A few outliers are now hitting the coast.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro is slightly right of 0z. 72.3W is the westernmost it gets. avoids all land.

[Kingarabian]

Todays runs looking better in terms of no landfall

[floridasun]

Todays runs looking better in terms of no landfall

that cannot say yet no one east coast is safe yet even nhc say it models keep moving west and east and west let not wise cast here go what nhc say

[syfr]

Todays runs looking better in terms of no landfall

Sure seems that way. It's started it's slow northern climb.

Fingers crossed you're right!

[OuterBanker]

G IV flies tonight. Should be in models tomorrow.

[CrazyC83]

Best case looks to be the consensus right now, but obviously so much uncertainty. We have to also remember the furthest-out models take it to Bermuda...so it needs to thread the needle. Also, it is likely to be a very large storm at that point.

[72Packer]

Best case looks to be the consensus right now, but obviously so much uncertainty. We have to also remember the furthest-out models take it to Bermuda...so it needs to thread the needle. Also, it is likely to be a very large storm at that point.

I hope the models are correct and it stays out to sea. I live about 25 miles east of Raleigh and have had about 10.5 in of rain in the last 7 days. Strong winds in eastern NC would fell a lot of trees with ground so wet.

[Stratton23]

18z ICON another shift west, gets dangerously close to the grand bahamas as a cat 5, could get even closer to the SE US if the run went beyond 120 hours

[sasha_B]

18z ICON another shift west, gets dangerously close to the grand bahamas as a cat 5, could get even closer to the SE US if the run went beyond 120 hours

Yeah ICON forecasts for Erin in general have been alarming over the past 48 hours. They are thankfully not in line with the bulk of the guidance, at least at the moment, but I'd have a lot more confidence if it weren't for the consistency with which they've been trending toward this type of scenario.

[BobHarlem]

Putting the last frame of the 18z Icon. I wish it would give up this idea.

[Nimbus]

Last frame of the 18Z ICON is still 5 days out but at the 500 mb steering level the high looks more like a ridge retrograding west. A couple more runs and it will have to give up on this idea and join the other models or declare a landfall.

[Teban54]

Not that my memory of ICON's performance is particularly clear or objective, but I feel that it's pretty much hit or miss. There were some past storms for which it was the only model with a correct forecast, when all the more reliable global models were playing catchup (though I can't recall specific examples). But there were also cases where its perseverance ended badly: it kept plunging Dorian into Florida until the last minute.

So I dunno... At least we should be glad that even ICON isn't showing a landfall just yet, not even in the Bahamas (though 18z got really close).

[Pelicane]

I was looking at the model thread for Earl (this seems very similar to that storm atm) and there were a few runs from models like the HWRF for example, that did show landfalls in the outer banks. I know with Dorian the HWRF also had it making landfall
in Florida. I think as long as these western outliers are offshore then we should be in a good spot for a recurve.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Not that my memory of ICON's performance is particularly clear or objective, but I feel that it's pretty much hit or miss. There were some past storms for which it was the only model with a correct forecast, when all the more reliable global models were playing catchup (though I can't recall specific examples). But there were also cases where its perseverance ended badly: it kept plunging Dorian into Florida until the last minute.

So I dunno... At least we should be glad that even ICON isn't showing a landfall just yet, not even in the Bahamas (though 18z got really close).

It also bombed with 93l recently, hard to bet against consensus.