ATL: ERIN - Models

[DunedinDave]

Definitely setting up as a nice battle the ICON vs GFS. ICON hugs Bahamas while GFS turns it well before then. Euro seems to be playing the compromiser right now and may end up being the one to hit it spot on.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS ensembles are left of 12z, but east of the 6z. It's back to no members east or over Bermuda. A few members go over eastern North Carolina

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS Ensemble Track Plot. Striking how every line is red.


18z HAFS A


18z HAFS B

[ScottNAtlanta]

When will the first model run be with the data from recon?

[REDHurricane]

Nothing overtly alarming yet, but these recent model runs as a whole have consistently been shifting to the left, with the GFS operational and NHC as outliers for the most part

[Kingarabian]

00z ICON continues to be on the western side of the envelope. Sits a borderline Cat.5 just off shore NC.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET shifted a bit E with recurve at 69.6W (vs 71.9W on 12Z) meaning passing by closer to Bermuda:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 51.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2025 0 17.1N 51.9W 1004 34
1200UTC 15.08.2025 12 18.0N 55.1W 1003 37
0000UTC 16.08.2025 24 19.5N 58.1W 1001 39
1200UTC 16.08.2025 36 20.3N 61.6W 999 41
0000UTC 17.08.2025 48 20.8N 64.4W 996 40
1200UTC 17.08.2025 60 21.4N 66.5W 992 46
0000UTC 18.08.2025 72 22.5N 67.7W 989 48
1200UTC 18.08.2025 84 24.1N 68.7W 987 50
0000UTC 19.08.2025 96 25.9N 69.2W 985 52
1200UTC 19.08.2025 108 27.5N 69.4W 983 57
0000UTC 20.08.2025 120 29.4N 69.6W 979 60
1200UTC 20.08.2025 132 31.7N 68.7W 971 64
0000UTC 21.08.2025 144 33.8N 67.2W 964 70
1200UTC 21.08.2025 156 35.8N 64.0W 960 73
0000UTC 22.08.2025 168 37.6N 59.0W 954 75

[Teban54]

0z GFS clips Newfoundland (St. John's) with a dangerously small margin, the smallest among all recent runs:

[Woofde]

Not that my memory of ICON's performance is particularly clear or objective, but I feel that it's pretty much hit or miss. There were some past storms for which it was the only model with a correct forecast, when all the more reliable global models were playing catchup (though I can't recall specific examples). But there were also cases where its perseverance ended badly: it kept plunging Dorian into Florida until the last minute.

So I dunno... At least we should be glad that even ICON isn't showing a landfall just yet, not even in the Bahamas (though 18z got really close).

Yeah, it's had some misses for sure, but also a considerable number of hits in recent years. Beryl, Helene and Idalia all come to mind. Given the large lead times, I'll certainly be keeping an eye on this. Chances are still favoring a recurve, but an East Coast hit is still possible.

[LarryWx]

Not that my memory of ICON's performance is particularly clear or objective, but I feel that it's pretty much hit or miss. There were some past storms for which it was the only model with a correct forecast, when all the more reliable global models were playing catchup (though I can't recall specific examples). But there were also cases where its perseverance ended badly: it kept plunging Dorian into Florida until the last minute.

So I dunno... At least we should be glad that even ICON isn't showing a landfall just yet, not even in the Bahamas (though 18z got really close).

Yeah, it's had some misses for sure, but also a considerable number of hits in recent years. Beryl, Helene and Idalia all come to mind. Given the large lead times, I'll certainly be keeping an eye on this. Chances are still favoring a recurve, but an East Coast hit is still possible.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250815/fba1a18392dd09ad7d81e689759634cb.jpg

The Icon is, indeed, often a hit or bad miss. For Ian, it did much better than the terrible GFS and CMC and even significantly better than the Euro. But it actually wasn’t the best, which was the absolutely stellar UKMET. I have it all well documented. The UKMET is another hit or bad miss model.

[jlauderdal]

0z GFS clips Newfoundland (St. John's) with a dangerously small margin, the smallest among all recent runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/hj5pCjNm/image.png

The 1009 low moving through the MDR looks interesting

[BobHarlem]

Icon has given up on the trends of left shifts, and now shifting back to the right over the last two runs, although 914mb is probably the lowest I've ever seen the icon go this far in advance like this before.


I guess mostly the open question is how close it gets to the OBX or Bermuda, and canada at this point. (landfall is nearly out of the question)
There's a front just off North Carolina right now that kinda can be used as a gauge on where Erin probably will wind up (I.e. wherever that convection goes, Erin probably will too)

Models when they reach Bermuda's latitude: (Euro and Icon on the left of the midpoint between NC/Bermuda, CMC and GFS on the right)
6zGFS:


0z Euro:


0z Canadian:


0z Icon:

[syfr]

11AM NHC has it shooting the gap

[BobHarlem]

12z icon left of 6z again this morning (although still right of yesterday's 18z). These model runs are like playing chicken with a semi truck. It's going to turn, but it still looking threatening. (And is if you try to go the beach that week with the surf and rip currents) Cat 5 seems high, but it's actually possible.



Closest approach to obx:

[TampaWxLurker]

I'll give the ICON one thing, it's very adamant about squeezing Erin as close as it can to the Bahamas and OBX, more than any other model.

[jlauderdal]

I'll give the ICON one thing, it's very adamant about squeezing Erin as close as it can to the Bahamas and OBX, more than any other model.

It can't be completely discounted, too many wins

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[BobHarlem]

on the other side, 12z gfs is right, closer to bermuda and safely away from Canada later. Canadian hasn't noticeably shifted at the Bermuda latitude either direction, maybe very slightly left.

[DunedinDave]

Dang is Erin just the first of a train of storms coming? Seems like another one right behind it could be a more serious threat to States. It’s not just the GFS that’s hinting at something big on the horizon.

[aspen]

Last few HWRF runs (including the loading 12z) have shown Erin’s large, disorganized eyewall rapidly contracting to a much smaller eyewall overnight and resulting in RI to a Cat 2/3 in just 24-30 hours or so.

[Kingarabian]

A notable bust for the ICON for the 2nd time this season. Interesting because it did pretty good last year.