ATL: ERIN - Models

[BobHarlem]

A notable bust for the ICON for the 2nd time this season. Interesting because it did pretty good last year.

Going back to 12z a week ago, it's pretty dead on position wise for where erin is right now, just much weaker. I don't think you can say it busted ahead of time. But yeah if it winds up shifting right to match the others later then yeah. If it nails intensity getting to cat 5 it'll be arguable though.

[AxaltaRacing24]

A notable bust for the ICON for the 2nd time this season. Interesting because it did pretty good last year.

Going back to 12z a week ago, it's pretty dead on position wise for where erin is right now, just much weaker. I don't think you can say it busted ahead of time. But yeah if it winds up shifting right to match the others later then yeah. If it nails intensity getting to cat 5 it'll be arguable though.

The ICON was overdoing the southwest shift, but it was not entirely wrong. Other models shifted south for days and the storm will pass near the 8/8 Icon 12z, and will not recurve east of Bermuda. The GFS's 12z that Friday had Erin in the gulf.

[BobHarlem]

18z icon shifted right to be just to the left of the 12z Euro's track. Image is from the lowest pressure:

[sunnyday]

Bib,approximately how far is Erin from the east coast of Florida as seen in your post? Thank you for the information.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS is left of the 12z, but not as far west as the icon and Euro. (935 is lowest pressure on the GFS)

[StormWeather]

18z GFS is left of the 12z, but not as far west as the icon and Euro.

Appears here that the GFS takes it into the 930s. That’s nearing Category 5 status.

[BobHarlem]

Adding this here since it's so closely related to Erin. (Erin's ensembles are at the bottom) -- Edit: this already got outlooked at 8pm at 10%...
But it's the front off NC showing a decent signal on the Euro Ensembles. (this was the same area in the Gulf off Florida earlier in the week that got a brief mention on the outlook)


full set:

[Powellrm]

Not sure I follow the discourse of the ICON being very hit or miss. Are we talking about the same ICON? Over the last several years or so, ICON has nailed some very complex systems and called the trend quite early numerous times. Of course, it’s not correct every single time, as nothing is, but I wouldn’t say it’s very hit or miss. Or wildly inaccurate either. When the ICON model sniffs something out before others, it’s often worth following.

It would appear ICON has suggested a noticeably western shift with a significant dip in pressure. It certainly has my attention. The 910mb may be a bit wild, as it’s very far out as well. But with the relative ocean temps this early in the season and the wild RI we’ve seen time and time again over the last few years? I don’t find it that far fetched.

[StormWeather]

Not sure I follow the discourse of the ICON being very hit or miss. Are we talking about the same ICON? Over the last several years or so, ICON has nailed some very complex systems and called the trend quite early numerous times. Of course, it’s not correct every single time, as nothing is, but I wouldn’t say it’s very hit or miss. Or wildly inaccurate either. When the ICON model sniffs something out before others, it’s often worth following.
It would appear ICON has suggested a noticeably western shift with a significant dip in pressure. It certainly has my attention. The 910mb may be a bit wild, as it’s very far out as well. But with the relative ocean temps this early in the season and the wild RI we’ve seen time and time again over the last few years? I don’t find it that far fetched.

Definitely agree. Many storms in the past few years (Lee, Beryl, Milton, etc) have ramped up very quickly.

[redingtonbeach]

Bib,approximately how far is Erin from the east coast of Florida as seen in your post? Thank you for the information.

Quick guess? 500-600 miles to the eye?

[Cpav54]

Honestly I feel like we should be talking more about intensity rn because that is also kind of unknown, and it could potentially be a Category 5

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon is left of 18z a good amount here in the last matching frame, but actually goes right of the 12z later in run as it gets closer to the OBX. Lowest pressure on this run was 908mb (3mb higher than the minimum of 905mb on the 18z run)



closest approach to OBX, still a cat 5 here.

[Pelicane]

The Euro's 0z run from August 9th basically nailed Erin's current location to a tee. Very impressive accuracy for a 7 day time-frame!

[TampaWxLurker]

Maybe the ICON's stubborn west tendency was on to something.

[BobHarlem]

Not even going to bother posting any models this morning since even the icon apparently wasn't intense enough (that 905mb it had yesterday doesn't seem so unrealstic now).

[Hurricane2022]

This SHIPS run is absolutely cinematic.
 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1956704513567396338

[Kingarabian]

Not even going to bother posting any models this morning since even the icon apparently wasn't intense enough (that 905mb it had yesterday doesn't seem so unrealstic now).

ICON doing pretty well after all.

[Fancy1002]

So just so I understand, we’re not posting any of the 06Z models because they all obviously wrong due to Erin‘s current intensity.

[syfr]

So just so I understand, we’re not posting any of the 06Z models because they all obviously wrong due to Erin‘s current intensity.

Seems strange, since the track is (at least) equally as important as the intensity.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon is too far north at the start, and nowhere close to actual on intensity yet. I'm concerned the steering differences between a high end major and what it was before as far as what steering currents affect it more could make the track a bit off. Long term trend is probably generally still ok -- but a bit mixed, but it likely means more risk to the OBX. I really don't think modeling will catch up until 18 or more likely 0z. Everyone should be watching it.

24 hours out:


60 hours out is when it matches the current actual pressure:


Lowest pressure on 12z icon is 915 (which may be too high now...) also left of 6z