2025 ENSO Updates

[weeniepatrol]

Waters east of Japan are on fire.

PDO is collapsing.

https://imgur.com/SwMVlgc

Incredible.



Strongest negative monthly ever

[TampaWxLurker]

Not to sound like a total noob, but what are the implications of this as far as tropical activity goes?

[Kingarabian]

Waters east of Japan are on fire.

PDO is collapsing.

https://imgur.com/SwMVlgc

Incredible.

https://i.imgur.com/UxA1Ztc.png

Strongest negative monthly ever

Also likely means that the streak of no +PDO monthly readings will continue for a while.

[cycloneye]

Here comes La Niña!! Down to -0.4C on todays update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[LarryWx]

Here comes La Niña!! Down to -0.4C on todays update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/5pBBBKN.jpeg

Thanks, Luis. That -0.4 in 3.4 probably puts RONI near -0.7.

[cycloneye]

71% chance of having a weak La Niña between October thru December, but decreases after that.

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1966124577798692967

[weeniepatrol]

La Nina is officially here.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml


 https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1976271440610570721

[Steve H.]

Meanwhile in the Atlantic basin, it seems to me like an El Niño year!!

[Kingarabian]

There was pretty good social media chatter pre season that we may see +ENSO this season due to Nino 1+2 abnormally warming. We had a good amount of members here that countered tha notion and instead called for La Nina conditions to prevail over fall through the winter. That being said, this year has acted like anything but La Nina in the EPAC and Atlantic in regards to hurricane activity.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1976646397710721144

[Kingarabian]

This -PDO era is probably playing a huge role.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1979351979089629364

[LarryWx]

Per Eric Webb, El Niño is likely on the way for next year and it would probably start quite early he says:

La Niña is living on borrowed time.

The extreme -IOD we're currently seeing (right) is about to collapse because the warm water in the Equatorial Indian Ocean will get flushed into the tropical West Pac at depth over the next month in this MJO event's westerly wind burst (left)

-IOD collapse leading to the eventual onset El Niño is something we’ve seen play out as recently as 2023

Worth noting, the timing of this year’s WWBs in the Indian Ocean is well ahead of schedule compared to 2023 & this year’s -IOD is more extreme w/ greater warm water volume

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1986179322584178788?

[LarryWx]

Paul Roundy talks about the Euro showing the El Niño returning next spring. However, I’d advise caution due to a warm bias that I’ve noticed with the Euro based on many years of Nino 3.4 SST anomaly data:

ECMWF clearly moving toward El Niño solutions this spring. Huge Maritime Continent westerly wind event developing, which will move warm water volume from the eastern Indian Ocean to the West Pacific. In the meantime, Pacific trade wind surge will maintain La Niña conditions for a couple more months.

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1986065582991483088?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1986463334116536544

[weeniepatrol]

I agree. The self-reinforcing feedback processes that cause La Niña termination appear robust and uniquely positioned to initiate El Niño next year. I’d say even a moderate to strong event is possible, despite the recency of the 2023 event. Still extremely early, such that any solution is still possible. Something to watch closely for sure.