#664 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Aug 15, 2025 6:39 pm
After Erin, there are three areas that catch my attention.
The NHC recently marked a lemon AOI off the Carolina Coast, although models don't seem particularly thrilled with the development prospects of this disturbance.
Many of the primary global models show a closed, 990s mbar low that develops southeast of Newfoundland around this Sunday and moves to the northeast through the very early part of next week. Overall, it doesn't look to be a long-lived system.
The...well, big one. The recent GFS operationals have consistently spit this out a doomsday hurricane that develops fairly close to the Antilles in Maria-esque fashion and then plows through the Western Atlantic and hits Gulf states or, like today's 18z run showed, Northeast Florida. The CMC also develops this disturbance, albeit earlier and with a northwestward trajectory through the open Atlantic, and the Euro, though not nearly as defined, at least shows hints of this disturbance. If this storm does come to fruition, it would be interesting to see how it responds to the steering patterns in the wake of Erin, as one might imagine that the ridge may try to fill back in after getting hole-punched (with the escape route for Erin).
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.