2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Cpv17
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#661 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 5:55 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Pelicane wrote:GFS against all the models currently with this next wave. Much better defined again in four days than the other models.


The Euro at least shows a sharp wave axis in the area/time the GFS shows this system, so at the very least it doesn't appear to be a ghost storm.

Overall the Atlantic appears favorable to support hurricanes at 55W and west.


Actually, the Euro was the one to sniff it out first. It had it a few different times earlier this week.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#662 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 15, 2025 6:02 pm

18z GFS frame for the record. North of Jacksonville (Jekyll Island/St. Simons/Brunswick GA area)
Image
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#663 Postby TampaWxLurker » Fri Aug 15, 2025 6:33 pm

New Orleans to Jacksonville in 6 hours is a helluva spread.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#664 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Aug 15, 2025 6:39 pm

After Erin, there are three areas that catch my attention.

The NHC recently marked a lemon AOI off the Carolina Coast, although models don't seem particularly thrilled with the development prospects of this disturbance.

Many of the primary global models show a closed, 990s mbar low that develops southeast of Newfoundland around this Sunday and moves to the northeast through the very early part of next week. Overall, it doesn't look to be a long-lived system.

The...well, big one. The recent GFS operationals have consistently spit this out a doomsday hurricane that develops fairly close to the Antilles in Maria-esque fashion and then plows through the Western Atlantic and hits Gulf states or, like today's 18z run showed, Northeast Florida. The CMC also develops this disturbance, albeit earlier and with a northwestward trajectory through the open Atlantic, and the Euro, though not nearly as defined, at least shows hints of this disturbance. If this storm does come to fruition, it would be interesting to see how it responds to the steering patterns in the wake of Erin, as one might imagine that the ridge may try to fill back in after getting hole-punched (with the escape route for Erin).
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#665 Postby LAF92 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 6:39 pm

TampaWxLurker wrote:New Orleans to Jacksonville in 6 hours is a helluva spread.

This far out I’ve seen Texas to Maine. It’s going to continue to swing back and forth
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#666 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 15, 2025 6:44 pm

Depends on whether the ridge breaks down ala Erin, could be OTS next, or just flip back to GOM.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#667 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Aug 15, 2025 6:47 pm

Even though it’s a decent spread, I think it’s a good range of where a potential storm could end up if this would to develop. Ridge will be built was back west by this time, so we shouldn’t see a recurve like Erin. It’s interesting though that there seems to be a trough moving off of CONUS by the time this approaches and the hypothetical storm says “that don’t phase me” and crashes through it.

Next week will be like this week with Erin most likely.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#668 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 7:06 pm

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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#669 Postby Jr0d » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:38 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Pelicane wrote:GFS against all the models currently with this next wave. Much better defined again in four days than the other models.


The Euro at least shows a sharp wave axis in the area/time the GFS shows this system, so at the very least it doesn't appear to be a ghost storm.

Overall the Atlantic appears favorable to support hurricanes at 55W and west.


Actually, the Euro was the one to sniff it out first. It had it a few different times earlier this week.


The EURO AI was showing this early in the week. Something to watch but I think the general rule of thumb applies here. Those in the bullseye 2 weeks+ out are almost certainly not going to get hit.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#670 Postby Coolcruiseman » Fri Aug 15, 2025 10:33 pm

TampaWxLurker wrote:New Orleans to Jacksonville in 6 hours is a helluva spread.


And the 6z had the Daytona area. Definite wiper mode taking place. But something to keep an eye on for trends.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#671 Postby Pas_Bon » Fri Aug 15, 2025 10:41 pm

TampaWxLurker wrote:New Orleans to Jacksonville in 6 hours is a helluva spread.



That’s a long-range operational model for ya. That’s precisely
why so many deservedly loathe the click-bait social media weather pages.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#672 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Aug 15, 2025 11:22 pm

0z GFS keeps this south enough that it catches the northern islands of Lesser Antilles this time around. Also keeps another storm developing right behind it.

Welcome to the busy season!
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#673 Postby LAF92 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 11:46 pm

The classic shooting the gap day 10 953mb
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#674 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Aug 15, 2025 11:49 pm

And, into the Gulf we go!!
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#675 Postby caneseddy » Fri Aug 15, 2025 11:54 pm

3 runs on this landfall

1. Puerto Rico/Northern Leewards as a strong TS/low end CT 1
2. Florida Keys as a major hurricane
3. AL/MS Gulf Coast as a major hurricane (day before Katrina anniversary)
Last edited by caneseddy on Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#676 Postby LAF92 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 11:58 pm

caneseddy wrote:This run is going to have three landfalls: Puerto Rico/nothern Leewards, Florida Keys and somewhere in the Gulf

Mobile Bay looks to be the final landfall
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#677 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:03 am

0Z UK is similar to the 12Z with a TS N of the Leewards moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 56.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 132 15.6N 56.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 22.08.2025 144 16.3N 58.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 22.08.2025 156 18.1N 60.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 23.08.2025 168 19.4N 63.3W 1005 38
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#678 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:14 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z UK is similar to the 12Z with a TS N of the Leewards moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 56.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 132 15.6N 56.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 22.08.2025 144 16.3N 58.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 22.08.2025 156 18.1N 60.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 23.08.2025 168 19.4N 63.3W 1005 38


That is the same wave that the GFS is developing?
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#679 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:15 am

Man i dont like seeing high pressure building off the SE coast on the GFS, thats a classic setup for gulf trouble depending on how this wave evolves over the next week
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#680 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:18 am

IcyTundra wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z UK is similar to the 12Z with a TS N of the Leewards moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 56.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 132 15.6N 56.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 22.08.2025 144 16.3N 58.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 22.08.2025 156 18.1N 60.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 23.08.2025 168 19.4N 63.3W 1005 38


That is the same wave that the GFS is developing?


Yes. So, like for prior runs, it is GFS along with portion of ens members and UK favoring TCG. CMC/Icon say no. Euro not out yet.
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