ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[skillz305]

[cheezyWXguy]

Erin very well may end up making a run at Irma’s record for most intense hurricane by MSLP in the open Atlantic, which stands at 914 mb.

I know Irma held the record at the time, but doesn’t Dorian hold the record now at 910mb?

[Teban54]

NHC now forecasting 145 kt peak:

INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 62.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

[Beef Stew]

Erin very well may end up making a run at Irma’s record for most intense hurricane by MSLP in the open Atlantic, which stands at 914 mb.

I know Irma held the record at the time, but doesn’t Dorian hold the record now at 910mb?

It does, you’re absolutely correct. I completely forgot about that- thanks for the correction!

[ScottNAtlanta]

My guess right now is that the trough digging into the TN Valley is what is supposed to erode the western side of the ridge. I'm not sure if the timing is exactly what was modeled though.

[NDG]

I don't see the weakness as of yet

https://i.imgur.com/GmXw3Go.gif

The first weakness is bypassing it to its NE, next weakness is coming down Hudson Bay to SE Canada to weaken the ridge to the west of Bermuda.

[BobHarlem]

Erin's wobbled a bit south on the San Juan radar, but still has been heading due west the entire time the eye has been visible on the radar (since about 8am edt this morning)

[FrontRunner]

Just realized the fly in the ointment is the 155 kt FL was at 750 mb which rounds down (0.87 reduction) to 135.7 kt, so it’s gonna be very close to whether or not NHC goes Cat 5. I’d assume the dropping pressure should lean towards it? Depends on whether AF (flying at 700mb) gets higher winds before the advisory and looming EWRC.

They didn't address it in the discussion, but good call-out for us to keep in mind. Presumably that was their rationale.

[AnnularCane]

I went to bed with a cat two, and woke up to a near cat five, nice job Erin.

Biting my tongue with this one.

[NDG]

NHC now forecasting 145 kt peak:

INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 62.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

And the initial fix is not at 19.7N
19.6N at best lol.

[Kingarabian]

Wobbling WSW past 20 frames.

[Powellrm]

Frankly almost unbelievable to be looking at a likely Cat 5 hurricane this soon. I knew it poised to blowup yesterday but not this much... Yet another case of ERI, is this the new normal going forward?

A day or two ago I was seeing runs from the ICON model showing 910-915mb at peak. Which was pretty wild, but it’s hard to discount that given how quickly these hurricanes intensify over the last few years. I know that it happens, and it has been happening quite frequently over the last several years. But it’s still shocking to me every single time to watch the pressure drop like a brick. Was it a 8mb per hour rate there for a while?

[cheezyWXguy]

Erin’s satellite appearance continues to improve, and I think there’s still a fair amount of time before whatever inevitable ewrc impacts take effect. Would be a shock to see erin not make cat5 at this point.

[Nimbus]

Given Erin's strength I would bet the anti-cyclone itself is the main-factor steering Erin.
If that is the case, the longer before an EWRC can occur, the longer Erin tracks due west.

Is that the anti-cyclone north of Hispaniola tugging it westward?

It looks to me like the high pressure over the southeastern US is stronger than forecast, also that trough in the TN valley doesn't look right either

The trough in the TN valley might dig and sweep off the coast of Georgia.
Erin is going to be a monster though.
Also the counterclockwise flow around 98L kind of fed the western periphery of the high.

Next couple model runs we can compare the 200 mb isobars against the WV image.

[eastcoastFL]

Thankfully Erin isn't forecast to make any direct hits so far but it is scary to see what the Atlantic is capable of producing right now. The next couple of weeks and months could be interesting.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

Remember this is looking high up due to distance so any change in tilt will look like a movement that might not indicate the true center location.

[aspen]

Odd that they went with 135 kt after two consecutive 155+ kt FL measurements and continued deepening. But we have another AF pass coming up shortly so maybe that’ll be enough to pull the trigger for a special update.

[GCANE]

Given Erin's strength I would bet the anti-cyclone itself is the main-factor steering Erin.
If that is the case, the longer before an EWRC can occur, the longer Erin tracks due west.

Is that the anti-cyclone north of Hispaniola tugging it westward?

YES

[Category5Kaiju]

I woke up this morning, checked the intensity update, and I kid you not I literally spit the water out of my mouth when I saw it.

This is officially the strongest August hurricane, when factoring in wind speeds and pressure, since Dean in 2007.

[GCANE]

NHC is reporting an outer eyewall has started to form.
Good, EWRC is underway