ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

NHC is reporting an outer eyewall has started to form.
Good, EWRC is underway

Does that mean they’re gonna hold off on making the jump to cat five

[WaveBreaking]

916.3 mbar extrap/14kts

[Hypercane_Kyle]

168mph SFMR, I’d say Erin is a solid Category 5 at this point.

[Hurricane2022]

I have a bad feeling that the NHC may miss a C5 peak of Erin. Recon has found 916 extrap, but no FL winds above 150 kt, like a few hours ago, and the ERC is already visible both on Infrared and Radar. I hope I'm wrong, though

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC is reporting an outer eyewall has started to form.
Good, EWRC is underway

We will see. Irma kept aborting its EWRC in a similar
location and intensity.

[FrontRunner]

I have a bad feeling that the NHC may miss a C5 peak of Erin. Recon has found 916 extrap, but no FL winds above 150 kt, like a few hours ago, and the ERC is already visible on Infrared and Radar. I hope I'm wrong, though

Pressure is still dropping though, so still some time for winds to catch up.

[Iceresistance]

What did I wake up to?

[GCANE]

Maybe slowing down a bit.
Seeing a hot tower fire on the new eyewall directly south of the CoC.

[cheezyWXguy]

NHC is reporting an outer eyewall has started to form.
Good, EWRC is underway

We will see. Irma kept aborting its EWRC in a similar
location and intensity.

Even though one is likely starting, it will still likely be some time before it affects the pressure gradient and levels off the winds. I see no evidence yet of a double wind maximum on FL wind yet even though erin is likely in the initial stages of restructuring.

[Travorum]

Looks like they pulled the trigger:

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

[GCANE]

Maybe slowing down a bit.
Seeing a hot tower fire on the new eyewall directly south of the CoC.

Interesting seeing current eyewall and new eyewall firing hot towers in sync.
Could be sometime before the EWRC is complete.

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_ ... MC42fX0%3D

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like they pulled the trigger:

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

Yay!
 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1956735320721940879

[GCANE]

Looks like a massive mesovortex on the inner eyewall directly south of the CoC.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like they pulled the trigger:

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

That pressure drop did it for them. Second Cat 5 in the MDR in 3 years after Lee. And once again the Atlantic beats the WPac to having a C5 which is laughable lol.

[GCANE]

Looks like a massive mesovortex on the inner eyewall directly south of the CoC.

WOW, never seen that before.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, woke up to a monster!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the Virgin Islands are getting hammered with rain

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC Briefing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gto2ao7zxgg

[Cachondo23]

Jogging a bit north now

[cycloneye]

What saved Puerto Rico from suffering another direct hit like Maria was that significant northward movement it took after leaving Africa. That was caused by a trough near the Canary Islands that prompted that movement. The graphic is from the best track.