Aug 12th run




Aug 9th run




And just for fun, the horrible Euro AI model. Oh, I suppose AI is just to be used for location and not intensity?

Aug 12th

Aug 9th

Moderator: S2k Moderators
tolakram wrote:Just for the record, today's 12Z model forecast 96 hours and 168 hours ago.
Aug 12th run
https://i.imgur.com/XT9hUNi.png
https://i.imgur.com/n9o5jKe.png
https://i.imgur.com/hodaKP2.png
https://i.imgur.com/pxeKgjI.png
Aug 9th run
https://i.imgur.com/HJ7gBrn.png
https://i.imgur.com/YwTuJ8t.png
https://i.imgur.com/ojhgfTZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/ubILokO.png
And just for fun, the horrible Euro AI model. Oh, I suppose AI is just to be used for location and not intensity?![]()
Aug 12th
https://i.imgur.com/4SNxP7W.png
Aug 9th
https://i.imgur.com/CebwSPZ.png
BobHarlem wrote:Closest OBX approach on 12z Icon. Minimum pressure was 915 on the run, which may be high now.
https://i.imgur.com/CMfkPf9.png
BobHarlem wrote:12z GFS first point is too far north also, however the overall track hasn't changed much. Init was 986mb.
Again it's unlikely for the models to fully get the intensity increase and west shift this morning until 0z. (18z maybe some) The higher level steering may adjust it some, but I doubt it changes too drastically in the long term.
Slight left shift, which leaves 70.8W is the "West wall" out to on the 12z to 87 hours so far.
.
BobHarlem wrote:Fairly significant shift left on the 12z ukmet. 956mb lowest pressure on it.
https://i.imgur.com/Qje4KX5.png
BobHarlem wrote:12z Euro's closest approach to OBX, quite a bit left of the 0z. Lowest pressure was 944mb, init was 996mb. TS force winds along the extreme eastern OBX. So Icon, UK, and Euro are showing TS impacts on the outer banks, GFS is not.
https://i.imgur.com/8zchPHF.png
Stormlover70 wrote:Still out to sea. No threat to conus. Good news
Stormlover70 wrote:Still out to sea. No threat to conus. Good news
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