ATL: ERIN - Models

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#501 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 16, 2025 10:17 am

Just for the record, today's 12Z model forecast 96 hours and 168 hours ago.

Aug 12th run
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Aug 9th run
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And just for fun, the horrible Euro AI model. Oh, I suppose AI is just to be used for location and not intensity? :lol:

Aug 12th
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Aug 9th
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#502 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 10:27 am

Closest OBX approach on 12z Icon. Minimum pressure was 915 on the run, which may be high now. 18z probably will be a little different, but I don't expect models to react well to the changes until 0z.

This is left of the 6z.
Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#503 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 16, 2025 10:35 am

tolakram wrote:Just for the record, today's 12Z model forecast 96 hours and 168 hours ago.

Aug 12th run
https://i.imgur.com/XT9hUNi.png
https://i.imgur.com/n9o5jKe.png
https://i.imgur.com/hodaKP2.png
https://i.imgur.com/pxeKgjI.png

Aug 9th run
https://i.imgur.com/HJ7gBrn.png
https://i.imgur.com/YwTuJ8t.png
https://i.imgur.com/ojhgfTZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/ubILokO.png

And just for fun, the horrible Euro AI model. Oh, I suppose AI is just to be used for location and not intensity? :lol:

Aug 12th
https://i.imgur.com/4SNxP7W.png

Aug 9th
https://i.imgur.com/CebwSPZ.png

Track wise, CMC was the closest.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#504 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 10:42 am

BobHarlem wrote:Closest OBX approach on 12z Icon. Minimum pressure was 915 on the run, which may be high now.
https://i.imgur.com/CMfkPf9.png

Recon just found it at 915, so yeah icon's lowest point is even underestimating this thing.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#505 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 10:58 am

12z GFS first point is too far north also, however the overall track hasn't changed much. Init was 986mb.

Again it's unlikely for the models to fully get the intensity increase and west shift this morning until 0z. (18z maybe some) The higher level steering may adjust it some, but I doubt it changes too drastically in the long term.

Slight left shift, which leaves 70.8W is the "West wall" out to on the 12z to 87 hours so far.

Pressure wise lowpoint reaches 939 around 90 hours out.

Bermuda latitude
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Aug 16, 2025 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#506 Postby syfr » Sat Aug 16, 2025 11:11 am

BobHarlem wrote:12z GFS first point is too far north also, however the overall track hasn't changed much. Init was 986mb.

Again it's unlikely for the models to fully get the intensity increase and west shift this morning until 0z. (18z maybe some) The higher level steering may adjust it some, but I doubt it changes too drastically in the long term.

Slight left shift, which leaves 70.8W is the "West wall" out to on the 12z to 87 hours so far.

.



That 70.8 is pretty close to the NHC 11AM track which has about a 71.5 "west wall" .
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#507 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 11:32 am

12z CMC's western most extent is 71.6W Lowest pressure is 969mb (before bermuda anyway it gets lower when its heading out to sea), init pressure was 986. Slight left shift from 0z.

Image at bermuda latitude:
Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#508 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 11:47 am

Fairly significant shift left on the 12z ukmet. 956mb lowest pressure on it.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#509 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:32 pm

HWRF and HAFS-A/B all seem to show Erin in the middle of the EWRC, followed by successful completion tonight and another round of intensification until late Sunday/early Monday. Shear picks up afterwards and degrades the new, larger eye.

If this verifies, we could see a second Cat 5 peak tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#510 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:32 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Fairly significant shift left on the 12z ukmet. 956mb lowest pressure on it.
https://i.imgur.com/Qje4KX5.png

ICON and UKMET current tracks would bring solid TS conditions to shores of NC.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#511 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:49 pm

12z Euro's closest approach to OBX, quite a bit left of the 0z. Lowest pressure was 944mb, init was 996mb. TS force winds along the extreme eastern OBX. So Icon, UK, and Euro are showing TS impacts on the outer banks, GFS is not.

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#512 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:58 pm

12z Euro shifted west and is closer to the ICON and UKMET.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#513 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 1:38 pm

12z HAFS-A -- Hatteras/Rodanthe visible in the top left corner:
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12z HAFS-B -- not quite as close (just off the edge)
Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#514 Postby invest man » Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:03 pm

Does any of the 12z models take into consideration the cat 5 strength and the more west than north movement? Models seem to be shifting a little west and getting closer to ENC. Which begs the question how close this can get to the coast understanding it will eventually turn northward???
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#515 Postby Teban54 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:08 pm

BobHarlem wrote:12z Euro's closest approach to OBX, quite a bit left of the 0z. Lowest pressure was 944mb, init was 996mb. TS force winds along the extreme eastern OBX. So Icon, UK, and Euro are showing TS impacts on the outer banks, GFS is not.

https://i.imgur.com/8zchPHF.png

Initializing what became a Cat 5 in a few hours at 996 mb is quite something :lol:
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#516 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:08 pm

Somehow only now realizing I haven't posted here all season, but I certainly wasn't expecting to wake up today and see a Cat 5, and strange seeing in mid-August, which has been underperforming in recent years
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#517 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:25 pm

NHC track now on the right side of model guidance. Look for gradual adjustments west moving forward.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#518 Postby Stormlover70 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:31 pm

Still out to sea. No threat to conus. Good news
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#519 Postby Teban54 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:34 pm

Stormlover70 wrote:Still out to sea. No threat to conus. Good news

Even though it's still very unlikely, I still wouldn't rule out an Outer Banks landfall. At least, the chances are higher than 24 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#520 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:38 pm

Stormlover70 wrote:Still out to sea. No threat to conus. Good news

No direct landfall threat, but not no threat... on many of the models the outer banks get close enough for TS Winds. (Plus erosion/overwash and wave/rip current issues are particularly likely along the OBX and even a bit further north along the coast).
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