ATL: ERIN - Models

['CaneFreak]

18Z GFS shifted west

[ronjon]

Yeah 18z GFS shifted about 100 mi west in the 4 day time frame. 12z Euro shifted west and is still 50-100 miles west of the 18z GFS at 4 days. GFS is also showing Erin moving faster than Euro. With the shifts west today in ICON, UKMET, Euro, GFS and HAFs, NHC will have to adjust their track guidance west in the 4-5 day time frame. Still looks to remain offshore Hatteras but getting uncomfortably closer now.

[ronjon]

18z HAF-A now brings hurricane force winds to Cape Hatteras, 50 mph winds to eastern NC, and tropical storm force winds to southern New England (Conn, RI, and SE Mass). This is mainly due to predicted large increase in the size and windfield of Erin.

[BobHarlem]

All models are closer to the OBX than Bermuda, but how close is different. Icon's the closest (And gets up to the 50-55knot range in the OBX), followed by the UKMet and Euro (which has moved right some). The GFS is faster and further east. UK And Especially 6z icon show tropical storm force winds there. Euro and GFS are too far east for the OBX to feel much direct impact, although the euro could be still close enough for brief TS Force. Heavy surf and erosion regardless.

Westernmost point/lowest pressure:
6z icon: 74.6W 907mb
6z gfs: 72.2W 939mb
0z euro: 73.2W 941mb
0z uk: 74.2w 950mb

06z GFS:


06z Icon:


0z Euro:


0z UKMET


6z hafs-a:


6z hafs-b:

[syfr]

18z HAF-A now brings hurricane force winds to Cape Hatteras, 50 mph winds to eastern NC, and tropical storm force winds to southern New England (Conn, RI, and SE Mass). This is mainly due to predicted large increase in the size and windfield of Erin.

Thankfully, this seems quite an outlier with this mornings NHC wind field showing only a slight chance of TS force winds affecting the OBX on Wed AM.

The Westward Wall stays about 72.2W and Erin continues to shoot the gap between OBX and Bermuda almost perfectly on it's way OTS

[TallyTracker]

The OBX and New England are still well within the range of a possible graze (seeming more likely) or direct hit. If the ridge is even only a little stronger at this point, it will rapidly push greater impacts into the coast. As it is, small vessels are going to be restricted to port for most of the next week due to crazy surf.

[syfr]

The OBX and New England are still well within the range of a possible graze (seeming more likely) or direct hit. If the ridge is even only a little stronger at this point, it will rapidly push greater impacts into the coast. As it is, small vessels are going to be restricted to port for most of the next week due to crazy surf.

I agree that this is possible, especially with a storm that is moving relatively slowly as Erin seems to be. Its just my observation that especially within 3 days, the NHC track guidance is usually pretty darned good.

It is indeed going to be a bumpy ride for the Atlantic coast. The surfers out at the OBX will be ecstatic .

[BobHarlem]

12z icon closest approach to Turks and Caicos (Shows why they are under a TS Warning now) Lowest pressure on 12z icon 906mb.

Slightly right of the 6z, but still TS Force winds along the OBX.

[Hurricane2022]

Absolute Cinema.

[ronjon]

Interesting that in NHCs 11 am disc they stated that additional track adjustments to the west may occur in the 3 to 4 day forecast track. They also indicated that OBX (Hatteras) may see strong winds in 72-96 hours not accounted for in their wind gusts probability numbers due to Erin's large size.

[Nimbus]

The OBX and New England are still well within the range of a possible graze (seeming more likely) or direct hit. If the ridge is even only a little stronger at this point, it will rapidly push greater impacts into the coast. As it is, small vessels are going to be restricted to port for most of the next week due to crazy surf.

I agree that this is possible, especially with a storm that is moving relatively slowly as Erin seems to be. Its just my observation that especially within 3 days, the NHC track guidance is usually pretty darned good.

It is indeed going to be a bumpy ride for the Atlantic coast. The surfers out at the OBX will be ecstatic .

The models have been pretty good at 72 hour forecasts and when they do get confused like they did with Irma and Andrew they let you know.

I remember the Afternoon of August 20, 1992 the NHC was not concerned about Andrew making landfall on the CONUS at all, it wasn't till the trough split on the 21st that the forecast broke. Erin still has a favorable environment ahead and humans still can't see the forecast evolution clearly beyond 24 hours like the models do.

[syfr]

5PM NHC moves the track a bit west (30 mi?) to 72.5 or so.

[Jr0d]

The OBX and New England are still well within the range of a possible graze (seeming more likely) or direct hit. If the ridge is even only a little stronger at this point, it will rapidly push greater impacts into the coast. As it is, small vessels are going to be restricted to port for most of the next week due to crazy surf.

I agree that this is possible, especially with a storm that is moving relatively slowly as Erin seems to be. Its just my observation that especially within 3 days, the NHC track guidance is usually pretty darned good.

It is indeed going to be a bumpy ride for the Atlantic coast. The surfers out at the OBX will be ecstatic .

The models have been pretty good at 72 hour forecasts and when they do get confused like they did with Irma and Andrew they let you know.

I remember the Afternoon of August 20, 1992 the NHC was not concerned about Andrew making landfall on the CONUS at all, it wasn't till the trough split on the 21st that the forecast broke. Erin still has a favorable environment ahead and humans still can't see the forecast evolution clearly beyond 24 hours like the models do.


https://i.imgur.com/nrJNahX.gif

Forecasts and especially computer models have come a long way since 1992. If Andrew happened today, I guarantee the forecast would be much more accurate, they were still using veteran meteorologists drawing weather models to make forecasts back then, and many believed(some still do) the gulfstream pushes storms north. I remember this when it made landfall and I was a kid living near Titusville, Florida and we were concerned about getting hit.

That said, it is likely the OBX will need a tropical warning maybe even hurricane warning when Erin makes her close approach as well as at minimum mandatory evacuations for tourists and those in beachfront houses and communities prone to getting washed out. Given how big the windfield is forecast to be, I expect significant erosion that will wash away roads(again) as well as some houses.

Hopefully its just the GFS and not the start of a trend of a west shift that could bring hurricane conditions to the OBX.

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs shifted left (closer to Euro now)
18z icon also shifted left.

Enough to put a few TS gusts along the OBX probably. Probably close enough to get evacs going for around Hatteras/Rodanthe.
Not enough time for images tonight.

[TampaWxLurker]

So far impressed with ICON for calling the western solution a few days ago.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/1957199209523802379



Looks like a slower Erin is a legitimate possibility?

[OuterBanker]

18z gfs shifted left (closer to Euro now)
18z icon also shifted left.

Enough to put a few TS gusts along the OBX probably. Probably close enough to get evacs going for around Hatteras/Rodanthe.
Not enough time for images tonight.

Could happen, yes.

NCC055-182101-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Local Area Emergency
NC Dare County Emergency Management
Relayed by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
601 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...DARE COUNTY EM: MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERED OF DARE COUNTY
HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS ISLAND)...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Dare County
Emergency Management.

DARE COUNTY EM: STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED WITH MANDATORY
EVACUATION OF DARE COUNTY HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS
ISLAND). VISITORS MUST EVACUATE STARTING AT 10AM 8/18/25.
RESIDENTS START AT 8AM 8/19/25. MORE AT DARENC.GOV/HURRICANEERIN

[72Packer]

18z gfs shifted left (closer to Euro now)
18z icon also shifted left.

Enough to put a few TS gusts along the OBX probably. Probably close enough to get evacs going for around Hatteras/Rodanthe.
Not enough time for images tonight.

I am surprised Ocracoke was not included also. It's evacuation by ferry only with there likely to be overcast on ferry routes to Hatteras Island.

Could happen, yes.

NCC055-182101-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Local Area Emergency
NC Dare County Emergency Management
Relayed by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
601 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...DARE COUNTY EM: MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERED OF DARE COUNTY
HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS ISLAND)...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Dare County
Emergency Management.

DARE COUNTY EM: STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED WITH MANDATORY
EVACUATION OF DARE COUNTY HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A (HATTERAS
ISLAND). VISITORS MUST EVACUATE STARTING AT 10AM 8/18/25.
RESIDENTS START AT 8AM 8/19/25. MORE AT DARENC.GOV/HURRICANEERIN

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: furthest NW and strongest run yet while SE of NC at closest point (942 mb!). It is then a mere 135 miles SE of Hatteras as of 8AM Thu!

HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 68.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2025 0 22.0N 68.9W 938 101
1200UTC 18.08.2025 12 23.0N 70.7W 949 96
0000UTC 19.08.2025 24 23.9N 72.0W 968 69
1200UTC 19.08.2025 36 25.3N 72.8W 969 71
0000UTC 20.08.2025 48 27.2N 73.8W 964 60
1200UTC 20.08.2025 60 29.2N 74.3W 957 81
0000UTC 21.08.2025 72 31.6N 74.8W 949 91
1200UTC 21.08.2025 84 33.6N 73.8W 942 82
0000UTC 22.08.2025 96 35.4N 71.9W 943 69
1200UTC 22.08.2025 108 36.1N 69.7W 942 70
0000UTC 23.08.2025 120 36.9N 67.7W 947 63
1200UTC 23.08.2025 132 37.9N 66.1W 951 66
0000UTC 24.08.2025 144 39.3N 64.3W 955 58
1200UTC 24.08.2025 156 40.9N 62.4W 956 55
0000UTC 25.08.2025 168 42.8N 58.8W 964 52

[kevin]

A few days ago we were all (including me) already giving the win to GFS and the Euro. But it now seems that Erin is once again another big win for ICON. It is the only model that showed the more SW track of Erin early on and is pretty much spot on with its current location if you use the models from 3 - 5 days ago. Even the often best performing TVCN was about 3 degrees too far north if you use the models from Thursday morning. The Euro eventually also shifted west, but GFS was way too far east for a very long time.