ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[GCANE]

Drop splashed at 937mb

[GCANE]

Drop splashed at 937mb

22.8N 70.5W
Keep shifting track west

[weeniepatrol]

sonde supports 936

[GCANE]

Rain rate up to 68 mm/hr.
Looks like latent heat release is working to strengthen Erin.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1957403624906141874

[weeniepatrol]

Woah. Air Force dropsonde supports 933

[kevin]

Recon clearly shows how big Erin's wind field has become.

[GCANE]

AF304 drop splashed at 935mb
22.8N 70.4W

[weeniepatrol]

[NDG]

AF recon's dropsonde missed the true center of the eye, SSW winds at 20 knots, meaning that is is a little further west.

[kevin]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

[BobHarlem]

Some of the islands getting into the main shield area.

[NDG]

Nice wobble to the west since sunrise.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1957415075670544528

[NDG]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

There they go with their extrap track fixes instead of actual recon fixes.

[Kazmit]

A hurricane watch would’ve been a good idea for the Turks and Caicos, lol

[Fancy1002]

Back to heading due west.

[Xyls]

Wowie. Haven't really been commenting but watching this storm and looks like it is getting closer to land every run. Assuming still no landfall. But curious to know later in the week how close this could get to Atlantic Canada. Major wildfires going on in this area at the moment and wondering if this could cause high winds to exacerbate the issue here without bringing any rain?

[kevin]

NOAA2 found 133 kt FL winds, definitely enough for an upgrade to 120 kt.

[TampaWxLurker]

Not to get too model thread talk in the main thread, but boy the ICON did a good job sniffing out this West tendency for track. Clearly the NHC didn't buy it. But this has got to be catching people in the Turks and Caicos by surprise. A Hurricane Watch wouldn't have been a bad idea.

[kevin]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

There they go with their extrap track fixes instead of actual recon fixes.

Yeah maybe they're waiting for the 11am advisory to update their track. But it's a bit weird, both recon (including dropsondes) and IR/VIS of the storm all clearly show the center being at 22.8N.