ATL: ERIN - Models

[ronjon]

A few days ago we were all (including me) already giving the win to GFS and the Euro. But it now seems that Erin is once again another big win for ICON. It is the only model that showed the more SW track of Erin early on and is pretty much spot on with its current location if you use the models from 3 - 5 days ago. Even the often best performing TVCN was about 3 degrees too far north if you use the models from Thursday morning. The Euro eventually also shifted west, but GFS was way too far east for a very long time.

The GFS always seems to have to play catchup to the Euro and ICON. It was either Helene or Milton (sorry memories bad) from last year it consistently had the storm way west into the FL panhandle - so much so that it pulled the consensus track west at landfall by about 30 miles. Icon had nailed the landfall.

[TallyTracker]

A few days ago we were all (including me) already giving the win to GFS and the Euro. But it now seems that Erin is once again another big win for ICON. It is the only model that showed the more SW track of Erin early on and is pretty much spot on with its current location if you use the models from 3 - 5 days ago. Even the often best performing TVCN was about 3 degrees too far north if you use the models from Thursday morning. The Euro eventually also shifted west, but GFS was way too far east for a very long time.

The GFS always seems to have to play catchup to the Euro and ICON. It was either Helene or Milton (sorry memories bad) from last year it consistently had the storm way west into the FL panhandle - so much so that it pulled the consensus track west at landfall by about 30 miles. Icon had nailed the landfall.

It was Helene. That 30 miles got the eye away from my house.

[BobHarlem]

6z icon gets to 74.4W, lowest pressure 908mb midday Wednesday.

closest to OBX here:

[jlauderdal]

6z icon gets to 74.4W, lowest pressure 908mb midday Wednesday.

closest to OBX here:
https://i.imgur.com/KilwwfE.png

Its been consistent if nothing else and must be taken seriously, especially at this range.

[TampaWxLurker]

All hail ICON.

[syfr]

We'll see how/if the two tracks converge.

They're not tremendously different at this point. NHC has the ultimate eastern turn earlier, and drops it from a Major above about 33N

[REDHurricane]

5-day forecast gif from the 8/13 12z model runs to now, ranked by track accuracy:

#1: ICON



#2: Euro AI



#3: ECMWF



#4: GFS


Disclaimer: I didn't actually do the math but these rankings seem pretty apparent (except for #2 and #3, hard to tell for sure with those) based on the eye test, if someone wants to calculate mean track error for each of these 80 model runs to verify (lol) then please feel free to double check my work

[GCANE]

HMON is now making a big shift to the west

[kevin]

06z Euro joins ICON in showing a secondary C5 peak for Erin (wind estimates from Euro are often conservative but 907mb must be at least a low-end C5).

[BobHarlem]

slight left shift near the obx on 12z icon, 74.5W is western most which is .1 right of the earlier run, 913mb lowest pressure

[BobHarlem]

12z UKMET is left of icon, and a left shift from the 0z. Western post point is 74.7W (at 31.7N) lowest pressure this run is 947mb.

[ronjon]

I suspect if 12z UKMET track verifies, Cape Hatteras may be within the hurricane wind radius - which now is 120 miles from center. In 3 days, they may even extend further with Erin's projected increase in size.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro, another left shift here from 0z. Westernmost: 74.4W, lowest pressure 919mb I'd expect TS Watches up on the OBX tonight or tomorrow.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro wave heights:

[Woofde]

12z Euro, another left shift here from 0z. Westernmost: 74.4W, lowest pressure 919mb I'd expect TS Watches up on the OBX tonight or tomorrow.

I was honestly expecting the ICON to be the one to cave to the consensus, not the other way around. It's really knocking it out of the park with this storm, consistently keeping it south and west. I wonder what's different with it that allows the model to pick up on patterns so far in advance of the rest.

[IcyTundra]

12z Euro, another left shift here from 0z. Westernmost: 74.4W, lowest pressure 919mb I'd expect TS Watches up on the OBX tonight or tomorrow.
https://i.imgur.com/khy6iHK.png

I was honestly expecting the ICON to be the one to cave to the consensus, not the other way around. It's really knocking it out of the park with this storm, consistently keeping it south and west. I wonder what's different with it that allows the model to pick up on patterns so far in advance of the rest.

The ICON has certainly had its fair share of wins the last couple seasons. It consistently showed Beryl taking a more eastern track into the Central Texas coast when the GFS and Euro were insisting on a Mexico landfall. Maybe the NHC should consider including it with the other models they use as guidance in future seasons.

[BobHarlem]

Very slight left shift in the 18z icon close to OBX. Overall Western most point 74.5W, lowest pressure 910mb

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GFS is a bit left of 12z, closer to the Icon now

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro (usually paywalled) is to the left also
 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1957592924847321442

[Jr0d]

Looking at the simulated IR model for the GFS and CMC, even 12 hours from now they both have much different solutions for strengthen. The CMC shows Erin struggling and never regaining a core while the GFS(as well as the EURO and ICON) show Erin to really ramp up tonight.

This is GFS vs CMC comparison for later tonight: