Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (10/60)

[eastcoastFL]

If the southern lobe wins out, that’ll be interesting because it’s pretty far south. Hopefully we get an invest soon.

I wonder if the southern lobe does win out will that increase its chances of reaching the GOM?

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS

[Stratton23]

eastcoastfl, yup if the southern lobe wins out, their is a good chsnce this ends up in the gulf

[SFLcane]

[hurricane2025]

Also, the GFS is notorious for being too strong with troughs.

[Weathertracker96]

Also, the GFS is notorious for being too strong with troughs.

So the GFS is too strong on troughs and EURO is usually biased on ridges?
I really hope we get an invest soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

[lsuhurricane]

GEFS trend (last three runs) has been weaker and west.

[KeysRedWine]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

It rarely rains in the keys, especially this year.

[Travorum]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

It depends on the weather patterns each year, this year central and north Florida have gotten a reasonable amount of afternoon thunderstorms but SE Florida has been pretty dry. Last year was pretty wet across central FL, 2023 was a very dry year. Here's the current drought map (note that this is an improvement from a few weeks ago):

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1956361524357775644

[cycloneye]

Zoomed to the rotation.

[SFLcane]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

It depends on the weather patterns each year, this year central and north Florida have gotten a reasonable amount of afternoon thunderstorms but SE Florida has been pretty dry. Last year was pretty wet across central FL, 2023 was a very dry year. Here's the current drought map (note that this is an improvement from a few weeks ago):

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1956361524357775644

I am the NWS coop for lake worth and i can tell you there has been not much of any improvement in metro se florida i have recorded a little over an inch of rainfall in the last 25 days at my coop site. We need the rain!

[wzrgirl1]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

Yes we have absolutely had quite a few afternoon thunderstorms especially the second and third weeks in July but they do not last long and definitely not enough to make a dent in the drought unfortunately. We could use a good soaking but I need to be careful what I wish for. I don't want a Tropical Storm ETA redux from 2020. That was overkill.

[Stratton23]

cycloneye yeah that area looks pretty suspect haha, i definitely do not trust the global models right now

[jlauderdal]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

There has been a ridge in place since early June with a few weak troughs but we have a 14+ inch deficit in Fort Lauderdale. We dont even get clouds to tale the edge off, its more like Palm Springs than Palm Beach.

[jlauderdal]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/CLS7JSPZ/vvvv.gif

Cmon, we can always find something hitting SFL.

[jlauderdal]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

It depends on the weather patterns each year, this year central and north Florida have gotten a reasonable amount of afternoon thunderstorms but SE Florida has been pretty dry. Last year was pretty wet across central FL, 2023 was a very dry year. Here's the current drought map (note that this is an improvement from a few weeks ago):

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1956361524357775644

I am the NWS coop for lake worth and i can tell you there has been not much of any improvement in metro se florida i have recorded a little over an inch of rainfall in the last 25 days at my coop site. We need the rain!

Mine:

https://dex.cocorahs.org/stations/FL-BW-159

[Stratton23]

looks like their might be some mid level rotation trying to develop underneath that convection thats really far south, i have a. feeling global models are going to completely whiff on this feature

[cycloneye]

Recon for thursday.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15.0N 54.0W FOR 21/1200Z.

[IcyTundra]

The 12Z GEFS has two clusters for possible tracks.

1. Stronger earlier and is able to feel the weakness in the subtropical ridge turning out to sea in a similar position to Erin.

2. Weaker and able to make it further west into the GOM.